Israel Matzav

Is Obama's call to open the Gaza crossings meaningful?

While he was announcing the appointment of retread George Mitchell as his envoy to the Middle East, President Barack Hussein Obama called for Israel to open the Gaza border crossings with Hamastan (Hat Tip: NY Nana via Little Green Footballs).

President Barack Obama urged Israel on Thursday to open its borders with Gaza.

The plea came in a speech that signalled the new US administration’s shift from Bush-era policy on the Middle East and the world as a whole. In a high-profile address on his second day in office, just hours after he signed an executive order to close the centre at Guantánamo Bay, Mr Obama proclaimed that the US would “actively and aggressively seek a lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians” in the wake of this month’s Gaza war.

“The outline for a durable ceasefire is clear: Hamas must end its rocket fire: Israel will complete the withdrawal of its forces from Gaza: the US and our partners will support a credible anti-smuggling and interdiction regime, so that Hamas cannot re-arm,” the US president said.

“As part of a lasting ceasefire, Gaza’s border crossings should be open to allow the flow of aid and commerce, with an appropriate monitoring regime, with the international and Palestinian Authority participating.”

The Israeli government has not commented on the demand that the border crossings be opened. It has welcomed the Hopenchange administration's plan to seek a solution with the 'Palestinians.'

Meanwhile, Hamas is complaining that there's no hope and no change in Washington.

Beirut-based Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan dismissed the new president's comments, saying "Obama is still on the same path as previous leaders and also will make the same mistakes as Bush that ignited the region instead of bringing stability."

"Obama is insisting on not bringing any change even though his campaign slogan promised to bring change," Hamdan told Al-Jazeera television in an interview. "I don't think this is a very successful step toward dealing with the region, and this will mean the next 4 years will be a failure for the region."

The spokesman said Obama should have talked about the need for Israel not to attack Gaza rather than for Hamas to stop its rocket fire.

Looking at Obama's remarks, and assuming they were reported accurately, I have to agree with Hamas. There really is no change here. Let's look again at what Obama said.

“The outline for a durable ceasefire is clear: Hamas must end its rocket fire: Israel will complete the withdrawal of its forces from Gaza: the US and our partners will support a credible anti-smuggling and interdiction regime, so that Hamas cannot re-arm,” the US president said.

“As part of a lasting ceasefire, Gaza’s border crossings should be open to allow the flow of aid and commerce, with an appropriate monitoring regime, with the international and Palestinian Authority participating.”

The only problem with this sequence is that Israel has completed the withdrawal of its forces from Gaza while Hamas has given no indication of ending its rocket fire. But let's look at all the things that have to happen - and are unlikely to happen - in Obama's paradigm before the crossings open:

1. The US and our partners will support a credible anti-smuggling and interdiction regime, so that Hamas cannot re-arm. That hasn't happened.The Egyptians aren't capable of a 'credible' anti-smuggling and interdiction regime and the Europeans aren't interested in one. The Egyptians won't allow foreign troops to monitor the Rafah crossing, so that option isn't there either. Unless that all changes, this isn't going to happen.
2. Obama calls to open Gaza's borders, but only as part of a "lasting cease fire." Heck - George Bush called for that too. But for that to happen, it means that Hamas would have to make a real long-term commitment to stop the shooting. The most I've heard Hamas even talk about is a year. And even that is unlikely to happen. To this point, at least, Obama hasn't called for the borders to be open unless the shooting stops.
3. Obama calls for the borders to be open "with an appropriate monitoring regime, with the international and Palestinian Authority participating.” Hamas is never going to agree to the 'Palestinian Authority' participating. They would starve their own people first. And while it's conceivable that everyone other than Hamas will agree to international participation, remember what happened the last time we had international monitors in the Philadelphi corridor.

The real concerns aren't with what Obama said last night: They're with what he might do after February 10. The real concerns are that:

1. Obama will gradually move off his current position to force Israel to 'try' opening the border, or to open the border as part of a deal in which Hamas will agree to stop shooting - that Hamas will never keep.
2. Israel will elect a weak government that will ask Obama to impose a 'settlement.'
3. George Mitchell will convince the Obama administration that Israel is Northern Ireland and weak Israeli leaders will agree to our country being dismembered.

But none of this will happen before Israel's elections on February 10. If Obama had unequivocably called for Israel to open the Gaza border crossings (as the Euroweenies have), the next poll would show the Likud with 40 seats and Yisrael Beiteinu with 20. The real question is what will happen after February 10. We Israelis have to make sure that we have a government that is strong enough to say no to Obama on the morning of February 11 - no Tzipi, no Ehud and Bibi hemmed in from the right.

Stay focused guys!

More on this story here.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:21 AM