The Security Council's "no" votes
Laura Rozen does some vote-counting on Iran sanctions at the UN Security Council. [I]t's a particularly tough Security Council, with key current non-permament members of the 15 member body such as Brazil and Turkey not certain to support such a resolution, Lebanon likely to vote against it, and at least one permanent member, China, also reluctant. Three past UN Security Council resolutions on Iran passed overwhelmingly, with no "no" votes and only a few abstentions.And she doesn't mention Russia, Nigeria, Austria or Japan (among others), who are currently non-permanent Security Council members, any of whom could vote against sanctions.
What could go wrong?
The picture at the top is Ahmadinejad with Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan.
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 11:21 PM
4 Comments:
In yet another tantrum, Erdogan wants to recall the Turkish ambassador to US.
"US House panel approves Armenian genocide measure
Published: 03.04.10, 22:59 / Israel News
A US congressional panel voted Thursday to label as "genocide" the World War One-era massacre of Armenians by Turkish forces, despite pressure from the Obama administration and Turkey to drop the matter.
The controversial measure passed the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee in a closer-than-expected vote of 23-22. "(Reuters)
Last time around the house was told not to vote. So there was no vote up or down. There was an actual vote this time even though close.
Who knows, perhaps some day it will be ok to talk about the genocide of the KURDS.
The whole issue of sanctions is perplexing me greatly.
1. Let's say that Bibi could design the optimum sanctions(with teeth, petroleum... gas)and the Russians and Chinese agreed and Obama became an uber-hawk and supported the Israeli sanction requests vis-a-vis Iran. Why would this deter Iran when they're so close? 20 % enrichment; they've clearly mastered the start of the process and may be close to "breakout capacity" to make a bomb.
You could make an argument that such sanctions might have made an impact in 2003 or even 2005 but it's too late now. The genie is out of the bottle.
2. The US government will never agree to overflight rights over iraq in advance. If Bush didn't given this authority; why would Obama? He won't.
3. The Saudis will not openly give such rights in a public venue, but will probably tacitly agree to overflight rights and watch the TV with popcorn as the Israelis destroy the Iranian nuclear capacity.
Israel cannot depend on the US, or anybody else at this juncture, and, it's too late for sanctions(even those with teeth). The only options left is either a return of the Shah's son or an Israeli strike, and I don't see the Shah's son getting a warm welcome in Tehran.
The world will attack Israel(including Obmaa), but secretly, most of the civilized world will admire Israel. The upcoming Israeli attack will
a. restore the imbalance created by the rising Shia crescent over the Gulf States.
b. actually will create conditions for a possible Iranian uprising: the opposition will say: "We don't like Israel either, but what have the theocrats wrought: only shame and destruction and boycotts on Iran."
c. Saudi/Egypt will regain their nexus in the middle east against Iran. Yes, if one had to pick one's enimies: the Saudis/Egypt under their respective governments are better than the theocrats in charge in Tehran. Perhaps not by much, but better.
d. The militant Shias in Lebanon will be pissed and possibly strike out against Israel, but they could very well ending up destroyed AND lose their Iranian sponsership.
e. Gaza/Hamas ditto for these bums. And I don't see any love lost between Hamas/Hizbollah and Egypt.
At any rate, a through e are moot: Israel has to act for her own survival. Like that old poster of Churchill on the beach with the caption: "Very well, alone...."
As for the US, I think they're will be a swell of support for Israel and her actions regarding Iran. The recent Iranian elections stripped off the mask of the thugs in Tehran.
As for the Security Council, perhaps Sir Goldstone can be hired to record in the Israeli aggression against Iran. It would be good for a laugh.
And another thing(too much caffeine today), nomatter: let Erdogan eat cake. This whole business is sleazy. Denying the killing of 1.5 million Armenians is tantamount to Holocaust denial. The Turks committed real genocide. I don't care if they're needed allies or Islamist false-face friends: they murdered in cold blood over a million souls, prompting Hitler to say, "Who does now remember the Armenians?" I do and so should the world!
Biorabbi,
I agree completely. And I'll bet I had more caffeine than you did today (two pots of coffee, plus two cans of super-caffeinated 'energy drink' to stay awake in my Torah class tonight).
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