Israel Matzav

Who's afraid of a Gaza invasion?

Israel's insecurity cabinet decided today to ignore the IDF's advice, call off the Gaza invasion and allow Hamas to regroup and rearm. Without getting back Gilad Shalit (lest you think his return is the reason for calling it off).

Following the security cabinet's long-awaited decision Wednesday to "exhaust the dialogue with Egypt," an Israeli defense delegation will head to Cairo on Thursday to finalize details of a truce with Hamas in the Gaza Strip that will likely go into effect by the end of the week.

Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amos Gilad, head of the Defense Ministry's Diplomatic-Security Bureau, will travel to Cairo in the morning with several aides for talks with Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman. He is expected to convey Israel's official decision to accept Egypt's offer of a cease-fire with Hamas in Gaza.

Of course, the government is pretending that they are actually going to get something in return for stopping the IDF hits in Gaza. Don't bet on it.

A diplomatic official, however, said the cease-fire must contain the following elements: a complete cessation of rocket and terrorist attacks from Gaza, an end to Hamas's arms smuggling and military buildup, and an understanding that the truce must be accepted by all the terrorist organizations in the Strip. In addition, the truce will depend on some "movement" being seen toward the release of kidnapped Cpl. Gilad Schalit.

"The Egyptian track is still a work in progress," the official said.

Except for the rockets stopping for a little while, none of the rest of those things will happen.

And why was this solution adopted? Politics. You see, Defense Minister Ehud Barak (pictured) wants to be Prime Minister again some day, and he's afraid that if the IDF invades Gaza and the operation fails, he, Barak, will be blamed.

One government source said that while maintaining good ties with Egypt was one of the factors involved, it was overshadowed by both Barak's tactical and political considerations.

On a tactical level, Barak, according to the source, did not believe Hamas could be uprooted in one military incursion, and efforts to do so would entail heavy IDF casualties.

On a political level, the defense minister was concerned that any failure would be laid at his doorstep - something he did not need with the country entering an election season - while any success would be taken by Olmert, the source said.

The government source said Barak's position on the cease-fire proposal represented a significant change in his position from just a few days ago, when he was warning of an imminent military action.

Even though a number of ministers inside the security cabinet had come out vociferously in favor of significant military measures, the source said, it would be impossible for the government to give a green light for an operation that was not backed by the defense minister and the IDF.

As you might imagine, the people who are suffering under the rocket fire were not pleased.

Gaza-region residents are infuriated over Wednesday’s cabinet meeting, which ended on an indecisive note with ministers agreeing to give lull efforts a chance while preparing for a military operation in Gaza.

The residents, who have been dealing with ongoing rocket and mortar attacks, are already planning their next protest moves and charge the government with ignoring them in favor of political interests.

But JPost reports that the government did make a decision: the wrong decision.

Eshkol Regional Council head Haim Yelin said the cabinet had indeed made a decision. Until now, isolated ministers had made strong-sounding statements that were never backed up by any coherent government policy, he said.

"Until now, there were no decisions. I am happy the government took a decision," Yelin said. He added, however, that he was concerned that the truce would only allow Hamas to rearm and would not restore peace to the region in the end.

Kadima MK Shai Hermesh, who lives in Kfar Aza - the Gaza-border kibbutz that lost one of its members, Jimmy Kedoshim, to a mortar shell last month - said it was "a bad decision." Hermesh said the decision "doesn't take into account that the people here are under threat day and night."

There were only two paths forward, he said. Either there would be a truce and then a war, or there would be a war and then a truce. He made clear that he preferred the latter option.

If a truce came first, Hermesh said, then in six months Ashdod, Kiryat Gat and Beersheba would be in danger of attack because of the Hamas military buildup. He added that the threat was growing every minute Israel refrained from going to war with Hamas.

It's a shame the government has no - you know whats - because the group that is most afraid of an Israeli invasion of Gaza is Hamas.

A senior Israel Defense Forces military intelligence officer told Tuesday's cabinet session that Hamas both fears a broad IDF operation in the Gaza Strip, and is expediting its preparations for such an incursion.

Brigadier General Yossi Baidatz, the head of the research division of Military Intelligence, added that the militant Palestinian group was currently most interested in achieving calm in the Gaza Strip, which it controls, but was simultaneously continuing to smuggle weapons from Egypt.

Baidatz was speaking at a session attended by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and top military brass, which focused on the issue of whether to pursue a truce with Gaza's Hamas rulers, or embark on a broad military operation against militants in the Strip.

Oh well, politics is politics. What's a few more lives of the Negev Jews as compared with Ehud Barak's political career?

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 1:30 AM