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Wednesday, April 07, 2010

CIA spy in Revolutionary Guard: Iran will use nukes

Earlier Wednesday, I posted an interview with a man who goes by the pseudonym Reza Kahlili. Kahlili was a CIA spy in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in the 1980's and 1990's. Kahlili's book about his experiences (pictured) came out on Wednesday.

Here are parts of a more extensive interview with Kahlili conducted by fellow blogger Michael J. Totten.
MJT: What is this government's ultimate goal?

Reza Kahlili: Every opinion put out by the Western analysts over the years has been wrong. Just last year Newsweek came out and said everything we know about Iran is wrong, but they found out a month later that they were wrong about everything they said. The same with the New York Times reporter, I forget his name.

The idea that this government is a dictatorship that wants to sustain power and therefore won't do anything like use a nuclear bomb is incorrect, I think. They have shown through their behavior over the past three decades that they have one goal, and that's to confront the West.

If you look more deeply into the thought processes of the people controlling the government, these are people who strongly believe Islam will conquer the world. Every act they commit is in that direction. They don't just want a nuclear bomb to make them untouchable. They think it will be the trigger for Islam conquering the world.

If all they wanted was to protect their government, as many are saying, they have the best opportunity right now. They can negotiate with the West, join the global economy, be respected and all that, but they refuse to do so.

MJT: So do you think if they acquire nuclear weapons they will actually use them?

Reza Kahlili: They will.

MJT: Against Israel?

Reza Kahlili: You have to look at the parallel projects that they're working on, the missile delivery system and the nuclear project. Currently they cover part of Europe. Their goal is to cover all of Europe. They're not going to announce they have a bomb unless they have overcome the glitches of putting together a nuclear bomb and a nuclear warhead. But once they do that, they will make enough bombs so that all of Europe is under their coverage.

Reza Kahlili: Then they will begin their most aggressive behavior in trying to control the Middle East, moving toward the goal of destroying Israel, bringing the imperialistic system of economics to a halt, creating chaos, and waiting for the Mahdi to appear. It's all right out in the open. Just look at their Mahdi philosophy.


MJT: A far more likely scenario, though, is the Israelis bomb the nuclear facilities. I can't see the Obama Administration taking any kind of action, but the Israelis might. What do you foresee happening if they do? I realize no one can really predict the future, but how might something like that affect Iranian public opinion and internal politics?

Reza Kahlili: Israel is a special subject. People in Iran do not sympathize with Israel the way they sympathize with the U.S. They're looking for help, right? But they're not looking for the same kind of help from Israel.

So if Israel bombs the facilities in Iran, don't expect people to come out into the streets to celebrate or confront the government forces. That's not going to happen. They're just going to sit at home and pray this thing doesn't get out of hand.

Reza Kahlili: Israel will take a big penalty for doing such, but the Obama Administration might drag its feet so long that the Israelis think they have no other choice. There will be a major war if they do it, most likely. I mean, nobody knows, as you said. But it's likely, and Israel could pay a very heavy price.

If the Israelis do this, the West had better support them and make sure it means the end of the Iranian government. Just a hit and run won't solve anything.

MJT: What if the Israelis destroyed the Revolutionary Guards? How might the Iranian people react to that?

Reza Kahlili: That would be very different from just destroying the nuclear facilities. I would say that if any power takes on the Revolutionary Guards, they will find sympathy from the Iranian people. Even Israel.

MJT: Iranians don't hate Israel the way Arabs do.

Reza Kahlili: No. It's very different. We have family members who are Jewish. This wasn't a problem during the Shah's time. Iranian people do not hate Israel like they do in Arab countries. We aren't Arabs. Persians are very different from Arabs. I'm sure you know that.

MJT: Oh, yes.
Read the whole thing. (There's much more). I hope Bibi and IDF intelligence will read it too. Especially that part about destroying the Revolutionary Guards.

And if anyone wants to send me a review copy of the book....


At 11:31 PM, Blogger NormanF said...

Israel should destroy the power centers in Iran as well as nuclear installations. If you're going go for it, do not hold back. And Israel might have to use tactical nuclear weapons to be sure the Iranians can never rebuild their installations. Israel will pay a heavy price but there is really no alternative. Iran must under no circumstances be allowed to acquire The Bomb.

At 11:51 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

Hi Carl.
I agree the threat coming from a nuclear Iran will not be limited to Israel but to every country it could reach once they have the nuclear warheads.
And of course he will wait to tell till he mastered the lauching of it.
Taking out his nuclear capacities is not enough ,you must cut of all the heads of an Hydra.

At 1:15 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

My worry is something other than missiles loaded with nukes and aimed at Europe and elsewhere. That would be a major league problem, to be sure, but not as bad as what I'm about to describe.

Electromagnetic Pulse ("EMP"). Created with the explosion of a nuke, and generally far more actively produced by cruder atomic weapons than by hydrogen (thermonuclear) ones. Explode a sufficiently powerful nuke 150-400 miles above a target area, and everything electronic within a direct line of sight of the explosion will be fried. This means every computer chip and every electric line (and with those lines, the transformers connected to them). Instant time travel to the late 19th Century. So, no power - until you rebuild the electrical net, which you CANNOT do in the US in less than 2-3 years. During that 2-3 years (assuming we can get new transformers from overseas, since we don't make any here anymore), there will be no electricity for producing and transporting liquid fuel, none for hospitals, none for refrigeration, none for processing of food or medicines. So, during that time, we won't experience the "good old days" or the "simpler times" of the late 1800's, but will instead experience starvation, freezing (for Yankees), disease and looting for food nationwide. 3/4 or more of the US population simply won't survive to see the lights go back on, if they ever do, because we are simply not prepared to feed and care for 300 million people using 19th century technology (most of which is lost to us - we don't have the tools or the know-how).

What's this got to do with Iran? Well, you only need one fairly powerful nuke exploded above Kansas, or 3 smaller ones over the East, West and Gulf coasts, and the country is finished - forever. It doesn't take a major power to do this, only one that can smuggle one or a few relatively primitive missiles aboard some nameless ship and launch it. Accuracy doesn't count, if they hit their target within a couple hundred miles the result will effectively be the same. It would be the ultimate in assymetrical warfare delivered by a nation that specializes in assymetrical warfare. It would accomplish the goal of destroying the infidel West in a matter of a few seconds. Oh, and a couple bombs for Europe and Japan would close the deal. After that, using even a few nukes aggressively will net them the Middle East nearly overnight.

The best part (from their P.O.V.) is that even if the US, England or France figures out who did it and was able to launch missiles to turn the entire nation of Iran into a radioactive parking lot covered with green glass, it wouldn't help the infidels - we'd all still be dead or dying. Religiously speaking, they'll have martyred themselves on a nationwide scale in the ultimate suicide bombing.

Ironically, in this age of $Trillion+ deficits, the expenditure of a few hundred million dollars to buy spares and to safeguard existing transformers would ameliorate the effects down to a couple of months. Devastating, but surely not fatal. The nation and most of its people would survive.


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