Israel Matzav

What you see is what you get

Why is it so difficult to pry Syrian President Bashar al-Assad away from his Iranian friend Mahmoud Ahmadinejad? Maybe because Assad has read the political map and concluded that American weakness will lead to Iran filling a power vacuum in our region says Jonathan Spyer.

Clearly, the Syrians have a habit of swallowing incentives and giving nothing in return. But if the alignment with Iran is purely pragmatic, then why does it prove so difficult to offer Syria the right carrot to lure it away from Teheran?

There are two possible answers. The first and most obvious one is that Syria calculates, probably correctly, that since there will be no real price imposed on it for not changing its behavior, it can afford to maintain its current level of relations with Iran, while happily accepting any gestures from the west or Israel designed to induce it to change them.

But this explanation fails to account for the brazenness and fervor of Syria’s current stance of defiance. The statements of individuals close to the Syrian regime in recent months suggest that there is more to the current Syrian stance than simply playing all sides off against the middle.

Rather, the Syrians believe that a profound restructuring of the balance of power is under way in the Middle East – to the benefit of the Iran-led bloc. This restructuring is being made possible because of the supposed long-term weakening of the US in the region.

This enables the aggressive, Islamist regime in Teheran to fill the vacuum. It also renders feasible policy options – such as direct confrontation with Israel – which in the 1990s seemed to have vanished forever.

The characterization of the young Syrian president and his regime as ultimately cool-headed and pragmatist is incorrect. The Damascus regime always held to a fiercely anti-Israeli and anti-American view of the region.

In the 1990s, realities appeared to require a practical sidelining of this view. But the 1990s were over a while ago.

In other words, Assad's brazen alliance with Ahmadinejad is yet another consequence of President Obama's insistence on degrading American military capabilities.

What could go wrong?

Read the whole thing.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 4:50 PM