Israel Matzav

Why India and Georgia?

Why were the attacks on Monday carried out in India and Georgia? Here's an attempt at an explanation.

Hezbollah's and Iran's focus therefore has been centered on Israeli representations abroad. Attempts to attack targets in Azerbaijan, Bulgaria and most recently Thailand were nipped in the bud through close cooperation between Israeli intelligence and the local security services. A Hezbollah cell operating in Western Europe was also apprehended last year before it could launch an operation. Two years ago, a shooting at cars carrying Israeli diplomats in Jordan resulted in no casualties.

There were multiple intelligence warnings of a pending attack - and the recent assassinations of nuclear scientists in Tehran and mysterious explosions at various Iranian installations only added impetus. The twin locations, India and Georgia, are countries where Israel has close relationships with the local political leaderships and especially with the defense establishments. They are also countries where the security forces are not in total control of wide regions and borders.

Read the whole thing.

There are actually four countries surrounding Iran where Israel has attempted to improve ties recently: India, Georgia, Azerbaijan (where, as noted above, an attack failed, and which was accused by Iran last week of helping Israeli intelligence efforts) and Kazakhstan. So why hasn't Iran tried attacking Kazakhstan? Here's a clue:

Kazakhstan is close to opening a nuclear fuel bank that would allow countries a safe, reliable means of getting fuel for their nuclear power plants, and would theoretically make it more difficult for would-be rogue nuclear states to secretly build weapons.

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What makes Kazakhstan a logical place to host such a bank, in addition to its status of the world's leading uranium producer, is its multi-vectored foreign policy. This is obviously a politicized issue, and countries would be reluctant to buy in if they thought that they could be cut off for political reasons. But Kazakhstan can make a credible case that it is a pretty neutral broker in the world.

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Good relations with Iran would seem exactly the reason Kazakhstan is a good place for this, although that situation increasingly looks too far gone for this bank to make any difference.

Iran may be warning the other three countries against cooperating with an Israeli strike on it. It may not want to, or may not feel it has to, give such a warning to Kazakhstan. In any event, the choice of Georgia and India does not seem accidental.

Labels: Georgia, India, Iranian nuclear program, Islamic terrorism, Kazakhstan

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:15 PM