Is Obama backing off Israel?
This report from DEBKA claims that the Obama administration is seeking to back off from its pressure on Israel, because it has concluded that the 'peace' process with the 'Palestinians' is going nowhere. Our sources report that Obama began reassessing his Middle East initiatives last month. To complete this turnabout, he is awaiting a response from prime minister Netanyahu, who is drawing much criticism in Washington for being slow to respond. The Israeli government has allowed the public and local media columnists to believe that a crisis in US-Israel relations is ongoing and that the Obama's US administration would be the first to try and impose a peace settlement on Israel.For once, this actually sounds sensible. But is it true? The Times of London's Uzi Mahnaimi reports in Sunday's edition that the Obama administration is hoping to cut a deal under which Israel would 'freeze' 'settlement activity' for 3-6 months.
His envoys have tried to dispel this impression by informing Israeli leaders that the US president was not about to launch any new Middle East peace initiatives. Obama has furthermore watered down his demand for a total freeze on settlement construction and is willing to countenance expansion for accommodating natural growth. However, here too, the Israeli government is accused of holding back the figures and refusing to specify whether it covers 400 or 4,000 building starts.
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DEBKAfile's Washington sources add that Mitchell is visiting Damascus for the second time in a month to explore the resumption of Syrian-Israel talks. The White House now appreciates that the peace process with the Palestinians is going nowhere any time soon. A high-ranking US official told our sources that this track will remain in deadlock for as long as Arab rulers like Saudi King Abdullah reject any gestures towards Israel in return for concessions and the Fatah-Hamas feud continues to keep the West Bank Gaza Strip apart under separate administrations.
President Obama has accordingly decided "to avoid a situation where he gets nothing from Arab leaders and is at odds with the Jews." This will more easily permit common ground to be broached on the Iranian nuclear issue.
Mitchell was reported to be working on a deal to freeze settlements for three to six months. “Israel never expected to have such pressure put on it publicly,” said Stephen Cohen of the Institute for Middle East Peace and Development.And Haaretz is reporting that Secretary of State Clinton told the Europeans last week that Israel will agree to a temporary 'settlement freeze.'
The problem for Obama is that any sign of Israeli weakness could prove costly for Netanyahu, whose aides described the US hard line as “childish”, “stupid” and “delusional”.
Obama recently described negotiations with Israel as “a kabuki dance going on constantly”. Like many US presidents before him, he may be about to discover that working on Middle East peace plans often means one step forward, followed by two steps back.
Israel will agree to temporarily freeze construction in settlements in the framework of new understandings that Jerusalem will reach with Washington, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told European foreign ministers last week.So where does this all shake out? Here's my guess which I will admit is pure conjecture based on reading the reports and knowing how things work here.
Commenting on Clinton's statements, Israeli and American sources confirmed that the parties were close to reaching an agreement. But they said the deal was not expected to be mentioned publicly in the visit by U.S. President Barack Obama's envoy to the Middle East, George Mitchell.
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Commenting on Clinton's statement, a senior Israeli official said Clinton had told European foreign ministers that she is "optimistic" about the prospect of reaching an understanding on a construction moratorium in the West Bank.
Clinton reportedly told the Europeans that if the understanding is reached, it would be the first time an Israeli government agrees to halt construction in settlements. She also said, according to sources familiar with the situation, that she expected the European Union to show support and appreciation for the move by Israel.
Senior Israeli officials said Defense Minister Ehud Barak had supplied the Americans with a detailed list of all projects in the West Bank currently under construction and which Israel believes cannot be halted. The list contains 2,500 housing units, the number of units in each project, and the projects' location and construction stage.
The Americans are willing to allow most of the projects currently under construction to continue. A source close to Barak said that "if a moratorium is decided on, it will be in the framework of a more inclusive and wider deal."
Israel is on the verge of agreeing to a 3-6 month 'freeze' subject to the caveats that the 2,500 housing units discussed above will not be stopped and that it will not apply to Jerusalem. Obama cannot be seen as backing down completely and neither can Netanyahu.
However, the Israelis and Americans will privately agree that if within that 3-6 month period there is no reciprocation from the Arab states and the 'Palestinians,' the Obama administration will quietly back off pushing Israel to make peace with the 'Palestinians.'
What is still being negotiated is the definition of reciprocation and from whom it has to come.
Neither party (the US nor Israel) believes that any real reciprocation is likely to be forthcoming. The 'Palestinians' are more interested in their 'unity talks' than they are in negotiations with Israel, and in any event anything less than a full freeze, unlimited in time, will not satisfy them. The Arab states (especially 'our friends the Saudis') don't believe that freezing 'settlement building' is a concession by Israel at all, and therefore they do not believe that they have to respond to it.
As to the Europeans, they were probably asked to tone down their anti-Israel rhetoric once the 'freeze' goes into effect, but I doubt anyone will notice any difference in their behavior.
At the end of the day, DEBKA has gotten it right - it's just going to take a little while to get there.
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 4:30 PM
5 Comments:
The Obama administration is learning -- slowly -- about Arab intransigence. Unfortunately, Obama's allegiance lies with the Arabs and given his nature of appeasing America's enemies and abandoning her allies, he will continue to lean on Israel to capitulate.
At his meeting with Jewish leaders a couple of weeks ago, Obama suggested he might comply with their request to visit Israel and speak directly to her citizens in an effort to assure them of his "steadfast" commitment to Israel's security. Instead, he is sending his goon squad this week to bully and coerce Israel into freezing settlements and refrain from attacking Iran.
Israel should give them the same reception they gave to Ashkenazi when he traveled to Washington in March.
Israel should reject a "temporary" freeze. It gains Israel nothing and the Arabs will simply escalate their demands on Israel. Even a six month freeze does a disservice to the principle peace talks shouldn't be a reward for Palestinian rejectionism.
NO WE CAN'T!
Uzi Mahnaimi?
You've got to be kidding. Arafat was more honest than Uzi Mahnaimi. Remember the "ethnic bomb" blood libel that supposedly would kill only non-Jews that Israel was said to have developed? That was one of his fabrications.
a temporary freeze would set a very bad precedent of doing something for nothing. it wouldn't be the first time Israel unilaterally tripped itself. how did leaving Gaza work out? Europe's vitriol is ongoing regardless of any self spiting.
Lumiere,
Suggest you follow the link under Uzi Mahnaimi. I have written many times on this blog about how he has mischaracterized stories.
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