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Thursday, July 02, 2009

The 'then maybe they will' doctrine

Steven Plaut describes the cognitive dissonance that is necessary to entertain the notion that 'two states for two people' will lead to peace. He calls it the 'then maybe they will' doctrine.
For the past 30 years the Israeli political establishment has been prisoner to the "Then Maybe They Will" doctrine. Every major policy decision made by the government has reflected the power of wishful thinking and faith in the make-pretend. Here is a brief recapitulation of the doctrine:

If Israel gives Sinai back to the Egyptians, THEN MAYBE THEY WILL stop the Nazi-like anti-Semitic propaganda in their state-run media.

If Israel agrees to limited autonomy for Palestinians, THEN MAYBE THEY WILL stop seeking Israel's destruction and the world will not try to set up an independent Palestinian Arab terror state.

If Israel provides the Palestinian Authority with arms and funds, THEN MAYBE THEY WILL not be used for terrorist atrocities against Israel.

If Israel grants its Arab citizens affirmative action preferences, THEN MAYBE THEY WILL stop cheering terrorists and seeking the annihilation of Israel and its Jewish population.

If Israel frees thousands of jailed Palestinian terrorists, THEN MAYBE THEY WILL renounce violence and not murder any more Jews.

If Israel agrees to hold talks with representatives of the PLO, THEN MAYBE THEY WILL put a stop to Palestinian terrorism.

If Israel allows the Palestinians to hold elections, THEN MAYBE THEY WILL not elect Hamas.

If the Palestinians elect Hamas, THEN MAYBE THEY WILL not pursue a program of aggression and terrorism against Israel.

If Israel holds talks with terrorists, THEN MAYBE THEY WILL renounce their genocidal ambitions and seek peace.

If Israel conducts a unilateral withdrawal from all of southern Lebanon and allows Hezb'allah terrorists to station rockets on the border, THEN MAYBE THEY WILL not launch any of them.

If Israel sits back while the Syrians exert their hegemony over Lebanon, THEN MAYBE THEY WILL rein in Hezb'allah and stop border attacks on Israel.

If Israel refrains from retaliating against Hezb'allah terrorists after they murder captive Israeli soldiers in cold blood, THEN MAYBE THEY WILL not seek to kidnap any more soldiers.

If Israel agrees to one cease-fire after another with the Arabs, THEN MAYBE THE ARABS WILL eventually comply with one.

If Israel allows Arabs in Israel to build illegally, including on public lands, THEN MAYBE THEY WILL become pro-Israel and moderate.

If Israel agrees to the stationing of UN troops in Lebanon, THEN MAYBE THEY WILL actually do something to stop terror attacks on Israel.

If Israel ignores Hezb'allah border violations, THEN MAYBE THEY WILL come to an end.

If Israel lets the Muslims control the Temple Mount in Jerusalem, THEN MAYBE THEY WILL respond with friendship and moderation.

If Israel expels all Jews from Gaza as a gesture of friendship to the Palestinians, THEN MAYBE THEY WILL reciprocate with friendship toward the Jews.

If Israel turns the Gaza Strip over to the Palestinians, THEN MAYBE THEY WILL not use it as a base for terror attacks against Israel.

If Israel turns the other cheek after Qassam rocket attacks from Gaza, THEN MAYBE THEY WILL stop being fired.

If Israel allows the Palestinian Authority to control parts of the West Bank, THEN MAYBE THE PALESTINIANS WILL not fire rockets at Jews the same way they do from Gaza.

If Israel returns the Golan Heights to Syria THEN MAYBE THE SYRIANS WILL seek peace and reject the idea of using the Heights to attack Israel again.

If Israel agrees to place its neck in the Oslo/Road Map/Saudi Plan noose, THEN MAYBE THE ARABS WILL not pull the rope.

If Israel officially agrees in principle to let the Palestinians have a state, THEN MAYBE THEY WILL abandon their agenda of annihilating Israel.

Sounds kind of like the dayeinu song at the Passover seder, doesn't it? Read the whole thing. Of course, none of the "maybe they wills" has ever come true.

But Jihad Watch's Hugh Fitzgerald takes this even further, ridiculing the notions that there are 'two peoples' or a 'solution' (Hat Tip: Shy Guy).
Let’s start with the “two peoples.” Who are these “two peoples” of which we hear so much? The "Two Peoples" are supposed to be the Israeli Jews and the "Palestinians." But the "Palestinians" in question are merely the local Arabs, as anyone will come to realize who stays for a minute to think about the matter and to put aside, for the moment, the incessant Arab propaganda since the Six-Day War that led to the invention of the "Palestinian People" and then to the “project” of their “construction,” the “construction of that ‘Palestinian’ identity” -- see Joel Beinin, see Rashid Khalidi, see Joseph Massad. That “construction” is a weapon of war, a weapon of Islamic propaganda. It crumbles, upon inspection, into dust. For those “Palestinians,” or rather, those local Arabs who are now called “Palestinians,” are identical in every important respect, in language, in culture, in ethnic identity, and above all in the shared Total Belief-System, to other Muslim Arabs. They are proudly Muslim or, for the handful of remaining Christians, “Islamochristians” who have internalized the Muslim worldview. All of them proudly share -- see the PLO and Hamas charters -- the idea of a single Arab people, whose most important identifying mark after Islam itself (and for the “islamochristians” it can serve as a substitute for Islam) is ‘Uruba, Arabness.

The second is the naive notion of a "Solution." Americans appear to be particularly susceptible to this idea: everything can be called a "problem," and every problem has a "solution." No. This is not true, and never has been. There is no "solution" to what some might call the "problem" of human inequality, for example, but there are ways we manage to deal with this, including the legal equality -- which is not the same thing as forced equality of outcome -- that the American system attempts to protect, with varying degrees of success. There is no "solution" to political hysteria, or conspiracy theorists -- examples of human stupidity -- but one tries to keep them within manageable bounds.


There is no "solution" to the ideology of Islam. There is only a sober understanding, by those who are the intended victims of that ideology, and a making of common cause of all non-Muslims. This common cause should be based not least on an intelligent awareness of Islamic triumphalism, whereby any success against non-Muslims anywhere merely whets, and does not sate, Muslim appetites for further success. For in the mental background of history-haunted Muslims, especially Arab Muslims, are the first century or two of uninterrupted Arab conquests, a past that they keep hoping will again be their future.

There is no "solution" to the Arab Jihad against Israel, or to the Jihad, carried out in the main by non-Arab Muslims, against India, or to those being waged within Thailand, or the Philippines, or in any number of non-Muslim lands. And in Western Europe, the "struggle" or Jihad to push back, to undo, the Infidels in the lands they still, preposterously, consider their own, is not -- not right now, while the Western world still possesses much greater military might -- military in nature.
Again, read the whole thing.

The conflict between Israel and its Arab neighbors - including the 'Palestinians' - is an existential conflict. It's not about 'two states for two peoples' and it's not about the 1949 or 1967 borders. It's about Israel's existence as a Jewish state on what the Muslims consider Dar al-Islam - a region where Islam is dominant. Anyone who cannot recognize these basic truths is living in a world of 'then maybe they will.' We Israeli Jews cannot live in a world of 'then maybe they will.' If we try to do so, we will effectively be committing suicide.


At 3:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dayeinu seems to be very popular today.

At 7:42 PM, Blogger NormanF said...

The fallacy of the "maybe they will" doctrine is that its based on the assumption the other side wants the same thing the Jews do. They do not. I was watching this morning a film about the Muslim killers in Mumbai and how they were smiling and laughing before going on to murder hundreds of people. They may wear Levis, eat Baskin Robbins ice cream and use a cell phone but they'd murder us infidels - especially Jews if they were within their power in a heartbeat without thinking about it.

In other words, the other side is not us. Indulging in wishful thinking about a make-pretend peace will get every Jew in Israel and on the planet killed. Its time to wake the heck up!

At 10:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Trying to make paleostinians live in peace with Israel is like trying to make the cat live in peace with the mouse (not that I'm implying that Israel is in any way acting like a mouse).

Arab muslims accepting non-muslims living in "muslim lands" (other than as second class citizens subject to islam) can never happen. The sooner Israel understands this and acts accordingly, the quicker a solution will be found.


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