Israel Matzav

Just what they need: With Egypt running out of wheat, US sending F-16's

Egypt is down to a less-than-two-month supply of wheat, but that doesn't disturb the Hussein Obama administration. They're sending F-16's to Egypt instead.

The US officials say Washington will deliver four F-16 fighter jets in the next few weeks.

They are part of an already agreed bigger order of 20 planes - eight of which were sent to Egypt in January. The final eight are expected to be shipped later this year.

White House spokesman Jay Carney on Wednesday reiterated that it would not be "in the best interests of the United States to make immediate changes to our assistance programmes".

He added that the administration would take its time to consider the implications of removing Mr Morsi from power.

US military aid to Egypt is estimated to be $1.3bn (£860m) each year.

Don't get me wrong - I don't think the US should cut aid to Egypt right now (which they have threatened to do), but shouldn't they be sending some butter instead of guns? 

Speaking to Reuters near midnight in a tent at a vigil where thousands of Morsi’s supporters are protesting against the Islamist president’s removal, former Minister of Supplies Bassem Ouda said the state had just 500,000 tonnes of imported wheat left.

Egypt is the world’s largest importer of wheat, half of which it distributes to its 84 million people in the form of heavily subsidised bread. The ousted government closely guarded figures about its foreign grain stores even as a shortage of cash halted its imports.

Two and a half years of political turmoil have caused a deep economic crisis in Egypt, scaring away investors and tourists, draining foreign currency reserves and making it difficult to maintain imports of food and fuel.

After buying 3.7 million tonnes from a domestic harvest that is now finishing, Egypt has 3 million tonnes of home-grown wheat left in its stores, Ouda said.

Egypt normally mixes its lower-gluten domestic wheat with equal parts foreign wheat in order to produce flour suitable to make bread. Ouda said Morsi’s government had tried to increase the ratio of domestic wheat it used to 60 per cent.

In a typical year Egypt imports about 10 million tonnes of wheat. Egypt had not imported any wheat since February - its longest absence from the market in years - until the eve of Morsi’s overthrow when it bought 180,000 tonnes for shipment in August.

Egypt's wheat shortage is not a new story. It goes back at least to when President Mubarak was deposed and probably before that. Three Gulf countries have promised Egypt $12 billion, but promises are one thing and cash is another. What's astounding in all this is that the 'sane' countries in the world are ignoring a problem that could lead to the starvation of some 80 million people (at least).

What could go wrong?

Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Egyptian economy, F-16

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 2:39 PM 1 comments

Will Egypt try to save itself by going to war with Israel?

Lee Smith reminds us that - Wednesday's events notwithstanding - the Egyptian army is not a popular institution in that country, and wonders whether the army might not set off a war with Israel in a bid to distract the population from its economic problems and possibly even gain some international aid.

The bigger problem is that the Egyptian army has no plan to stabilize the country. And even if the army takes over, what price is it willing to pay to keep the streets quiet? Shooting protesters? How many? Egyptians, contrary to received wisdom, do not love the army, or else hundreds of people wouldn’t have flashed laser lights at a military helicopter the other night in an effort to blind the pilot and crash it. The army can’t bring order because the energies unleashed with the fall of Mubarak two-plus years ago can’t be put back in the bottle.

The Egyptian army has only one card left to play. Western journalists and other true believers in the promise of the Arab Spring may be shocked by the suggestion that Egypt may be headed to war with Israel in the not-too-distant future. But as the country implodes, war has become the easy way out. It doesn’t matter that the Egyptian army doesn’t want another catastrophic contest with Israel—neither did Anwar Sadat 40 years ago when he saved Egypt by going to war with Israel, which in turn helped him acquire the superpower patronage of the United States.

...

Egyptians are definitely angry at the state of their country’s economy. But the fact that staples like bread, rice and oil have skyrocketed is to be blamed almost entirely on the fact that protesters have filled the streets since January 2011. In bringing down Mubarak and prosecuting the regime’s technocrats who won high marks from the IMF for reforming the Egyptian economy and attracting foreign direct investment, the revolutionaries ensured that it would be at least a generation before any Egyptian official sought to implement the same policies.

It was in order to avoid unrest that Morsi balked at cutting subsidies and otherwise reforming the economy to satisfy the IMF’s requirements for a $4.8 billion loan. If Qatar wasn’t floating the Morsi government a few billion dollars every couple of months, Egypt would starve. And how do the Egyptians repay Doha’s munificence? By claiming that Morsi’s fall will return Qatar to its proper and, compared to Egypt, insignificant place in regional affairs. Maybe Qatar’s newly enthroned emir will decide he’d rather build more air-conditioned soccer stadiums than feed the inhabitants of the Nile River valley.

...

A competent leader, likely not Morsi, will soon come to see that he has no choice but to make a virtue of necessity and export the one commodity that Egypt has in abundance—violence. So, why not bind the warring, immature, and grandiose Egyptian factions together in a pact against Israel, the country’s sole transcendent object of loathing? Indeed, it’s not entirely clear why Egypt’s venomous strains of anti-Zionist, anti-Semitic sentiment have not yet hit fever pitch. 

Yes, Morsi doesn’t want to get the White House angry. And there’s also the obvious fact that Egyptians are too divided against themselves right now to be unified against anyone else. But that can’t last for long, or else Egypt will implode.

So, here are the facts that Egyptians and Western reporters alike would rather not face: There is simply no way that today’s Egypt can feed its own people, or fuel the tractors that harvest its crops—let alone attract tens of billions of dollars in foreign investment to grow a hi-tech miracle along the banks of the Nile. That’s fantasyland stuff—like the fantasy of an American-style constitutional democracy run by the Muslim Brotherhood and guaranteed by the Egyptian army. 

So, what’s left? A short war today—precipitated by a border incident in Sinai, or a missile gone awry in the Gaza Strip, and concluded before the military runs out of the ammunition that Washington will surely not resupply—will reunify the country and earn Egypt money from an international community eager to broker peace. Taking up arms against Israel will also return Egypt to its former place of prominence in an Arab world that is adrift in a sea of blood. But even more important is the fact that there is no other plausible way out: Sacrificing thousands of her sons on the altar of war is the only way to save Mother Egypt from herself.

Read the whole thing.

The scenario of Egypt going to war with Israel reminds me of The Mouse that Roared.  But there are two small differences. Israel is not a superpower. And Egypt's economy requires a lot more help than just about any country in the world can give.

Labels: Egypt, Egyptian economy, Egyptian Revolution, Egyptian-Israeli border, Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 11:45 AM 5 comments

Tough times in Egypt

Another story I've been meaning to post for a few days.... Egypt is starving.

Egyptians are getting hungry. The fall of the Egyptian pound to just 60% of its 2012 exchange rate against the dollar has priced everything but bread out of the reach of the poorer half of the population, and the bread supply is now at risk.

The news late last week that Libya and Qatar may lend US$5 billion to Egypt was overshadowed by reports that Cairo owes $5 billion to the oil companies that produce oil and gas on its territory. Half of the amount is overdue, and oil companies reportedly expect to wait years for payment. Egypt's arrears on trade credits from suppliers of oil, wheat, and other essential items probably exceed its $8.8 billion cash reserves, leaving the country flat broke.

With a trade deficit running at $32 billion, the Libyan and Qatari money covers just a couple of months; stiffing the oil companies might have covered the past couple of months. If the Egyptian government finally comes to terms with the International Monetary Fund for a $4.8 billion loan, that will cover another few weeks.

Egypt's finances have been in free fall since the mid-2000s, when prices for food and other essential imports soared while export earnings for cotton and other products stagnated. At $60 billion, the country's trade deficit is a seventh of its gross domestic product. The 40% fall in the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound from 6 to the dollar late last year to 8.25 on the black market last week will raise the cost of imports even further.

The half of Egyptians that lives on $2 a day no longer eats beans, let alone milk products. 

It gets worse, and there doesn't seem to be much hope for the foreseeable future. Read the whole thing.  Maybe they need to give up on destroying the Jewish state.

Labels: Egypt, Egyptian economy

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 12:16 AM 1 comments

Soccer Dad's Middle East Media Sampler

Here's Soccer Dad's Middle East Media Sampler for Wednesday, April 10.

1) Egyptian plagues

Last week Zvi Mazel wrote in the Jerusalem Post (h/t Leslie Eastman)

In a remarkable and enduring show of unity, non-Islamic opposition parties under the banner of the National Salvation Front are boycotting the regime until their demands – canceling the Islamic constitution and setting up a consensus government until new elections are held – are met.
The Muslim Brotherhood who had won a sweeping victory in the first free parliamentary elections and got their candidate elected president have bitterly disappointed the people who had put their faith in them.
Nothing has been done to improve their lot. Upon taking office Morsi had promised – and failed – to take care of five burning issues within a hundred days: growing insecurity, monster traffic jams in the capital, lack of fuel and cooking gas, lack of subsidized bread, and the mounting piles of refuse in the streets.

In The Pharoh weeps, Judith Miller cataloged some of the economic problems facing Egypt:

While Cairo may still be safer than Chicago, or even New York, Egyptian women, for the first time in memory, fear shopping or taking cabs at night. Cairo’s police, blamed for the deaths of protestors and unhappy with their pay, working conditions, and lack of respect, sit in their precinct houses, refusing to provide security that Egyptians once took for granted. Tourists have vanished, depriving Egypt of a vital source of jobs and hard currency. Unemployment has risen from 9.8 percent in 2010 to 13 percent today. Inflation is officially 8.7 percent, though more like 9.5 percent, or even higher, for food and basic commodities, say economists. Even these figures are misleading, since an estimated 40 percent of Egypt’s economy is “black” or informal, unregulated by and unreported to the government, according to Hazem el-Beblawi, an economist who served as deputy prime minister under the army’s unpopular transition government in 2011. Beblawi, a strong advocate of free-market liberalism who resigned his post that year, accusing the army of taking Egypt in the “wrong direction,” says youth unemployment probably tops 19 percent. Egypt, he estimates, has less than its officially claimed $13.5 billion in hard-currency reserves (versus $36 billion before the revolution). “Egypt imports roughly $60 billion worth of goods and services,” he says. “It exports under $25 billion.”
By summer, Beblawi predicts, the government will be unable to import the wheat that sustains the poor—Egypt imports 10 million tons of wheat per year, the most of any nation—or the diesel that fuels bread ovens and transports 99 percent of everything that moves in this country of more than 85 million. Egypt’s dilemma is this: it cannot politically afford to stop providing the costly subsidies to the poor that distort its economy. Poor Egyptians spend 70 percent of their income on food, versus 55 percent for Egyptians as a whole; Americans spend roughly 14 percent. But unless it reduces these subsidies and adopts a pro-growth budget, Egypt cannot secure the $4.8 billion International Monetary Fund loan it needs to unlock what Angus Blair, a Cairo-based former investment banker and founder of Signet Institute, an economic think tank, estimates could be $14 billion in aid and investment. Egypt spends about 20 percent of its budget on fuel subsidies alone. In other words, the government would be committing political suicide to do what economists say must be done to sustain the country’s economic viability. Only a government that enjoys public confidence can risk taking such steps. “Egypt’s economic crisis has political roots,” Beblawi says. “And a political solution is needed.” So far, he adds, none is in sight.
With their legendary “sabr,” or patience, nearly exhausted, Egyptians blame the lack of growth, jobs, fuel, services, security, and stability on what many call the “incompetence” of President Mohammed Morsi and his ruling Muslim Brotherhood. And they blame the United States, too, for supporting Morsi, who eked out an election victory last year and took power last July thanks only to low voter turnout and a fractious, divided secular opposition. “People no longer trust Morsi,” Beblawi said, speaking for many among Cairo’s professional elite and middle classes.

Add to Morsi's power grab and economic failures, the increasing violence against Copts. The New York Times reports Attack on Christians in Egypt Comes After a Pledge:

Clashes erupted immediately after the service between the emerging mourners and a crowd outside the cathedral. It was unclear who started the violence. But later dozens of riot police with armored vehicles and tear-gas canons appeared to enter the fray on the side of crowds of young Muslim men who were throwing rocks and fire bombs at the mourners.
In what seemed like a siege of the cathedral, tear-gas canisters fell inside the walls of its compound, sending gas into the sanctuary and two nuns running for shelter in a nearby loading dock.
...
“The police are not trying to protect us or do anything to stop the violence,” said Wael Eskandar, a Coptic Christian activist. “On the contrary, they are actively aiding the people in civilian clothes” attacking the Christians, he said.

Jonathan Tobin concludes in The U.S. and the Murders at the Cathedral:

It does no good to pretend, as some claim, that Morsi can’t stop the attacks on Christians or that the forces pushing the country to the brink of religious war are unrelated to the Brotherhood and its supporters. While attacks on Christians were hardly unknown during the long reign of deposed dictator Hosni Mubarak, it isn’t possible to separate the heightened tension from the expectations of Islamists that they have the Christian minority on the run. The brazen manner with which these mobs have attacked a symbol of Christianity like the Cathedral with the assistance of the police is a signal that things are heading in the wrong direction. The spectacle of security forces with armored personnel carriers and tear gas canons joining the violence on the side of thugs throwing rocks and firebombs at Christian mourners leaving the cathedral makes it hard to argue that this is the work of extremists unconnected with the ruling party.
That Muslims who are prepared to riot and murder at the merest hint of insult aimed at Islam taunted the Christians with what the Times called “lewd gestures involving the cross” in the presence of the police is itself appalling. But it is also indicative of a shift in the mood of the Middle East, in which it is clear that anything goes when it comes to religious conflict. Though the Brotherhood has promised gullible Westerners that it won’t impose its beliefs on non-Muslims or turn the country into a theocratic state, evidence is mounting that the Kulturkampf in Egypt is in full swing.
If President Obama is serious about standing up for human rights, it is necessary for him to speak out publicly against what is going on in Egypt and to start using some of the leverage over its government that he was quick to employ when showing Mubarak the door or threatening the military to allow the Brotherhood to take office. If he fails to do so, the Muslim and Arab world won’t be slow to draw the same conclusions that Egyptians in the street are drawing from the role of the police in the assault on the cathedral. They will think that Obama is indifferent to the fate of the Copts or, even worse, that he has no problems with the Brotherhood’s push for power.

Yet in The Arab Quarter Century, Thomas Friedman insists that he was right all along:

Still, two things surprise me. The first is how incompetent the Muslim Brotherhood has been. In Egypt, the Brotherhood has presided over an economic death spiral and a judiciary caught up in idiocies like investigating the comedian Bassem Youssef, Egypt’s Jon Stewart, for allegedly insulting President Mohamed Morsi. (See Stewart’s perfect takedown of Morsi.) Every time the Brotherhood had a choice of acting in an inclusive way or seizing more power, it seized more power, depriving it now of the broad base needed to make necessary but painful economic reforms.
The second surprise? How weak the democratic opposition has been. The tragedy of the Arab center-left is a complicated story, notes Marc Lynch, a Middle East expert at George Washington University and the author of “The Arab Uprising: The Unfinished Revolutions of the New Middle East.” Many of the more secular, more pro-Western Egyptian political elites who could lead new center-left parties, he said, had been “co-opted by the old regime” for its own semiofficial parties and therefore “were widely discredited in the eyes of the public.” That left youngsters who had never organized a party, or a grab bag of expatriates, former regime officials, Nasserites and liberal Islamists, whose only shared idea was that the old regime must go.

And how would the Muslim Brotherhood have proven its "competence?" Surely there's been incompetence in the way Morsi and company have ruled, but to attribute their governing failure to "incompetence," ignores the nature of the Muslim Brotherhood. What Friedman attributes to incompetence masks his own ignorance. He assumed that the Muslim Brotherhood was interested in governing, not in accruing power to itself. In his analyses of Egypt over the past two years Friedman ignored the totalitarian nature of Islamists. Sure, Friedman is correct now to argue that the United States needs to use its leverage to effect change in Egypt (or at least attempt to) but he's been a cheerleader for the Muslim Brotherhood until recently. That is not due to his expertise, but to his ignorance, something he refuses to own up to.

MT "@shadihamid: New #Egypt poll: 37% of Egyptians would vote for Morsi again; Sabahi 3%; Baradei 1%; Amr Moussa 1% bit.ly/Z3qmBg"
— Ikhwanweb (@Ikhwanweb) April 8, 2013

Endowments Ministry bans political sermons, suspends popular sheikh Mazhar Shaheen - egyptindependent.com/news/endowment… #Egypt
— Bassem Sabry باسم (@Bassem_Sabry) April 10, 2013

Brave, astonishing ToI op-ed on why Arab Spring failed, by ex-Iranian foreign ministry employee toi.sr/17qi8GW via @timesofisrael
— David Horovitz (@davidhorovitz) April 10, 2013

2)The Syria Debacle
Once upon a time, President Obama's top policy advisers recommended that he aid the Syria rebels. That time has long passed. While the Obama administration initially saw the Muslim Brotherhood as a bulwark against Al Qaeda, but that strategy hasn't been working out very well.

In an audio statement released online yesterday, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, the head of al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), announced that his organization shall henceforth be known as the “Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant.” The new name reflects AQI’s unchecked growth, primarily into neighboring Syria, since the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq.
Since late 2011, the Al Nusrah Front has greatly expanded its operations. The organization has become one of the most effective fighting forces in the war against Bashar al Assad’s crumbling regime.
Al Nusrah is better known in the West by its true name: al Qaeda.

Michael Rubin adds:

That should put Washington in a diplomatic quandary. Qatari and Turkish support for the Nusra Front is now effectively aiding an al-Qaeda affiliate sworn not only to kill Bashar al-Assad but also Americans. If Gulf analysts in Bahrain and Kuwait are to be believed, Qatar is mucking about with such groups not simply out of religious solidarity, but also because the emir of Qatar is high on the notion that tiny Qatar can afford to muck about and be a player on the international stage. Turkey would rather pump money to an al-Qaeda affiliate than recognize the rights of Syrian Kurds who will not pay fealty to Turkey’s leader, like the Democratic Union Party (PYD) which now controls most Kurdish areas in Syria.
A no-fly zone, such as that Max Boot advocates, would have once helped ordinary Syrians protect themselves against the excesses of Bashar al-Assad’s rule. And it still may not be such a bad idea, so long as it simply does not do the Nusra Front’s work for it. Nor is simply funding the Syrian opposition wise since neither the State Department nor Central Intelligence Agency is skilled at separating the wheat from the chaff among Syrian opposition groups. Liberals will not rise to the top in any safe-haven when faced with a group bent on their repression at any cost. Whether we like it or not, any strategy for Syria must now prioritize crushing the Nusra Front. Defeating Assad and hoping for the best is not a strategy that will bolster U.S. interests.

And Barry Rubin reminds what weapons these rebels may well get access to. (To be clear, Salafist and Muslim Brotherhood affiliated rebels have these weapons; Al Qaeda affiliated groups don't appear to have them, yet.)

Briefly, the story is this: The weapons are generically known as MANPAD for Man Portable Air Defense Missile. The equipment captured in Libya and from the Syrian army in Syria or obtained by other means consists of four types. The SA16 is a short-range version which has been captured by the rebels, specifically when they took the giant Syrian army base in Aleppo.
The only weapon from Libya is the older SA7, since the Libyans didn’t have more advanced versions. It has been reported –though all such figures are not necessarily reliable — that about 5000 SA7 missiles were destroyed by the U.S. and other forces but that about 15,000 remained missing. The missiles are not usable forever, and some of those in the Libyan arsenal were very old, but apparently many of them would still work. Here’s an example of a reasonably reliable report saying that a large number of SA7s were delivered to Syrian rebels through Turkey last September.
Then there’s the Chinese FN-6 , standard for the Chinese air force, which was used to shoot down a Syrian transport helicopter at Menagh Air Base near Aleppo. How did that one get there, through the U.S.-Turkish-Saudi-Qatari arms supply program or another way? It is claimed that Syrian rebels shot down two military helicopters with this weapon.
And this brings us to the best of all, the SA24. While some have been misidentified, they were obtained from the 46th Syrian regiment base west of Aleppo.

For all the hope the Arab Spring originally engendered, it is increasingly looking like a disaster for American interests.

Labels: Arab spring, Christian Copts, Egypt, Egyptian economy, Free Syrian Army, Middle East Media Sampler, Mohammed Morsy, Muslim Brotherhood, Soccer Dad, Syria, Syrian uprising, Tom Friedman

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 6:47 PM 0 comments

Soccer Dad's Middle East Media Sampler

Here's Soccer Dad's Middle East Media Sampler for Wednesday, April 3.
1) Meanwhile in Egypt The New York Times is reporting Egyptians Struggle as Wary Tourists Stay Away:

Tourism plummeted in 2011 with the fall of President Hosni Mubarak and the unrest that followed. Some tourists have started to return, but officials say they are mostly beachgoers rather than the more lucrative cultural tourists who spend 10 days or more in Egypt, and spend accordingly during once-in-a-lifetime vacations.
Every headline about a riot in Egypt deepens the crisis. Cairo has been the hardest hit, with hotel occupancy falling to below 15 percent or worse in parts of the city closest to protests, according to Hani el-Shaer of the Egyptian Hotel Association. From Cairo, the hardship ripples across the country, affecting taxi and horse carriage drivers, boat operators, tour guides and store vendors.
“If something goes wrong in Cairo, tourists cancel the whole trip,” said Hisham Zaazou, Egypt’s minister of tourism.

There is no direct mention in the article that the repressive nature of the Muslim Brotherhood government might be deterring tourists.
An editorial in the Washington Post warns New laws would cripple Egyptian democratic institutions:

The former, autocratic government of Hosni Mubarak sporadically sought to repress NGOs, and the military regime that ruled the country in 2011 brought a criminal case against dozens of NGO employees, including a number of U.S. citizens. The flare-up in U.S.-Egyptian relations was defused when the Americans were allowed to leave the country, but the criminal case has continued, with a verdict now set for June. While saying that it is “determined to ensure that civil society is empowered,” President Mohamed Morsi’s government has done nothing to stop the criminal case; and now the legislative Shura Council, which is dominated by the ruling party, is considering restrictions on NGOs that go much further than those of the Mubarak government.

The editorial board of the Washington Post was originally supportive of the government, seeing anything to be better than Mubarak or the military. It's good to see, however belatedly, that they're recognizing the nature of the new government.
So what's important for Egypt? Prosecuting a comedian. The New York Times reports Diplomatic Incident Arises Over Egyptian Comedian:

The comedian, Bassem Youssef, is being investigated by Egyptian prosecutors for statements he made on his popular television program, in which he was accused of insulting President Mohamed Morsi, denigrating Islam and disturbing public peace. On Sunday, prosecutors questioned him for hours, releasing him after he posted bail.
Human rights advocates and critics of Mr. Morsi’s framed the investigation as a part of a wider crackdown on free expression, and questioned why, given the long list of Egypt’s post-uprising crises, the government was wasting resources investigating comedy skits. Mr. Morsi has said the public prosecutor, whom he appointed, was acting independently after citizens complained about Mr. Youssef’s show.
On Monday, Victoria Nuland, the State Department spokeswoman, called the arrest warrant served on Mr. Youssef and other activists “evidence of a disturbing trend of growing restrictions on freedom of expression.”

Jon Stewart, mentioned later in the article - for comments made here - ties things better than I could hope to.

2) What deaths are worth acknowledging Recently the New York Times ran an obituary of Mariam Farhat, known as "mother of martyrs." The obituary, written in plain, antiseptic English tells of Farhat's greatest accomplishments:

Ms. Farhat was elected to the Palestinian Legislative Council in 2006. Four years earlier, her 17-year-old son, Mohammad, was shot to death after he stormed an Israeli settlement with an automatic rifle and explosives, killing five students. Shortly before the attack, Ms. Farhat made a video in which she appeared with Mohammad to show support for what he was about to do.
“I wish I had 100 boys like Mohammad,” she once said. “I’d sacrifice them for the sake of God.”
Two more of Ms. Farhat’s sons, Nidal and Rawad, were later killed in clashes with Israel.

Is this why she was deemed worthy of an obituary? Her distinction is promoting death and violence. Lacking in this obituary in any sense of moral outrage or judgment about this woman's views and actions.
The outrage is compounded by a death that the New York Times failed to acknowledge. In response to the New York Times Magazine article that called for a third "intifada," Frimet Roth wrote a letter to the New York Times correcting the impression the article made about the non-violent nature of the town that was the article's focus. Mrs. Roth wrote (h/t Daled Amos):

Ahlam Tamimi, the villager whom Ehrenreich described as a woman who "escorted a suicide bomber", is in fact the self-confessed engineer and planner of a bloody terrorist attack. By her own account and after several scouting forays, Tamimi selected a target: the Sbarro restaurant in the heart of Jerusalem, on a hot August afternoon in 2001.
Tamimi has said she chose it because she knew it would be teeming at the appointed hour with women and children. She transported the bomb, enhanced with nails and bolts to maximize the carnage, from Ramallah across the Qalandia security checkpoint and into Israel’s capital. Israeli soldiers still waved females through without inspection in those days.
Tamimi and her weapon, the bomber, both dressed in Western garb and chatting in English to appear as tourists, strolled through the city center. At the entrance to Sbarro, she briefed him on where and when to detonate, instructing that he wait 15 minutes to allow her a safe getaway. Fifteen men, women and children were murdered that afternoon. My teenage daughter Malki was among them. Ehrenreich, who writes warmly about Nabi Saleh’s children, displays a cold detachment when relating to the bombing’s victims, the youngest of whom was two years old: “Fifteen people were killed, eight of them minors.”

Apparently a priority of the New York Times is to celebrate the life of a remorselessly evil woman. Correcting a portrayal of a conscienceless terrorist is not so important.

3) Miftah responds After smearing Elder of Ziyon, the Palestinian NGO, Miftah, finally, sort of, apologized. Elder of Ziyon writes:

Indeed, Miftah has previously happily published the modern equivalents of the blood libel, parroting false claims that Israeli Jews targeted and stole organs from Palestinian Arabs, Ukrainians and Haitians. And Miftah itself ridiculed the idea that such accusations are in any way anti-semitic.
In other words, this apology rings hollow. But it was necessary, not because Miftah cares about doing the right thing, but because it was clearly under pressure from its donors to do something so as not to embarrass them.

There's on Miftah from The Algemeiner, Powerline, Free Beacon and memeorandum.
Thus far neither New York Times nor Washington Post have bothered to cover this story.
CNN which often has Miftah founder Hanan Ashrawi on as a guest, also hasn't covered the story.

This is from Miftah's apology:

It has become clear to us after investigating this incident that the article was accidentally and incorrectly published by a junior staff member. The said staffer has been reprimanded and all our staff has been informed as to the disgusting and repulsive phenomena of blood libel or accusation, including its use against Jews. Dr. Hanan Ashrawi, as founder, has nothing to do with the day to day management at MIFTAH and was no way involved in this incident.

The game here is to protect the "moderate" reputation of Ashrawi. After denying any wrongdoing, blaming a "junior staffer" is might convenient. The problem is that despite here carefully cultivated image - aided and abetted by international news organizations - Ashrawi is hardly moderate.

In an e-mail, Barry Rubin pointed out to me that she had opposed changing the Palestinian charter in 1996. Later that year, in a column, Charles Krauthammer wrote:

Two years later, upon signing the implementation accords (Oslo II) with Shimon Peres, he promised he was really going to do it this time. He didn't.
Things were getting embarrassing. With the Israeli elections approaching last May and Shimon Peres needing to show that he was not being taken for a fool, Arafat called a meeting of the Palestine National Council to change the charter. Despite what you might have read in the press, it still didn't.
What the PNC did was vote to establish a committee that would report back in six months with changes to the charter. (Hanan Ashrawi, America's favorite Palestinian "moderate," voted against even this farcically modest step. Has anyone in the fawning American media ever asked her about this vote?) That was April 24. It's been two months now since the deadline passed, and not a word has been heard about this committee.

Here a "junior staffer" has taken the fall and Ashrawi has been distanced from the incident, helping to maintain the illusion of her moderation. Of course the main reason Miftah receives thousands of dollars in international funding is because of its association with Ashrawi.

But then Miftah itself isn't moderate and its apology is transparent buck passing. If Miftah was really concerned about blood libels it would be busy fighting those libels that appear regularly in the Palestinian media.

Elder of Ziyon has provided an important service. If nothing else he forced Miftah to worry about its ill gotten largesse.

Labels: Egyptian democracy, Egyptian economy, Hanan Ashrawi, Middle East Media Sampler, New York Times, Palestinian mothers, Soccer Dad

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 3:55 PM 0 comments

Kerry 'greeted' by protests in Egypt

US Secretary of State John FN Kerry visited Egypt on Saturday, where he was 'greeted' with violent protests.

Kerry arrived in Egypt on his first visit to the Arab world since taking office for talks with the leaders of a country mired in political and economic crisis two years after the overthrow of autocrat Hosni Mubarak.

With Egypt's pound and foreign currency reserves sliding, the official said that if Cairo could agree on a $4.8 billion loan from the IMF, this would bring in other funds from the United States, European Union and Arab countries.

However, the official said the United States believed Egypt needed to increase tax revenues and reduce energy subsidies - measures likely to be highly unpopular if the Muslim Brotherhood government of President Mohamed Morsi forced them through.

"His basic message is it's very important to the new Egypt for there to be a firm economic foundation," the official told reporters as Kerry flew to Cairo.

"In order for there to be agreement on doing the kinds of economic reforms that would be required under an IMF deal there has to be a basic political ... agreement among all of the various players in Egypt," the official said on condition of anonymity.

Read the whole thing. It doesn't sound like the loan is going to happen anytime soon unless the IMF agrees to make it a grant.

I almost forgot to mention this part:

A small group of anti-Morsi demonstrators marched from Cairo's Tahrir Square, the center of the 2011 uprising, to the foreign ministry to protest about Kerry's visit.

Some held up cartoons of Kerry, portraying him with an Islamic beard, saying "Kerry - member of the Brotherhood". Others banners said "Kerry, you are not welcome here" and showed the characteristic mustache and fringe of Adolf Hitler superimposed on pictures of Morsi.

The protest at the ministry, where Kerry is due to meet Foreign Minister Mohamed Kamel Amr later, was peaceful.

However, youths fought interior ministry police on Saturday in the Nile Delta city of Mansoura, where one protester was killed and dozens injured. In the Suez Canal city of Port Said, protesters torched a police station, security sources said.

While these protests were unrelated to Kerry's visit, they were examples of the frequent outbreaks of unrest faced by Egypt's government.

Clashes are commonplace, with protesters demanding that Morsi reform the interior ministry's police force. Police reform was a key demand of the uprising that toppled Mubarak.

What could go wrong?

Labels: Egypt, Egyptian economy, John Kerry

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:19 PM 1 comments

Tom Friedman gets one right

Barack Hussein Obama has messed up so badly in Egypt that even his New York Times cheerleader, Tom Friedman, realizes that something is wrong.

Egypt is in dire economic condition. Youth unemployment is rampant, everything is in decay, tourism and foreign investment and reserves are down sharply. As a result, Egypt needs an I.M.F. bailout. Any bailout, though, will involve economic pain — including cuts in food and fuel subsidies to shrink Egypt’s steadily widening budget deficit. This will hurt.

In order to get Egyptians to sign on to that pain, a big majority needs to feel invested in the government and its success. And that is not the case today. Morsi desperately needs a national unity government, made up of a broad cross-section of Egyptian parties, but, so far, the Muslim Brotherhood has failed to reach any understanding with the National Salvation Front, the opposition coalition.

Egypt also desperately needs foreign investment to create jobs. There are billions of dollars of Egyptian capital sitting outside the country today, because Egyptian investors, particularly Christians, are fearful of having money confiscated or themselves arrested on specious charges, as happened to some after President Hosni Mubarak’s fall. One of the best things Morsi could do for himself and for Egypt would be to announce an amnesty of everyone from the Mubarak era who does not have blood on his hands or can be proved in short order to have stolen government money. Egypt needs every ounce of its own talent and capital it can mobilize back home. This is no time for revenge.

The Brotherhood, though, doesn’t just need a new governing strategy. It needs to understand that its version of political Islam — which is resistant to women’s empowerment and religious and political pluralism — might be sustainable if you are Iran or Saudi Arabia, and you have huge reserves of oil and gas to buy off all the contradictions between your ideology and economic growth. But if you are Egypt and basically your only natural resource is your people — men and women — you need to be as open to the world and modernity as possible to unleash all of their potential for growth.

Bottom line: Either the Muslim Brotherhood changes or it fails — and the sooner it realizes that the better. I understand why President Obama’s team prefers to convey this message privately: so the political forces in Egypt don’t start focusing on us instead of on each other. That’s wise. But I don’t think we are conveying this message forcefully enough. And Egyptian democracy advocates certainly don’t. In an open letter to President Obama last week in Al-Ahram Weekly, the Egyptian human rights activist Bahieddin Hassan wrote Obama that the muted “stances of your administration have given political cover to the current authoritarian regime in Egypt and allowed it to fearlessly implement undemocratic policies and commit numerous acts of repression.”

Hmmm. Where have I heard that before?

But Jonathan Tobin argues, correctly, that Friedman does not go far enough.

Yet as right as Friedman is about the current situation, his advice about the Brotherhood having to change or fail misses the point about a movement that has no intention of ever allowing power to slip from its hands. Friedman is right that the Brotherhood’s version of political Islam will sink Egypt into poverty. The problem is that they are no more willing or capable of becoming more democratic or open-minded about non-Islamist culture than they are of ever accepting peace with Israel.

Friedman praises what he claims is an Obama administration decision to convey their concerns about the direction of Egypt privately rather than publicly. He also supports an apparent decision to invite Morsi to Washington for a visit where he can try to charm the U.S. into keeping the flow of American taxpayer dollars into his government’s coffers.

But the more time the U.S. takes in conveying the message that it will not back an Egyptian government intent on an Islamist kulturkampf, the less chance there will be that it can influence events in Cairo. We already know what a bad bet Obama has made in backing Morsi and the Brotherhood. It may already be too late to reverse the damage that was done by the president’s feckless embrace of the Islamists. If, as Friedman acknowledges, the direction the Brotherhood is taking Egypt, and by extension the region, is one that can lead to chaos, tyranny and violence, an American decision to cut Morsi off can’t come too soon.

Yes, but there is no sign that a decision by President Obama to cut Morsi off is anywhere in the offing. I would not expect that to happen.

What could go wrong?

Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Egypt, Egyptian economy, Mohammed Morsy, Muslim Brotherhood, Tom Friedman, US foreign aid

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 10:18 AM 0 comments

Israel close to finalizing rail alternative to Suez Canal

As an alternative to the violence-plauged Suez Canal, Israel is on the verge of finalizing a rail route (Hat Tip: Ricky G).

Israel is close to finalising the route of a rail alternative to the Suez Canal as instability in Egypt has added to the urgency of a project to connect the Mediterranean with the Red Sea.

Last month 40 people were killed in protests in the three big Egyptian cities lining the canal, and some shipping groups had to suspend work for several days. President Morsi has warned of a “collapse of the State” if protests continue. Fees for using the canal are Egypt’s only reliable source of foreign currency, bringing in about $5 billion (£3.22 billion) of revenue a year.

Israeli officials have publicly denied suggestions that the plan threatens Egypt’s monopoly of one of the world’s most important trade routes. But privately they admitted that they were being asked to plan for the “day after” a closure of the canal.

“There are a number of scenarios that we need to prepare for, including the peace treaty between Israel and Egypt being challenged, or groups attempting to seize control of Suez in one of the ongoing protests there,” one senior Israeli official involved in the project said. “Israel, and the rest of the world, can’t sit around and wait for the day to come where we can’t transport goods between Asia and Europe. We have to create other channels.”

The project, funded by the Chinese Government, would include the construction of a port on the Red Sea coast near the Israeli city of Eilat, and a double-track railway line capable of carrying heavy cargo to the Israeli port of Ashdod on the Mediterranean coast.

Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister, has declared it a “national priority” as it would transform Israel into a major player in global shipping. Building on the project, expected to take a decade, could begin this year.

Shipping companies said that Egypt’s military has maintained a strong presence around the canal to ensure that trade is not affected by the protests.

However, Gil Miller, managing director in Israel for the shipping group Maersk Line, said that while neither Maersk nor its big competitors wanted to find an alternative to Suez, recent events had forced them to consider “contingency plans”.

“The few days of disruptions ... were concerning, but manageable. We have, however, prepared other options for our company that can be activated in a short time and we are looking at the route being built in Israel,” Mr Miller said.

Israeli media have estimated that construction of the rail line alone would cost $2 billion, and the enlargement of the ports near Eilat and Ashdod could cost billions more.

An Israeli diplomat said that there was a great deal of interest in the project in China and India, as well as other countries in the region that he could not name due to “sensitivity”.

This week Israel’s Government heard final plans for the route through Israel, which environmentalists claim would cause irreparable damage and be a source of pollution. Israeli officials said that they would hear objections to the route before approving the plans.

Eran Feitelson, a transport expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, wrote in Haaretz newspaper: “For Egypt, the Suez Canal is an essential artery for economic survival; we are trying to create a threat to this artery.”

So is their problem environmental impact (we're talking about a rail line, not a highway!) or is their problem the financial impact on Egypt (in which case the answer is that we are not required to let Egypt maintain a stranglehold on us, and if we are able to make money while escaping it, all the better).

Labels: Ashdod, Ashdod port, Egypt, Egyptian economy, Egyptian-Israeli border, Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, Eilat, Suez Canal

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 1:47 PM 2 comments

It's come to this: Egypt tells its people to eat less

No, Michelle Obama hasn't put the people of Egypt on a diet. The Egyptian government has. And the diet has nothing to do with Egyptians losing weight. It has to do with Egypt's government going broke.

“Even Islamists have to eat,” I wrote under the headline “Food and Failed Arab States” in February 2011. Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood government takes a different view, the Washington Post reported yesterday. The trouble, the government says, is that Egyptians are eating too much. In a separate report, the government proposed to cut back its bread subsidy to three hand-sized loaves of pita bread per person per day, about 400 calories’ worth. A state that can’t feed its people is a failed state, and that’s why the Egyptian state is at the brink of collapse, as Egypt’s defense minister warned last week.

According to the Post report, the government is telling Egyptians (almost half of whom live on less than $2 a day) to eat less. You can’t make this sort of thing up. Egypt lost another $1.4 billion in foreign exchange reserves in January, and probably is flat broke after figuring in arrears to oil and food suppliers, and it imports half its food, so something had to give. In response, Egypt’s Islamist government is emulating North Korea’s approach to food shortages:

Egypt’s government is recommending that Egyptians avoid overeating in order to cope with rising food prices and chronic household shortages, according to local media reports.

“The government has acknowledged across-the-board food price inflation on a range of commodities in a new report. … In the report, the government also advises citizens not to over-eat,” Egyptian journalist Issandr el Amrani writes in the Cairo-based Arabist blog, citing local media.

According to our translation, the story from Elwatan News says: “The report also gave dietary instructions to citizens, including…that it’s up to the individual to learn what to eat and why malnutrition can develop from a lack of food or overeating, and why a balanced diet is commensurate with the real needs of people, depending on their age, weight, and level of physical activity.”
 
...

The economic struggles mean most Egyptian households don’t have enough money to buy clothing, food and shelter, according to a fall 2012 survey by the Egyptian Food Observatory. As the site Rebel Economy reported:
“Of the 1680 households surveyed in September 2012, 86 percent said their income was insufficient for covering total monthly needs including for food, clothes and shelter, up from 74 percent in June 2012.”
To cope, Egyptians are reportedly buying cheaper food items, reducing their food intake and buying food on credit.

...

The numbers simply don’t add up. To maintain its present, minimal consumption levels Egypt will require at least $22 billion in aid in 2013 (Bloomberg News’ estimate). In a recent essay for JINSA (“Failure IS an Option in Egypt“) I crunch the numbers, and show that they don’t add up. Nonetheless, the International Monetary Fund’s analysts go through the motions of instructing the Egyptians on the need to reduce the budget deficit, now at 15% of GDP, which means reducing food and fuel subsidies, which keep alive the more than 40% of Egyptians who are unemployment and underemployed.

We are watching something unique and terrible in modern history, namely the disintegration of a society of 80 million people, with the prospect of real hunger–a self-made famine brought about by social and political disaster rather than crop failure or war. It is horrific and dangerous. Those (like the Council on Foreign Relations’ Steven Cook) who maliciously accuse me of wanting Egypt to fail might as well accuse oncologists of wanting their patients to die of cancer. No-one proposes to cough up $20 to $30 billion a year to bail out Egypt — the taxpayers have enough troubles of their own. Instead, the establishment goes through the motions of prescribing macroeconomic measures to the Egyptian government which imply starvation at the micro level — and wonders why all the parties in Egyptian politics won’t play together nicely.

 I know: Let them eat F-16's.

Labels: Egyptian economy, F-16

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 5:45 PM 1 comments

That sound you just heard was the Egyptian economy going down the toilet

The International Monetary Fund has 'delayed' a $4.8 billion loan to Egypt due to the refusal of Islamist President Mohammed Morsy to raise taxes (Hat Tip: MFS - The Other News). The 'delay' has put Egypt's economy of the edge of an abyss.

Egypt’s Prime Minister Hesham Qandil defended President Mohammed Mursi’s recent decision not to increase taxes and called for a “social dialogue” on the tax measures.

The IMF board was scheduled to meet to discuss approving the loan on Dec. 19 after a preliminary agreement was reached during a visit by an IMF team to Cairo last month. The IMF had said Egypt must keep policy steady for the loan to go through.

"In light of the unfolding developments on the ground, the Egyptian authorities have asked to postpone their request for a Stand-By Arrangement with the IMF," a Fund spokeswoman told Reuters in a statement.

"The Fund remains in close contact with the authorities, and stands ready to continue supporting Egypt during the ongoing transition and to consult with the authorities on the resumption of discussions regarding the Stand-By Arrangement," the spokeswoman said.

"He said the delay would give officials time to explain an economic reform package after media criticism prompted the government to postpone measures that were part of the program.

In a televised speech on Tuesday, Prime Minister Qandil, who criticized the media’s “erroneous” reporting over Mursi’s tax scrap said a “social dialogue” meeting will take place next week to explain the government’s tax project.

Read the whole thing. 

Last week, Spengler's David Goldman wrote:

Morsi demanded dictatorial powers last week in large part because the exigencies of Egypt’s economic position–a $36 billion trade deficit, equivalent to an astonishing 16% of GDP, and a budget deficit of 11% of GDP–required cuts in subsidies for necessities, which take up nearly half of the country’s budget. A $4.8 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund was supposed to give Egypt breathing room until the Morsi government could persuade private investors t meet the gap, presuming that Morsi could get the gigantic deficits under control. It appears that Morsi’s attempt to gain the political leverage needed to address the deficits has blown up in his face, and prompted capital flight. The country’s stock market has fallen by 25% since mid-September. That is a less than perfect indicator, given that the market capitalization of the whole Egyptian stock exchange index is less than that of Starbucks.

If Morsi succeeds in crushing the opposition, Egypt is likely to become a sort of North Korea on the Nile in which a totalitarian one-party state rations a dwindling supply of food. A more likely outcome is a prolonged period of instability with spreading hunger.
What should the United States do?

• First, we should recognize that there are some disasters beyond our capacity to fix. Egypt is the victim of sixty years of mismanagement and corruption.
• Second, we should not throw good money after bad. American taxpayers are under no obligation to pour money down the drain.
• Third, we should actively support the secular opposition led by Mohamed al-Baradei. I do not believe that al-Baradei could govern Egypt more effectively than Morsi, but anything–including prolonged chaos–is better than the consolidation of a totalitarian state under the Muslim Brotherhood.

And finally, we should severely reduce military aid to a country whose political leadership cannot be expected to act responsibility in a crisis.

But instead, the Obama administration has decided to give Morsi 20 more F-16's. Am I missing something behind this stroke of brilliance? Maybe parts of them are edible? What could go wrong?

Read the whole thing.

Labels: Egyptian economy, International Monetary Fund, Mohammed Morsy, Muslim Brotherhood

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 1:25 PM 0 comments

Egypt is falling apart so Obama is giving them more F-16's

Egyptians are rioting because they have realized that Mohammed Morsy is no less a dictator than Hosni Mubarak. Egypt's economy is on the verge of total collapse. Egypt is continually issuing threats to abrogate its treaty with Israel. And the US economy is teetering on the edge. So what does the Hussein Obama administration do? It gives the Egyptians another 20 F-16 fighter jets at US taxpayer expense of course (Hat Tip: Shy Guy via Jihad Watch).

The first four jets are to be delivered to Egypt beginning Jan. 22, a source at the naval air base in Fort Worth, where the planes have been undergoing testing, told FoxNews.com. The North African nation already has a fleet of more than 200 of the planes and the latest shipment merely fulfills an order placed two years ago. But given the uncertainty in Cairo, some critics wonder if it is wise to be sending more top gun planes.

Labels: Egypt, Egyptian economy, Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, Mohammed Morsy, Muslim Brotherhood, US foreign aid

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 9:44 AM 0 comments

Egypt's black hole

David Goldman has an update about the Egyptian economy. Things are getting worse.

Last June, the government claimed to have 4.7 million tonnes of wheat, or six months’ supply. It appears that Egypt has been running on reserves and failing to replenish stockpiles, mainly because the country remains desperately short of foreign exchange. A chronic shortage of diesel fuel and electricity, as well as shortages of vaccines for children, has plagued the Egyptian economy for the past year. The butane cylinders with which most Egyptians cook are in short supply, and the black market price has risen to ten times the subsidized official price. Egypt is billions of dollars in arrears to suppliers of diesel, butane, foodstuffs and other essential imports.
The fuel shortage has worsened the food shortage, because farmers can’t obtain enough diesel to run irrigation pumps and agricultural equipment, al-Arabiya reported last October 8. The extent of the damage to this year’s harvest is hard to estimate but seems substantial, according to the newspaper.

The latest central bank data for foreign exchange reserves suggest that Egypt is running on fumes. The country’s trade deficit has risen to about $3 billion a month, and its foreign exchange earnings from tourism, the Suez canal and workers’ remittances amount to $1 to $1.5 billion a month, leaving a monthly hole of $1 to $1.5 billion. Cash reserves were at $7.7 billion in October, the central bank reported this week, essentially unchanged from $7.63 billion in September, after $1 billion in new loans from Qatar and Turkey, Reuters reported:

Egypt in October received $500 million from Qatar and another $500 million from Turkey, state-run al-Gomhuria newspaper said on Monday quoting an unnamed central bank official.

It was the second such payment from Qatar, which has promised to deposit a total $2 billion with Egypt’s central bank by the end of the year.
Egypt drew $600 million from reserves during the month to pay for petroleum imports and $100 million to repay foreign loans, the newspaper quoted the official as saying.

The $1 billion of loans in October evidently failed to cover Egypt’s import needs; although liquid reserves remained stable (at barely two months’ coverage of the trade deficit) the country continued to burn through stockpiles of wheat, and failed to import enough diesel and butane to run the economy. Turkey is running a current account deficit of between 8% and 10% of GDP and still owes money to the IMF, while Qatar’s total foreign exchange reserves of $20 billion are barely sufficient to fund Egypt for a year. Saudi Arabia refuses to lend money to the Muslim Brotherhood regime in Cairo because the Muslim Brotherhood wants to overthrow the Arab monarchies of the Sunni world. The Obama administration proposed $1 billion in emergency US aid (a lot less in terms of actual folding money) but it seems unlikely that the Republican-controlled House of Representatives will approve even this pittance.

And you wonder why the US State Department wants to ignore the Middle East and focus on Asia?

Labels: Egyptian economy

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:32 PM 0 comments

US to forgive $1 billion in Egyptian debt

The United States will forgive $1 billion in Egyptian debt as part of a package that includes a $4.8 billion International Monetary Fund loan to the newly installed Islamist regime.

Nearly 16 months after first pledging to help Egypt’s failing economy, the Obama administration is nearing an agreement with the country’s new government to relieve $1 billion of its debt as part of an American and international assistance package intended to bolster its transition to democracy, administration officials said.

The administration’s efforts, delayed by Egypt’s political turmoil and by wariness in Washington about new leaders emerging from its first free elections, gained new urgency in recent weeks, even as the United States risks losing influence and investment opportunities to countries like China, which President Mohamed Morsi chose for his first official visit outside of the Middle East.

In addition to the debt assistance, the administration has thrown its support behind a $4.8 billion loan being negotiated between Egypt and the International Monetary Fund. Last week it dispatched the first of two official delegations to work out details of the proposed debt assistance, as well as $375 million in financing and loan guarantees for American financiers who invest in Egypt and a $60 million investment fund for Egyptian businesses.

The assistance underscores the importance of shoring up Egypt at a time of turmoil and change across the Middle East, from the relatively peaceful uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia to the still-unfinished transition in Libya, and from the showdown over Iran’s nuclear program to the war in Syria. Given Egypt’s influence in the Arab world, the officials said, its economic recovery and political stability could have a profound influence on other nations in transition and ease wariness in Israel about the tumultuous political changes under way.

There's just one small catch.... Congress has put some restrictions in place on aid to Egypt.

The administration is negotiating whether to waive some debt payments altogether or allow “debt swaps,” in which the money that would otherwise pay down the American debt instead is spent on training and infrastructure projects in Egypt intended to attract private investment and create jobs. Congress has attached conditions to American assistance in Egypt, requiring Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton to certify, among other things, that the country continues to abide by its treaty with Israel.

American and Israeli officials, including Ambassador Michael Oren, have sought to assure members of Congress that assistance should proceed, despite reservations about the Muslim Brotherhood’s political rise, the officials said.

They have argued that persistently high unemployment, especially among women and young people, could undermine Mr. Morsi’s government, causing further instability in Egypt and beyond. “Things are going to head in the wrong direction if you don’t find a way to create jobs,” another administration official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the administration’s internal strategy.

I wonder whether Egypt's liberal democracy advocates agree with that assessment. Hmmm.

Labels: Egyptian democracy, Egyptian economy, Mohammed Morsy, Muslim Brotherhood, US foreign aid

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 11:21 PM 2 comments

Egyptian Salafi MP says Egypt will honor Camp David accords... but there may be reservations

Here's an Egyptian Salafist MP being interviewed on al-Jazzeera saying that his country will honor the Camp David accords... but there may be reservations. That last phrase is the part that you never hear when these kinds of statements are reported in the media, but it's in this video in black and white.

Moreover, at the end he hints at why Egypt will honor the accords: 'Because we must rebuild our country.' The Egyptian economy is in the toilet, and they cannot afford to risk the $2 billion in annual US aid that they could lose if they cancel the Camp David accords. But if they ever manage to strengthen economically so that they feel that they can get along without that money, watch out.

Let's go to the videotape.

Labels: Egyptian economy, Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, Salafists, US foreign aid

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 12:27 PM 0 comments

Actions don't have consequences

I know. You guys all grew up believing - as I did - that actions have consequences. It's what my parents taught me and it's a lesson that I have carried throughout life. But to every rule, there is an exception. So here's an exception: Actions don't have consequences when you're a non-Westerner and you defy the Obama administration.

Egypt is holding Sam Lahood, the son of US Transportation Secretary Ray Lahood, in jail, along with 15 other Americans, for promoting democracy, and has dared the United States to cut their aid. What does Obama do? He agrees to give them the same $1.55 billion that they got last year.

The 'Palestinians' refuse to even come to the table to talk to Israel, and instead negotiate a reconciliation agreement with the Hamas terror organization, and they get their budget cut from $545 million to $440 million - admittedly a real cut to a budget with little or no accountability - but then that cut is explained away as being due to changed circumstances and one-time items.

Egypt, which has arrested several US citizens who work for NGOs promoting democracy, is slated to receive $1.3 billion for military assistance under the plan and $250 million for economic assistance, as was also approved for 2012.

“Our goal is to provide the necessary funds. It’s obviously clear to all of us that we have issues we need to work through, and we’re working very aggressively to do so,” said Deputy Secretary of State Tom Nides after the budget plan was released. “But this budget reflects our commitment and our desire to fully fund this initiative.”

He said the administration would be consulting with Congress, several members of which have said the detentions could cause the US to withhold money from Cairo.

The Palestinians will see a slight roll back in economic aid from $395m. in 2012 to $370m. in 2013 as well as cut back in police training from $150m. to $70m.

An administration official explained the first reduction as stemming from an improved economic situation in the Palestinian territories and the second as due to the curtailment of US provision of equipment for police officers as those supplies have already been delivered.

He said when it comes to the role of Hamas, a US-designated terrorist organization, and its role in the Palestinian government, the administration would revisit the issue in 2013 when the money was actually due to be allocated.

In other words, Obama is now going to lead from behind domestically as well, and make Congress be the fall guy for the real cuts or suspension in aid that needs to take place in order for the Egyptians and the 'Palestinian Authority' to get the message that enough is enough.

What could go wrong?

There's a separate issue with Israel with which I will deal in a separate post.

Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Egyptian economy, Hamas-Fatah reconciliation

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:11 AM 0 comments

Why Egypt might start a war with Israel and what can be done to stop it

Evelyn Gordon worries that Egypt may seek to distract its population from its economic woes by making war with Israel, thinking that it has nothing to lose because the West will demand that Israel return any territory that Egypt loses anyway.

The revolution left Egypt an economic basket case. Tourism, the country's second-largest revenue source, was down 35 percent in the first nine months of last year, while third-quarter unemployment stood at 12 percent, up from 9 percent a year earlier. Foreign exchange reserves plunged 50 percent in 2011 - a disaster for a country that imports half its food - and last month, a government bond issue flopped, with investors buying less than a third despite yields of almost 16 percent. The chances that Egypt's new government can produce the economic miracle needed to reverse this decline seem slim, and if it doesn't, demonstrators are likely to return to Tahrir Square to demand its ouster, just as they did with Hosni Mubarak.

Hence Egypt's new rulers may soon find themselves in desperate need of something to distract the public from its economic distress. And in a country where 90% of the population views Israel as an "enemy" and a "threat," they might well see war with Israel as the ideal distraction.

This makes it vital for Western leaders to make it clear that Egypt does have something irreversible to lose by starting another war - namely, that if it loses Sinai to Israel again, the West won't back Egyptian demands for its full return. But there's no way to make such a threat credible while the West is simultaneously demanding that Israel return every inch of land captured in an earlier defensive war: Egypt's leaders will know they just have to wait a few years for the furor to die down, and the West will similarly demand 100 percent restitution for them.

It's therefore high time for Western leaders to send the following message to both Syria and the Palestinians: You went to war, you lost, and you refused to make peace for 45 years; our patience is exhausted. We will no longer back your demands for restoring the status quo ante; aggression and intransigence have a price.

Of course, Evelyn is right. But we all know that there's not a chance in hell that the Obama-led US - let alone the anti-Semitic Europeans - are going to make a statement like that to the Syrians and the 'Palestinians.'

Read it all. What could go wrong?

Labels: Egyptian economy, Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, Palestinian Authority, Syria, UN Security Council Resolution 242

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 4:41 PM 0 comments

Soccer Dad's Middle East Media Sampler

Here's Soccer Dad's Middle East Media Sampler for Wednesday, January 25.

1) Really?

The New York Times has a short item, Lebanon: Former General Sentenced in Spying Case. The former general, Fayez Karam was convicted of giving information to Israel. I've been skeptical of these announced arrests of spies in Lebanon. Two years is an awfully light sentence for an espionage conviction.

2) Fouad Ajami on the Assads

Fouad Ajamai has an essay The Lost Bequest of Hafez Aassad, that concludes with observations about his son, Bashar. (h/t Martin Kramer )

Hafez Assad was visited by personal tragedy in 1994: the death in a car accident of his oldest son, Bassel. He had been grooming him for succession. He never recovered from the grief. In the years left to him, he settled on his son Bashar, the eye doctor, as his successor. He bent the Constitution and the leadership to his will. He died in 2000, and his hapless son, 34 years of age, was anointed as his successor. Syrians hoped for the best, thought that perhaps this gangly youth, with a stint in London behind him, would grant them the freedoms his father had denied them. There was a Damascus Spring in the offing, it was said. The new ruler permitted the importation of Western cigarettes; jazz clubs and art galleries made their appearance. Bashar offered his people an olive branch: he married well, a London-born upper-bourgeois young woman from a Sunni family of Homs, Asma al-Akhras. The young couple presented themselves well. But the Damascus Spring was snuffed out. The civic forums were shut down, dissidents were rounded up and dispatched to prisons. The young inheritor was his father’s son.
A year ago, when the political hurricane known as the Arab Spring hit the region, Bashar al-Assad proclaimed his country’s immunity to the troubles. He was young, the rulers challenged by their people were old, he was anti-American and anti-Israeli, hence the immunity of his regime. He was at one with his people, he said. Then a group of boys in mid-March, in the forlorn southern town of Daraa, went out and scribbled anti-regime graffiti on the walls. They were picked up and tortured. It was as though the custodians of this dictatorship knew that their order hung by a thread. The system rested on fear, and that barrier was crossed. He put his medical training to use. He described the protesters as germs. Four decades of a drab tyranny had not robbed the Syrians of their humor. The Syrian germs require a new doctor, one banner proclaimed. Bashar had squandered his father’s bequest.

The other day, it was reported that Syrian troops killed a general. (h/t Daily Alert)

An intelligence general in Syria called Adel Mustafa was killed by his own men who refused to obey his order to shoot protesting civilians in the Bab Qebli suburb in Hama.

There have been reports of troops being arrested or killed for refusing to fire on civilians. How widespread these incidents are is unclear.

3) Egypt's economic (and political) crisis

The New York Times reports Economic Potholes Add Dangers on Egypt’s New Political Path. One effect is:

"Nobody is getting married after the revolution,” said Amr el-Khodary, 37, who was forced to close his shop that rents cars for wedding parades.
Ibrahim Mohamed, a 26-year-old cab driver with a college degree, is a case in point. A steep decline in fares, he said, has prevented him from saving up the roughly $7,000 for an apartment, furniture, a small wedding and the customary gift of jewelry that he says he needs to marry.
“If it weren’t for the revolution,” he said, “I would have been able to get married.”

Spengler writes about the very bleak larger picture (h/t Israel Matzav):

Egypt faces a disaster of biblical proportions, and the world will do nothing about it. Officially, Egypt's foreign exchange reserves fell by half during 2011, including a $2.4 billion decline during December - from $36 billion to $18 billion, or about four months of imports.
But the situation almost certainly is worse than that. More than $4 billion left the country during December, estimates Royal Bank of Scotland economist Raza Agha, noting that the December drop in reserves was cushioned by a $1 billion loan from the Egyptian army and a $1 billion sale of dollar-denominated treasury bills.
The rush out of the Egyptian pound is so rapid that Egyptian investors refuse to hold debt in their own national currency, even at a 16% yield. After Islamist parties won more three-quarters of the seats in recent parliamentary elections - 47% for the Muslim Brotherhood and 25% for the even more extreme al-Nour Party - the business elite that prospered under military rule is counting the days before exile.

Eric Trager writes in Happy Birthday to Egypt’s Doomed Revolution:

IT IS TEMPTING to believe that things might have turned out differently had Washington worked harder to bolster the young revolutionaries who seemingly exemplified America’s own liberal values when they took to the streets last January. These brave activists, after all, had won America’s hearts to the tune of an 82-percent approval rating at the height of the revolt, and their photogenic faces carried the promise of a more democratic, friendly Egypt.
But the activists were never who we hoped they were. Far from being liberal, their ranks were largely comprised of Nasserists, revolutionary socialists, and Muslim Brotherhood youths—an alliance of convenience for opposing Mubarak and, later, for denouncing the U.S.

4) A reconsidered Diehl

Yesterday, I wrote a critical assessment of Jackson Diehl's Turkey’s government is the new normal in the Middle East. Barry Rubin argues that Diehl's column, though imperfect, was important:

At least one can have a serious dialogue with Diehl, who is actually thinking about the complexities of the issues involved. I simply cannot think of a single other mass media journalist — not one- — who either thinks or writes as he does. That’s pretty devastating.
Moreover, since the columns and airtime of the mass media are basically closed for contrasting views, how can one possibly reach the same audience, especially since part of the mass media’s propaganda mission is to caricature the critics by highlighting the dumbest statements and painting dissent as Islamophobia?
Equally, though, Diehl’s challenge to the critics of the mainstream thinking on the Middle East is also very serious. Unless Republican presidential candidates, conservative thinkers, and those holding alternative views can develop an accurate and sophisticated analysis, they are not going to win this debate or develop a better strategy.

Labels: Bashar al-Assad, Egyptian economy, Egyptian Revolution, Jackson Diehl, Lebanon, Middle East Media Sampler, Soccer Dad, spying, Turkey

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 5:21 PM 0 comments