Israel Matzav

Outfoxed?

Prime Minister Ehud K. Olmert thought that by agreeing to let his Kadima Achora party hold primaries, in a worst case scenario he would at least survive in office long enough to get a new lease on his political life from his lawyers' cross-examination of financier Morris (Moshe) Talansky. He thought that by allowing Kadima to hold primaries, he would forestall Labor and Shas bringing down his government by voting with the opposition for new elections. He was wrong. Maybe.

Labor chairman Ehud Barak is set to announce on Thursday morning that he still favors dissolving the Knesset and initiating an early general election, despite Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's announcement a day earlier initiating a primary in Kadima, sources close to Barak said Wednesday night.

The Jerusalem Post reported exclusively Wednesday that Olmert intended to authorize a primary to replace him, a step toward ending his political career. Olmert confirmed the report at a meeting in his office at the Knesset with Kadima MKs Tzahi Hanegbi and Eli Aflalo.

"The process has been put in motion," Hanegbi said following the meeting. "The prime minister instructed us to act quickly to set the rules for primaries in Kadima. The path to primaries is paved."

Olmert's associates said that one of the goals of his decision was to try to prevent the passage of Likud MK Silvan Shalom's bill that would disperse the Knesset and set a November 11 election date. But that goal appeared to have backfired, as both Labor and Shas officials said they would still vote for Shalom's bill unless a date was set for the primary.

I'm not sure this is such a big deal. Suppose Olmert sets a date for the Kadima primary in September as has been talked about in the media. Olmert is still leading (which ought to tell you something about how much corruption Israelis are willing to tolerate) in every poll of Kadima members. By September, the Talansky cross-examination will have taken place and the Knesset will be in recess until late October, after the holidays. That's enough to keep this corrupt government in power until at least next January. They can give the whole country away by then!

Hanegbi said there was no chance of a date being set by the time the bill was expected to be brought to a preliminary vote, on June 28 [should be June 18. CiJ]. He said that due to the challenges of changing Kadima's charter, it was also unlikely a primary date would be set before the cross-examination of American Jewish financier Morris Talansky, the main witness in the investigation that is undermining support for Olmert, on July 17.

The Kadima faction will begin discussing the date of the primary next week. Sources close to the Kadima candidates said the most likely date for the race was September 2.

Sources close to Olmert said he had still kept hope alive that following Talansky's testimony, Israeli citizens and politicians would have a change of heart about him that would enable him to remain prime minister and perhaps even run in the Kadima primary. An official who participated in Wednesday's meeting said that Olmert appeared to resent the need to deal with the primary.

I'm not sure why they have to amend their charter to hold primaries, but given that the party was set up to be a dictatorship (by Ariel Sharon), it's likely true. And of course, Olmert will want to drag that process out as long as possible, just like he has dragged out all his legal proceedings. It was Olmert's attorneys who decided not to cross-examine Talansky at the end of May. As to Olmert's hope that Israelis will one day love him again, hopefully, most of us are not that stupid. In any event, Barak and Labor apparently have seen through it and understand what Olmert is up to.

Labor secretary-general Eitan Cabel said that not setting a date for the primary and allowing Olmert to seek reelection canceled out any benefit to Olmert's announcement.

Barak's associates said the decision by Labor ministers last week to back dispersing the Knesset had not changed.

"[Olmert's announcement] is a step in the right direction but we are not satisfied," a source close to Barak said. "Barak is not looking for an excuse to vote against dispersing the Knesset. Kadima leaders must demand that Olmert go further."

In other words, this is all about guaranteeing that Olmert will not be a candidate for Prime Minister. It is clear to Barak that Barak will not be ready to win an election in November. If Livni leads Kadima, Kadima will win and Barak and Labor will be in the government again. And if Olmert leads Kadima, Kadima loses, Likud wins, and Barak and Labor will be in the opposition. That's the calculation behind this. No, it's not the good of the country. It's political. Then there's Shas.

Shas officials said Olmert's announcement did not change anything for them, adding that the party would still vote for dispersing the Knesset unless Olmert raised child welfare payments.

This just isn't going to happen. At least the child allowances are not going to go back to what they were before Netanyahu became finance minister under Sharon in 2002. This is an excuse for Shas to do what they should have done months ago without appearing to be caving in to pressure from right wing parties who are alarmed by Olmert's fire sale of the country's assets.

The vote may be postponed from June 18 to June 25 because both Barak and Shas leader Eli Yishai will be out of the country on the 18th. But it's beginning to look like Olmert's days in office are numbered. Hopefully those numbers are low.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 6:50 AM