Israel Matzav

Hopenchange Appeasement

A report being presented by an American 'think tank' to the incoming Obama administration is urging immediate dialogue with Iran, American reconciliation to Iran being a nuclear power, and to top it off, dialogue with Hamas.

The chapter devoted to Iran calls on the new administration to open multilateral dialogue between the US and Iran on all outstanding issues. Diplomacy, the report says, should begin immediately at a low level, even before the Iranian elections in June 2009, so that the US can better understand the Iranian hierarchy and political dynamic. [Kumbaya my Lord, Kumbaya.... CiJ]

The chapter also calls on the US to view Iran as one united nation, ruled by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - a recommendation that goes against the strategy of trying to leverage inter-Iranian discord in order to effect regime change from within, without direct external intervention.

The report says Iran is two to three years away from being capable of militarizing its nuclear program, and this time is seen as sufficient for the US to adopt an updated diplomatic approach to prevent such a move from Teheran.

Intelligence assessments in Israel conflict with the American estimate, saying Iran might get the bomb as early as sometime in 2009.

The most problematic recommendation in the chapter devoted to Iran from an Israeli point of view, however, is an assessment that resorting to a military option is likely not to produce results worthy of the effort invested and that one of the many scenarios the US should prepare itself for is the reality of a nuclearized Islamic Republic.

Iran might use nuclear weapons as a strategic point of leverage for threatening its neighbors without actually firing them.

This is a real coherent strategy, isn't it? After trying to 'talk' to Iran for six years (with some toothless sanctions thrown in for good measure), the 'foreign policy establishment' is now suggesting three more years of 'talking' while Iran continues on the road to nuclear weapons. And if they're wrong and it only takes one year instead of three, it doesn't really matter because they're reconciled to Iran being a nuclear power anyway. Brilliant, just brilliant. /sarc. These guys make Neville Chamberlain look like a brilliant political geostrategist.

And then they come to Hamas.

On the Palestinians, the writers, Shibley Telhami and Steven Cook, suggest that the US encourage Palestinian unity, because any diplomatic initiative will produce no results unless there is one political address on the Palestinian side.

The report suggests that the US work with its allies in the Middle East so that Hamas will be incorporated into the Palestinian Authority in the framework of a unity government.

That worked out just great as a 'strategy' in the early part of this decade. We had a war with the 'Palestinians' (which the official 'Palestinian Authority' did nothing to contain) until Hamas went and ruined it by winning elections.

And then there's this for good measure.

Furthermore, the report suggests the US should force Israel to freeze building of new settlements, including stopping further construction in existing settlement blocs.

And you wonder why no one expects Netanyahu to get along with Obama? But wait - this report is also backed by the Bush administration.

The report is expected to be a centerpiece of the Saban Forum discussions, held in Washington this weekend.

Outgoing US President George W. Bush will speak at the forum's opening evening and the forum will include former secretary of state Henry Kissinger, former British PM and current Quartet envoy in the region Tony Blair, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Deputy Prime Minister Haim Ramon.

By the way, "Saban" is Haim Saban, and guess what: He's an Israeli! When will they ever learn....

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 7:44 AM