Israel Matzav

Lebanon to be sacrificed for the greater cause of... Arab unity?

If I were Lebanese, I would not be too happy about reading this article in the New York Times two days after Sa'ad Hariri (pictured) formed a government that included Hezbullah.

The Saudis have decided that the key to re-establishing a strong hand in the region rests broadly in Arab unity and specifically in Syria. Syria has close economic and political ties with Iran. It hosts the political leadership of the militant group Hamas. It shares a border with Iraq and has been accused of allowing militants and weapons to cross over. It has a close alliance with Hezbollah. All of these are excellent tools for undermining Saudi efforts to blunt Iran and push for peace with Israel.

“The relations between the Arab countries, if they are solid, if the understanding is there, if the cohesiveness of their policy exists, then there is no worry,” said Prince Saud al-Faisal, Saudi Arabia’s longtime foreign minister. “It is only when there is division, and looking for other alternatives between the Arab countries, that creates problems.”

But Saudi Arabia’s challenge is also one of leverage, political analysts and Saudi officials said. How does Saudi Arabia persuade Syria to switch from the antipeace camp, to the pro-peace camp?

The Saudis have hinted at two strategies. One involves giving Syria much needed economic assistance. The other, though not stated directly, involves Lebanon. Syria has made it clear that it views events in Lebanon as central to its national security, as well as its pride. Saudi Arabia has tried in recent years to keep Lebanon in its orbit through proxies and cash infusions. But lately it has suggested that it might not object to Syria reasserting political control there.

What the Saudis are apparently proposing is to sacrifice Lebanon to get Syria out of Iran's orbit and to get it signed up for the Saudi 'peace plan.'

What will Hezbullah say? What could go wrong?

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 1:29 PM