Israel Matzav

Wikileaks (Stratfor) (3 months before Mavi Marmara): 'Turkey looking to break with US and Israel'

Three months before the Mavi Marmara incident, Turkey was looking to break with both Israel and the United States, according to an email allegedly written by people at Stratfor and published by Wikileaks (again I am turning it around to chronological order).

George Friedman wrote:

Turkey would break with israel and the united states. It would be an opportunity erdogan is looking for.

Iran would become more visible but not more powerful. A year after the attack its underlying weakness would still be there and its dependence on turkey greater.

In my view the ourtcome of this is turkish power. But remeber, my insight is not that israel will attack. Its that kissinger thinks they will attack. Huge difference.

$

***

On Feb 20, 2010, at 11:04 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

Erdogan is looking to break with the US and Israel? Are there other possible places he could do this, if he is actively trying?

***

On Feb 20, 2010, at 11:14 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

I meant to say, if not for Iran, would he look for other places/weaknesses in the US/Israel relationship to cause a break? And, if he did break with these two, would it mean necessarily that he would move closer to Russia?

Reva Bhalla wrote:

US and Israel are the ones that matter. it's about redefining Turkey's role as an independent power

***

No wonder Medvedev has 2 trips planned to Turkey this spring..... Russia will try to take advantage.

Reva Bhalla wrote:

yes... turkey isn't only using Iran as the cause for the break. look at turkey's public outrage over the Israeli offensive in Gaza as an example. Turkey is already pretty tight with Russia, but this doesn't mean Turkey has to necessarily get closer to Russia. Turkey will play nice with the Russians but also wants to show it can play on its own

And as a result, Obama is kissing up to Erdogan.

Could it be that Obama is giving Turkey an outsize role among US allies in order to keep it out of the Russian court? Nah, Obama wouldn't be shrewd enough to do something like that. It's much more likely he's courting Turkey because it's Islamist.

Labels: Mavi Marmara, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Stratfor, Turkey, Wikileaks

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 3:26 PM