Netanyahu's 'non-ideological' argument
The Washington Post's Jackson Diehl leaves us with the impression that Prime Minister Netanyahu can impress President Obama with a non-ideological argument. The argument, which Netanyahu has laid out publicly in several speeches in the last year, goes like this: Times have changed in the Middle East since 1993, when Israel and the Palestinians concluded the Oslo accords calling for a gradual handover of the West Bank and Gaza Strip to Palestinian government. Then, the main threat to Israelis in the territories was Palestinian rock-throwers. Now, thanks to the growing power of Iran, Israel is surrounded by tens of thousands of short- and medium-range missiles. There are thousands in southern Lebanon, from which Israel withdrew in 2000 and which was subsequently occupied by Hezbollah. And there are hundreds, maybe thousands more in Gaza, from which Israel withdrew in 2005, and which was later taken over by Hamas.Netanyahu has been making the same arguments since his Bar Ilan speech in June 2009. And Obama hasn't been listening. Now, with midterm elections in sight and the Democratic party in big trouble, Obama is listening, but he is not hearing. If Obama really were hearing Netanyahu's argument, he would be telling the 'Palestinians' that if they don't come to the table it's all over, that he's not going to press Israel to make any more concessions. But he's not doing that. He's still looking for Israel to make more concessions. He's just being a little more charming about it.
Israel, Netanyahu told Obama, has to be able to ensure that the West Bank won’t also become an Iranian missile base following a peace settlement. The logic of his argument is hard to refute, from any reasonable standpoint. Who would contend that there is no danger that missiles would be smuggled to the new Palestinian state from the east, from Syria, Lebanon or Jordan? Is it reasonable to suppose that a UN peacekeeping force would suffice to protect the border, given the failure of such a force to stop smuggling to Lebanon?
That’s not to say that Netanyahu has come up with a trump card to block the peace process. He has said himself that there are ways to solve the security problem, including a phase-in of Palestinian control over the eastern border of the state. But the Israeli leader is demonstrating that he has figured out a way to talk to a president who hasn’t displayed much sentimentality when it comes to Israel. Forget about sentiment; make a good argument.
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 4:22 AM
3 Comments:
True dat. According to Barry Rubin, it'll probably be six months before Obama resumes putting pressure on Israel. And whether he can do it depends on how strong his political position is after the mid-term elections in November. Obama is sucking up to Israel for now to save the Democratic Party from defeat in the election later this year. It has nothing to do with a change of policy towards Israel. What's changed for the time being is the atmosphere.
The only way to change the American orientation toward the Middle East is at the ballot box. Individual decision-makers are too stubborn to change their minds, so we have to vote in new decision-makers...
From Manhigut Yehudit, in Hebrew:
שרידות או ייעוד (Survival or Destiny)
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