Israel Matzav

Hmmm: Egypt wants to buy the S-400 to defend against... Iran?

The Egyptian military recently gave notice that it wants to buy the Russian-made S-400 anti-missile defense system to protect itself against Iran. The S-400 is the next generation of the S-300 (pictured), which Israel is trying to convince Russia not to sell to Iran.

The S-300 is highly effective against aircraft and has a reported ability to track up to 100 targets simultaneously, while engaging up to 12 at the same time. It has a range of about 200 km. and can hit targets at altitudes of 27,000 meters.

The S-400 is a more advanced model that is effective not just against aircraft, but also against long-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. Its range is reportedly 400 km.

But Aaron Lerner points out that although the Egyptians claim they want to buy the S-400 to stave off Iran, they may have something else in mind.

The traditional Israeli narrative is that Egypt made peace with Israel when it realized that it was not able to destroy the Jewish state in the Yom Kippur War.

But, then again, when Egypt decided on the "reward" it would receive from the United States in return for generously agreeing to sign a peace treaty with Israel in return for every centimeter of the Sinai, in the choice between "guns and butter" it opted heavily for "guns". Egypt has armed itself with top of the line American weapons systems with an emphasis on the equipment it would need (including mobile anti-aircraft missile systems) for a drive across the Sinai towards an invasion of the Jewish State. And this operation is the common feature of the major military exercises periodically held (they of course don't say "Israel" - just someone located "to the East of the Suez Canal". Take out a map...).

Sure, it could very well be that President Mubarak doesn't really have any plans to actually go through with such a move. But no one in the world can predict with any reasonable degree of accuracy who or what will rule Egypt five years from now - let alone a decade from now.

Hmmm. (And yes, those of you who are regular readers know that I believe Lerner is correct).

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 7:07 PM