What would the aftermath of a strike on Iran's nuclear weapons facilities look like?
This is without question the most interesting piece I have read in a LONG time, and I urge you all to read it.It's a write-up of a simulation of the aftermath of an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. It was done by the Saban Center at the (Left-leaning) Brookings Institute.
The surprises start from the very beginning because it wasn't supposed to be the aftermath of an Israeli attack. It was supposed to be the lead up. The Control group decided to change the scenario at the last minute and tell the three groups (US, Israel and Iran) that Israel had just carried out an attack and destroyed (best case scenario) Iran's nuclear capability. And that's the first lesson: The US team said that they would have stopped an Israeli strike even at the last minute if they could have stopped it. If Israel is going to attack Iran, it cannot tell the US in advance. Everyone agreed that the surprise scenario was much better than Israel telling the US it was going to attack, meeting a US refusal and then attacking anyway.
The US then behaved the way it did during the first Gulf war. During the first Gulf war, the first Bush administration forced Israel to sit on the side and absorb one missile after another from Iraq. In this simulation, eight days after the initial strike, the US had just given Israel permission to retaliate against Hezbullah (which was also firing missiles), but not against Iran. The US also continued to attempt to 'engage' Iran, but Iran wasn't interested. 'Engagement' brought no positive results.
Because the US kept pushing for 'engagement,' Iran kept pushing the US to the limit to see where that limit was. Eventually, Iran crossed a red line by bombing a Saudi oil facility in Dharan and mining the Straits of Hormuz. Another lesson (that Obama will undoubtedly ignore): Don't keep acting like a wimp in front of Iran - it will only encourage them further.
The Iranian team admitted that its actions were much more aggressive because its nuclear facilities were completely destroyed. It figured it had nothing to lose. I'd like to see Iran's nuclear facilities completely destroyed and for them to feel that they still have something to lose. The only way that will happen (and this is not in the simulation) is for Israel to ignore the US red light after it destroys Iran's nuclear facilities and go after Iran's infrastructure and the regime's leadership. Let's hope it happens.
There's much more. Read the whole thing. By the way, it's a pdf link but it's only six pages. It's worth it.
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 3:22 PM
10 Comments:
Article after article does not account for the absolute very worst scenario; meaning planes and drones shot down and Israel attacked. That of course is only the beginning. We all know the potential and inevitable fall-out from a successful mission. Obviously, the positives from a successful mission even with fall-out outweigh the negatives.
Please know the reason Israel is taking this slow with great deliberation are reasons beyond mere world condemnation, believe me!
What I find astonishing and extremely revealing is in all these years leading up to Iran's ability to enrich uranium all these think tanks who yield great power did nothing to protest to the powers that be! All our friends merely spouted support and encouragement to Israel but did nothing actively.
Jewish blood means nothing for it it meant anything Israel would not be in this position today.
We live in a world who watched the steps leading up to the inevitable in Europe. Here we go again.
Indeed Israel/Jews find themselves once again between a rock and a hard place. Attack Iran and be successful or attack Iran and lose our boys or don't attack Iran and lose our precious population.
It is easy to shame Obama however what brought us to this place came long before this president. (we so detest for all the right reasons.)
If we have not learned the lessons in that we ourselves have learned nothing.
I agree with nomatter.
But where Jewish blood flows, so will Christian and all the others: this is not the Hitlerian Nazis, it is the islamic nazis, and in their book(read it) everyone goes.
I don't think that Israel will sit still for Hezbollah rocket attacks on its population. There will at least be surgical strikes on key command and control facilities and storage sites. Israel's argument is simple: "This isn't Iran retaliating, this is another country attacking us for no reason, and we won't sit still while our civilians are murdered."
Juniper, of course everyone goes. This is the ugly inevitable consequence of weakness. This is the consequence of inherent Antisemitism. This is the reality we wear.
I believe Iran will use their bomb to bully the world. IF one world leader steps out of line, Iran will teach them a lesson. Israel will be the lesson.
First comes the time worn sacrificial lamb. It always does.
While our sophistication and knowledge has moved us pre-Shoah we have learned nothing. Were Jews prepared to be marched off to death any reason to start a war? We went to that war not for Jews being marched to their death. This is a fact.
Even when the air filled with burning bodies did the allies move to bomb the rail lines to Auschwitz. We have not moved one inch from the train tracks leading to Auschwitz. Not one Jew alive today has not felt the consequence of that. Our leaders failed to do anything then and they will fail again.
Israel goes on a potential suicide mission (and yes that is what it might be) or Israel goes....
The world yawns in wait denying your words:
"But where Jewish blood flows, so will Christian and all the others: this is not the Hitlerian Nazis, it is the islamic nazis, and in their book(read it) everyone goes."
What would happen if the IDF hit Iran with EMP's BEFORE hitting sites?
Would the frying of the entire Iranian electrical grid not be a great way to seriously knock the regime on it's tuchas?
I advocate using emp's over Iran and smaller ones over syria and lebanon...
I wonder if the military can use emp technology and scale it to tactical areas?
Paul, Indeed Israel will not sit still for rocket attacks. However why are you sure there would be only rocket attacks.
You wrote:
"surgical strikes on key command and control facilities and storage sites."
How many fighter jets would that take? Now we need to figure how many out of a not so large contingency of fighter jets would already be on the Iranian mission. Reality tells us how many of that whole number might be lost. An Iran mission is not an Osirak mission. Even then I think 16 fighter jets were used, eight dropped bombs and two bombs fizzled.
One unnamed pilot stated: "I recall feeling that even if I did not come back, this mission would prevent another Holocaust and I was in debt to my grandfather."
We know the fervor to bomb Iran is felt within Israeli military. We know they know it must be done. They also know, this mission is not as simple as Osirak.
Nothing is as easy as it appears which is why hitting Iran takes more then will but very careful planning. The military is for certain taking into consideration all the inevitability's of an Iran strike. What the military seems to understand that others are discounting is they will be acting on their own with no help on two possibly three fronts. (No help on any front for that matter) If not, they would have hit Iran already.
The other fronts, Syria, Egypt and Lebanon might be weaklings but they do have means to attack from air. Again, if that happened, does Israel have enough fighter jets to command a two possibly three front attack? Or other attacks we are not even taking into consideration?
Nomatter,
While the results of an attack cannot be known in advance, the thinking of the policymakers who are deciding whether to attack at all is far more capable of being estimated.
If you go back and read the report of the simulation, you will see that they minimize both the scope and effect of the Iranian response.
Based on both the Iraqi (Osirak) and Syrian (al-Kibar) precedents, that doesn't strike me as unreasonable.
"If you go back and read the report of the simulation, you will see that they minimize both the scope and effect of the Iranian response."
Carl, they minimize it. Exactly! You don't think for one moment such a think tank of such high esteem is not aware Israel MUST do the job because no one else will. Of course that will skew their simulation.
The final two paragraphs stated:
"Consequently, it was impossible for those on our
Iran team to know how real Iranian decision-makers would act—or for Control or any of
the observers to judge the accuracy of their portrayal.
These abstractions from reality, both in the artificial interaction of the teams as well as in the
uncertainty regarding Iranian behavior, have to be added to the other inherent differences
between a simulation and reality when attempting to draw lessons from the simulation. It is
why considerable caution must be applied when suggesting how the results of a simulation
ought to shape real-world policy-making decisions."
This was a simulation. Of course Israel is engaging in their own simulations and have been doing so for a long while. Simulations are important.
I want to be a cheerleader myself. I know Israel must attack Iran. I also know the US and allies will not do it even though they are aware how ill-begotten such a narcissistic decision that is. No one will find the responsibility for the sake of humanity to do it themselves except Israel.
No people, no country should have to be placed between a rock and a hard place with an outcome no amount of simulations can prepare themselves for.
This is why I am an angry non-trusting constituent to any politician of any party that asks for my vote.
For sure, sooner then later we ourselves will be witness to this attack. At this point all we can do is pray for a good outcome because the lives of Jews are at stake either way. (again)
i don't know why everyone thinks that Israel will attack Iran first.
to attack Iran first, knowing that hizballah will use their 40k rockets as retalation it's foolish.
so, i think israel will attack hizballah, and hamas first. only when the attacking capacity of the proxies were seriously decimated then will go for Iran. Syria will abstain in the conflict, they're not fools.
another thing: don't forget, Israel has the nuke (not officaly of course) so in a worse case scenario...
This is as stupid as models which asked what Iraq would look like after U.S. troops were welcomed with flowers, a functioning, multi-ethnic and multi-religious government had been set up, and U.S. control of oil fields and military bases had been accepted. Sheer fantasy, and dangerous fantasy at that.
The model expressly states: "In reality, there is a wide range of possible outcomes of an Israeli strike against the Iranian nuclear program, from minimal damage to the possibility of complete destruction
of about a half-dozen of the key nodes of the program. Control chose to make the strike as successful
for the Israelis as possible to imagine, including making the assumption that Israel had secretly developed penetrator munitions that could successfully destroy underground Iranian facilities. We did this purposely in order to test a scenario in which Israel gets its fondest wish and does maximum damage to the Iranian targets.
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