Can Israel attack Iran?
This post is not about whether Israel is politically capable of attacking Iran. It's about whether Israel is militarily capable of attacking Iran. There's a May 2012 article on Time Magazine's website by Karl Vick and Aaron Klein which claims that
we're not militarily capable of attacking Iran (Hat Tip: Shy Guy via
Tomer Devorah). This isn't a question of whether we have planes or missiles. It's a question of how we'd defend ourselves from a counter-attack without the use of American-supplied x-band radar.
The discreet complex atop Mt. Keren is a U.S. military installation,
and the 100 U.S. service members who staff it are the only foreign
troops stationed in Israel. Most are guards; a few are support. The
technicians are recognizable by the protective suits they wear to shield
them from the extraordinary amounts of radiation generated by the no
less extraordinary apparatus the base is built around.
The small, rectangular-shaped portable radar peeking around a concrete
blast wall is so advanced it can see over the horizon, and so sensitive
it can spot a softball tossed in the air from 2,900 miles away. (Tehran
is a mere 1,000 miles away to the northeast.) On Mt. Keren, the X-band
radar is indeed pointed northeast, toward Iran, where it could detect a
Shahab-3 missile launched toward Israel just seconds into its flight —
and six to seven minutes earlier than Israel would know from its own
radar, called Green Pine.
The extra time means a great deal. Six additional minutes increases by
at least 60% the time Israeli officials would have to sound sirens that
will send civilians scrambling into bomb shelters.
It also substantially
increases the chances of launching interceptors to knock down the
incoming missile before it reaches Israel, hiking the likelihood its
wreckage or warhead falls in, say, the wastes of the Jordanian desert
rather than Israel's heavily populated coastal plain. And should the
interceptor miss, the extra time might allow for the launch of a second
one.
All this is possible, however, only if U.S. officials choose to share
the information, because only Americans have eyes on the radar. And if
it's difficult to imagine a U.S. commander-in-chief choosing to withhold
an early warning that could save civilian lives of a close ally, both
sides recognize that if the Iranian missiles were launched in
retaliation for an Israeli air strike, the onus might be on the Israeli
government that set such events in motion. In any event, military
officials and outside analysts say that uncertainty can only inhibit any
Israeli impulse to "go it alone."
I wrote many, many posts about the x-band radar when it was first installed. X-band was a
parting gift from George W. Bush, and was installed in early 2009, shortly before Bush left office. The Americans did insist on controlling it, but they insisted on that in every other installation too (you may recall that in Turkey there was a dispute because the
Turks object to information from their x-band radar being shared with Israel). But in mid-2009, the Americans did allow Israel to
station at least one person in the control room. Here's what I wrote about it then, and I think it still applies.
Note that the Americans are running the show and that there's still only one Israeli being allowed in. I argued here
that we are better off with the Americans running the show without us
than we would be without the radar at all. I still believe that. If
there's really an attack, God forbid, the Americans are unlikely to
refuse to turn the radar on. They know that Iran would like nothing more
than to have some 'high quality' American casualties.
On the other hand, with Hopenchange in power, one never knows for sure....
In 2011, x-band radar installations in Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia were
linked.
All this is not to say that the US will definitely turn on the radar if Israel attacks Iran. We already know that the Obama administration
refused to turn on Japan's radar during a North Korean missile test. And we already know that the US
sharply cut back joint exercises with Israel and denied it anti-missile systems that could be used against Iran.
Bottom line: Israel may not benefit from the x-band radar in defending against counter-strikes from an attack on Iran. But to jump from there to say that not having the x-band radar would prevent Israel from attacking Iran is still a big jump. A military strike on Iran is considered a last resort anyway. The fact that we might not have an extra layer of defense that would be nice to have won't stop it.
Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Binyamin Netanyahu, Iranian nuclear threat, Israeli attack on Iran, x-band radar
Israel plans to destroy Iran's missiles on the ground?
Take this with a grain of salt, because the source is the Sunday Times of London's
not always reliable Uzi Mahnaimi. This time Mahnaimi is claiming that Israel has stationed (or will station) Eitan/Heron drones in Azerbaijan. The drones will be used to
destroy Iranian missiles on the ground as soon as their engines are fired using data from the x-band radar stationed in Israel under United States control (Hat Tip:
Director Blue).
According to the report Sunday, an
American-made X-band radar system deployed at the Nevatim airbase in the
Negev “can detect an Iranian missile on its launchpad 1,000 miles to
the northeast,” giving Israel up to 13 minutes of warning.
The report quoted an Israeli military source
as saying “We’ll try to ‘kill’ them at the booster stage — the moment
their engines are ignited.”
Reportedly, such a preemptive strike would be
carried out with American Hellfire missiles, delivered by Eitan drones —
also known as Herons — based in Azerbaijan.
“If that happens, and it isn’t as easy as it
sounds, then the remaining missiles will be finished off by our Air
Defense Command,” a “well-informed Israeli source” was quoted as saying.
Let's assume for a minute that this story is true. Why would anyone tell Mahnaimi - and only Mahnaimi - about it?
The Eitan is certainly capable of doing this sort of thing, but if Israel has actually gotten Azerbaijan to allow us to use their bases (and this
has come up before), why would anyone leak that fact to Mahnaimi?
Sorry folks, but this one reminds me of
Perrytales. It sounds cool, but there's really nothing behind it.
Labels: Azerbaijan, Eitan unmanned aerial system, Heron TP unmanned aerial system, Iranian nuclear threat, Israeli attack on Iran, x-band radar
Turks rally against NATO
No, you didn't misread the headline. Iran's Press TV is reporting that there was a
rally against NATO in Turkey on Saturday (and no, that is not a picture from it) (Hat Tip:
Joshua I).
Activists from different political parties are going to participate in Trabzon rally scheduled for 12:30 a.m. Saturday.
The organizers of the protest say that the implementation of the planned project will not only be harmful to Turkey, but also to the whole Middle East.
Turkish newspaper Aydinlik published interviews with some of the political officials that will participate at the rally.
Yavuz Karan, the provincial head of the Republican People's Party (CHP) told the newspaper that “we don't want our country to be a shield for other countries. This is why we will join the demonstration.”
Zekeriya Vural, the provincial head of the Democratic Left Party (DSP) said that the “missile system project will harm Turkey. That is why we will participate at the demonstration and fully support it.”
Sabri Dilber, the provincial head of Turkey's Workers' Party, said that “our plan is to make all the Trabzon people aware about the plan. We invite all people in the region to join the rally.”
The missile system is reportedly planned to be stationed at Kurecik district of Malatya province in eastern Turkey.
I think it would be great if Turkey withdrew from NATO. Heh.
Labels: Turkey, Turkish obsession with Israel, x-band radar
NATO won't share data from Turkish radar with Israel?
There have been many stories over the past few weeks that claimed that Israel would or would not be granted access to information from the American-supplied x-band NATO radar installation in eastern Turkey. What's troublesome about this report - which makes the same claim again - is the quote from US Secretary of Defense
Leon Panetta (Hat Tip:
Joshua I).
U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said Israel would not have access to intelligence from the missile defense system. “Clearly, the NATO members are the ones that will participate in the program and access information produced by the missile defense system,” Panetta said.
Well, okay, but will the NATO members provide that information to Israel anyway? Turkish Defense Minister İsmet Yılmaz says that Turkey has to trust the NATO countries not to provide the information to Israel, but of course that doesn't mean that they won't. Hmmm.
Labels: Turkish obsession with Israel, x-band radar
NATO won't share data from Turkish radar with Israel?
The Turkish newspaper Hurriyet reports that data from the American-supplied x-band radar to be deployed in Turkey by NATO
will not be shared with Israel. But is that really what NATO said? (Hat Tip:
Joshua I).
NATO has announced that there is no agreement in place to share radar images obtained from the alliance’s missile defense radar system with Israel, countering Turkish fears that data from a station to be placed on its soil would be shared with Tel Aviv.
“We do not have an agreement on data sharing with Israel in missile defense radar system,” NATO spokesman Damien Arnaud said Friday. Stating that NATO has an agreement on “keeping confidential data” with Mediterranean Dialogue members that include Israel, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Mauritania and Jordan, Arnaud said, “This means we can share confidential documents and data with these countries.”
Responding to a question on the topic, NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen said: “I cannot make any comments on this type of operational details. However, I can assure you that we are sharing intelligence to protect our people as far as we can. This is the core of being an alliance.” On Sept. 9, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said the early warning radar will be deployed in Kurecik near Malatya in the southeast.
It doesn't look like NATO is going to come right out and agree not to share data with Israel. And a statement like that is the last thing that US President Obama needs as we approach an election year.
Will NATO share data with Israel? As always, if they think it's appropriate. And when it comes to Iran, yes.
Labels: NATO, Turkish obsession with Israel, x-band radar
Turkish opposition no better than the AKP
The leader of Turkey's Kemalist opposition party, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, has announced that his party is opposed to NATO stationing x-band radar on Turkish soil, calling the radar an '
Israel shield' (Hat Tip:
Joshua I).
“The CHP [Republican People’s Party] is opposed to the idea of an ‘Israel Shield,’ which will be established only to protect the benefits of Israel,” Kılıçdaroğlu wrote on Monday on his official Twitter account.
The main opposition leader also said his party has launched a nationwide protest campaign against the radar base.
A memorandum of understanding signed last week by Turkish Foreign Ministry Undersecretary Feridun Sinirlioğlu and U.S. Ambassador to Ankara Francis J. Ricciardone earlier this month envisions the deployment of a U.S. AN/TPY-2 (X-band) early warning radar system at a military installation at Kürecik in the eastern province of Malatya as part of the NATO missile-defense project.
As part of the project, missile shield interceptors and their launching system will be deployed in Romanian and Polish territory, in 2015 and 2018, respectively.
Of course, one cannot expect the Obama administration to try to bring the Turks into line. After all, they're a sovereign country....
Labels: Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Turkish obsession with Israel, x-band radar
US linking Israel's missile shield to Turkey and Saudi Arabia
It should be interesting to hear what Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has to say about this story.
You will recall that on Friday I reported on Eli Lake's Newsweek story that says that the Obama administration
sold bunker busters to Israel in 2009.
The full story is now out and it includes this little tidbit: The United States is
linking the missile defense shields of its Middle East allies - including Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia - via the use of x-band radar which the US insists on controlling.
The Obama administration also initiated a diplomatic effort to persuade Arab and Muslim states in the Middle East like Saudi Arabia and Turkey to commit to an ambitious plan to inter-connect their missile defenses with Israel’s. This topic is particularly sensitive because most Arab states today have no formal diplomatic ties with Israel, and those that do have seen a downgrade in relations since the start of the Arab Spring protests.
Cartwright described the missile shield this way: “Give them the capability, but make the capability inter-dependent between more than one state, so if one pulls out it can never be stronger than the group.”
But the states being forced into cooperation by Washington are not all playing nice. An X-band radar is scheduled to be shipped to Turkey by the end of the year. Yet Turkey’s leaders have threatened not to share data from the radar with Israel. The White House continues to push back against Ankara. Cartwright said that another, similar radar would be installed in a Gulf state in the near future, declining to be more specific.
This vision of an interconnected missile defense for U.S. allies in the Middle East started all the way back with Ronald Reagan. But it is Obama who has pushed it into implementation. “He gets credit,” Cartwright said of Obama. “He is the one that gave the go-ahead.”
But that isn't helping Obama much with Israel's supporters.
“In some ways the U.S.-Israel security relationship continues to get stronger with each new administration,” says Josh Block, the former chief spokesman for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. “But this administration, in airing private disputes and sometimes publicly distancing itself from Israel, has encouraged Israel’s adversaries to pursue their hostile aims against the Jewish state.” Obama’s poll numbers among U.S. Jews have plummeted from 83 percent at the start of his presidency to 54 percent this month.
Perhaps that's because with the US
controlling the radar, there are no guarantees that a country will be
able to use it when it needs it. The good news is that - for now at least - Israel is
in the control room.
Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Israel, missile shield, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, x-band radar
Turkey's x-band radar deal
On Friday, I reported on Turkey's agreement to
install x-band radar as part of a NATO early warning system. Relying on a
Wall Street Journal report, I wrote that the United States would control the system - as it does in Israel and Japan - and that therefore the United States would share information with Israel, contrary to Turkish insistence that Israel not be a beneficiary.
I also reported that Iran - which Turkey had insisted not be explicitly mentioned as an enemy - was not explicitly mentioned, but the system is intended to defend against attacks by Iran on NATO members and on Israel.
Turkey's Zaman
reported differently on Friday (Hat Tip:
Joshua I). They say that no enemies were named.
The summit came after months of discussions between Turkey and the US, in particular over some aspects of the proposed shield, most notably whether countries such as Turkey's neighbors Iran and Syria should be named as potential threats. Ankara insisted that the proposed system should provide protection for all territories of member states and that reference to any country would undermine the defensive nature of the shield by antagonizing countries singled out as a threat. The Turkish insistence paid off in the end as the NATO summit endorsed the missile defense system plans without naming any country as a potential threat.
And Hurriyet discusses the question of sharing data with Israel, where it seems that
Turkey did not get its way.
There were two main concerns for Turkey before joining the project. The first one was that despite the fact that radar would be deployed at a location in Turkey, a small piece of its territory in eastern Anatolia close to Iran would not be covered by the shield. Turkey demanded the deployment of anti-ballistic Patriot missiles in this region to fully secure its territory. Turkey’s second concern was that data collected at the radar site could be shared real-time with Israel. The WSJ said the U.S. officials told Turkish counterparts that “the U.S. has a ‘separate and robust’ missile defense relationship with Israel, where the U.S. based high-powered X-Band radar in 2008 to bolster Israel’s missile defenses.”
However, it also said data from any U.S. radars around the world could be fused with other data to maximize the effectiveness of its missile defenses. Still, as Turkey announced its decision to deploy radar in its territory, it seems a deal has been reached on Ankara’s specific concern regarding Israel.
I think the 'deal' is that the US controls the radar in Turkey, just as it does in Israel and Japan and that if it wants to share data with Israel in real time, it will share data with Israel in real time.
What could go wrong?
Labels: NATO, Turkish obsession with Israel, x-band radar
Turkey to host NATO early warning radar system
Turkey has agreed to
host a NATO early warning radar system as part of NATO's missile defense shield.
A ministry statement emailed to journalists said discussions on NATO-member Turkey's contribution to the alliance missile defence shield had reached "their final stages."
It did not say when or where the U.S. early warning radar would be stationed.
NATO members agreed to an anti-missile system over Europe to protect against Iranian ballistic missiles at a summit in Lisbon last year. A compromise was reached with Turkey, which has cultivated close ties with its neighbour Iran and had threatened to block the deal if Iran is explicitly named as a threat.
Under the NATO plans, a limited system of U.S. anti-missile interceptors and radars already planned for Europe — to include interceptors in Romania and Poland as well as the radar in Turkey — would be linked to expanded European-owned missile defences. That would create a broad system that protects every NATO country against medium-range missile attack.
Turkey has built close economic ties with Iran and has been at odds with the United States on its stance toward Iran's nuclear program, arguing for a diplomatic solution to the standoff instead of sanctions.
But the agreement over hosting the radar comes at a time when Turkey and Iran appear to be differing on their approach toward Syria, with Turkey becoming increasingly critical of Iranian ally Syria's brutal suppression of anti-regime protests.
The ministry statement made no mention of Iran. It said the system would strengthen both NATO and Turkey's own defence capacities.
But there's another issue here. Turkey was opposed to real-time sharing of the information with Israel. The US has apparently told Turkey there is
nothing they can do to stop that sharing.
U.S. officials told Turks that the United States has a "separate and robust" missile defense relationship with Israel, where the United States based a high-powered X-Band radar in 2008 to bolster Israel's missile defenses. The system is identical to the radar going to Turkey.
That radar can track any Iranian missile aimed at Israel.
But the U.S. made clear that data from any U.S. radars around the world may be fused with other data to maximize the effectiveness of its missile defenses.
Turkey agreed to station the radar on its territory to shore up its relations with NATO and to improve its relations with the US. Given that the Turks have just expelled Israel's ambassador to Turkey, they probably decided they had to do something to keep relations with the US from getting any worse.
More
here.
Labels: early warning system, Iran, NATO, Turkey, x-band radar
Senators raise concern over location of x-band radar in Turkey
Senators Mark Kirk (R-Il) and John Kyl (R-Az) have sounded the alarm over an Obama administration plan to
place x-band radar in Turkey.
Republican Senators Jon Kyl and Mark Kirk wrote Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton seeking reassurances on the possible deal, which was described in a news report last week.
The lawmakers asked for "written assurances" that data collected by a so-called X-band radar "will be made available, in real time" to staunch US ally Israel to be "fully integrated into its battlement management and control."
They also sought a guarantee that "Turkish entities are not engaged, or suspected of engaging" in activities that fall afoul of various US laws aimed at curbing suspected nuclear weapons programs in Iran and Syria and keeping sensitive know-how from North Korea.
And President Barack Obama's administration must also certify that the powerful radar will only be operated by US personnel, and for 24 hours a day, seven days a week, except for maintenance breaks, the senators said.
What could go wrong?
Labels: John Kyl, Mark Kirk, Turkey, x-band radar
