Israel Matzav

Going it alone?

The JPost is reporting on Thursday that the IDF is preparing to attack Iran on its own, with or without American support.

"It is always better to coordinate," one top Defense Ministry official explained last week. "But we are also preparing options that do not include coordination."

Israeli officials have said it would be difficult, but not impossible, to launch a strike against Iran without receiving codes from the US Air Force, which controls Iraqi airspace. Israel also asked for the codes in 1991 during the First Gulf War, but the US refused.

"There are a wide range of risks one takes when embarking on such an operation," a top Israeli official said.

Several news reports have claimed recently that US President George W. Bush has refused to give Israel a green light for an attack on Iranian facilities. One such report, published in September in Britain's Guardian newspaper, claimed that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert requested a green light to attack Iran in May but was refused by Bush.

I would be deeply concerned if Israel did not have a plan to attack Iran on its own. But that doesn't mean that an attack is going to happen anytime soon.

If Israel is going to go it alone, there's no reason that the attack has to take place while Bush is in office. Obama can be at least as unsupportive. And there's at least some hope that with oil at less than half the price it was last summer, Iran will be forced to slow down its nuclear program.

Israeli officials said last week that the drop in oil prices and the continued sanctions on Iran were having an effect, although they had yet to stop Teheran's nuclear program. The officials said that while Iran was making technological advancements, it would not have the necessary amount of highly-enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb until late 2009.

"There is still time and there is no need to rush into an operation right now," another Israeli official said. "The regime there is already falling apart and will likely no longer be in power 10 years from now."

I believe that the sanctions are having very little effect - too many countries and companies violate them. But the fall in the price of oil is having an effect: While the euroweenies aren't willing to give up doing business with Iran when it is profitable for them, they are not going to give Iran charity handouts either.

In any event, Iran doesn't appear to be quaking in its boots:

On Monday, Teheran dismissed the possibility of an Israeli strike, saying it didn't take Israel seriously.

"We think that regional and international developments and the complicated situation faced by Israel itself will not allow it to launch military strikes against other countries," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hassan Qashqavi told reporters in Teheran, according to the Press TV Web site. "Israel makes threats to promote its psychological and media warfare," he said.

Maybe. But Iran can never know for sure. And that's why threats like going it alone can be productive.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 11:02 AM