Red line?
The installation of anti-aircraft batteries by Hezbullah in southern Lebanon may be a 'red line' that requires a 'violent Israeli response' according to senior Israeli government and army officials. There have been conflicting reports in the Arabic media as to whether Hezbollah has already smuggled in such missiles, or is merely seeking to do so. Senior General Staff officers opined recently that while Hezbollah clearly wants such missiles eventually, they doubt it is interested in heating up its conflict with Israel just now.I disagree. Hezbullah has given every indication that they are very interested in heating up the conflict right now. With the cabinet approval of Hezbullah's prerogative to bear arms and legislative approval all-but-certain, Hezbullah is riding high right now. And with the Israeli government in a state of confusion, being 'led' by eventually resigning Prime Minister Ehud K. Olmert, Hezbullah may believe that now is the time to attack, while the iron is hot in Lebanon and before Israel has a stable government in power.
The Israeli overflights that Hezbullah is threatening are critical for Israeli intelligence:
While it halted them when it first left Lebanon, it resumed them five months later, after Hezbollah kidnapped three Israeli soldiers, and never stopped them again. It was these flights, for instance, that enabled Israel to learn the positions of the long-range missiles that it destroyed on the first day of the Second Lebanon War in 2006. They presumably also provide clues to developments in Syria.For Hezbullah, installing anti-aircraft missiles would place the next war with Israel on a different plane.
For Hezbollah, the flights were a threat, but also an opportunity: They provided a pretext for continuing its "resistance to the Israeli occupation." It continued its anti-aircraft fire until summer 2003, when one such barrage killed a child in Shlomi, and Israel's fierce retaliatory bombardment caused the organization to desist.
Now, however, it seems keen to reopen this front, even at the cost of provoking a harsh Israeli response.
The aerial front was Hezbollah's principal weak spot during the Second Lebanon War. Israel's air force did as it pleased in Lebanon's skies, from destroying the Fajr missiles to dropping special forces in Hezbollah's stronghold of Bekaa. Now, according to both Military Intelligence assessments and recent reports in the Arabic media, Hezbollah is seeking to close this gap.I would bet that Hezbullah tries to install those anti-aircraft batteries before the winter rains. And I would bet that Israel responds - how harshly will depend on where we are politically when it happens. Whether it will develop into another full-scale war remains to be seen. But Hezbullah is willing to take that chance.
Should Hezbollah install advanced anti-aircraft batteries, accompanied by modern radar, this would cause significant problems for Israeli overflights. And that in turn would score domestic points for the organization, justifying its refusal to disarm. Smuggling in such batteries should not be difficult, given the massive quantities of rockets and antitank missiles it has already succeeded in bringing in from Syria.
Which missiles in particular Israel is worried about has not been publicized. But in 2005, when Russia was reportedly about to sell SA-18 missiles to Syria, Israel protested vehemently, on the grounds that such missiles can easily be removed from their carriers, making them highly suitable for use by terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah.
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 11:35 AM
3 Comments:
Hezbollah is calculating that Israel's dhmmi surrender earlier this summer and the humiliation it swallowed remarkably well has weakened the ability of the Jewish State to defend itself. Then too, the fecklessness of top Israeli government officials in turning a blind eye to the situation up north has also emboldened Hezbollah. Finally, Hezbollah sees Lebanon as Israel's "Vietnam" that Israel is going to inhibited by both domestic and world factors from trying to eliminate the Hezbollah threat. For all those reasons, the devastation Israel inflicted on Lebanon during the last war is one lesson Hezbollah is willing to forget now that it effectively runs the Lebanese state.
Yes, Norman. And another thing in Debka, which is probably true, in which we are even facing a struggle with "friends":
US general’s surprise Lebanon visit ties Israel’s hands against Hizballah (http://debka.com/headline.php?hid=5489)
It's getting nastier by the minute. Something's gotta give.
If lebanon/hezbollah/syria/iran actually thought the build up of weapons in lebanon/syria/gaza we defensive I'd have no problem with them arming themselves to the teeth...
however the likelihood that 30-40 THOUSAND rockets, are defensive are absurd.
the stated purpose of these arms IS to liberate additional lands..
as we have seen these "demands" are movable goalposts...
the issue aint land, it's israel's BEING...
one day soon, the dam will burst....
now the fact that Israel invests in bomb shelters and the otherside invests in rockets i'd say the otherside is in store for another "victory" with 10's of billions in damage & 10's of thousands dead..
israel will "LOSE" of course...
Hopefully the death toll will be less than a 12 people.... and with a little help the rockets sent blindly by the Lebanese/Hez/Syrian/Iranian/Palios groups will fall on their BROTHERS inside of Israel.
Would it not be ironic that if ONE of these rockets hit their precious "golden dome"?
The likelihood that the rapid and largess of the build up of the retards weapons will go UNUSED is slim no matter who holds the reins in Jerusalem.
Miscalculation of "weak" democrat leaders by the arabs is not new....
maybe they actually think Israel is already defeated and a dhimmi in waiting...
if so they will be overly aggressive and will over play their hand, as they ALWAYS DO....
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