A house divided
Barry Rubin argues that divisions among Egypt's liberal parties will result in the
Muslim Brotherhood controlling the country after its upcoming elections.
I never thought the Brotherhood will get a majority. My concern is that it will control around 40 percent of the seats, be the largest single bloc, and get most of what it wants in a new constitution. The president will most likely be Amr Moussa, a radical nationalist who opposes Islamism but will probably buy off the Brotherhood, Salafists, and radical left with a militant foreign policy.
(Fun Fact: In my parallel analysis of the Palestinian elections, I predicted the same thing about Hamas, that it would be the largest party and most powerful single bloc. In fact, it won. Perhaps I’m being too cautious over the Brotherhood’s prospects in Egypt, too.)
In such a situation, the idea that the Egyptian government would be friendly to the United States is laughable. At most it would do the bare minimum to keep U.S. aid. The Obama Administration is likely to be easy to please so it can claim a diplomatic success with Egypt.
Of course, I will have plenty of time to revise my analysis as the campaign develops. But the key factor that would soundly defeat the Brotherhood—unity and good organization on the liberal side—just isn’t there. As usual, note that literally none of the points suggested above has appeared in a mass media determined to prove that there’s nothing to worry about.
Read the whole thing.
What could go wrong?
Labels: Amr Moussa, Egyptian democracy, Egyptian regime change, Muslim Brotherhood
Does anyone still believe this?
Arab League President Amr Moussa (left) explains why there is so much
instability in the Middle East:
"The Palestinian issue is at the heart of instability in the Middle East," Moussa said, calling on the United States to move in "the coming weeks and months towards establishing a Palestinian state based on 1967 borders and with East Jerusalem as its capital."
Really? The guy in Tunisia set himself on fire because there's no 'Palestinian state'? Egypt overthrew Hosni Mubarak because there's no 'Palestinian state'? Yemen is trying to overthrow Saleh, Syria is trying to overthrow Assad and Libya is trying to overthrow Gadhafi because there's no 'Palestinian state'? Bahrain tried to overthrow the Emir because there's no 'Palestinian state'?
What a load of bull dung. There's only one person outside the Middle East who's taken in by it: Barack
Hussein Obama.
Labels: Amr Moussa, Arab League, Barack Hussein Obama, fierce moral urgency, Palestinian state RIGHT NOW syndrome
Egypt's next President?
Here are some of the positions advocated by
Amr Moussa, who just might be the next President of Egypt.
According to Trager, Moussa
-- gratuitously sparked outrage by indicating that he would refuse to visit the Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial.
-- opposed re-signing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)—unless Israel signed it first.
-- backed Yasser Arafat’s refusal to compromise on Jerusalem
-- called on the Arab world to support the Palestinian Intifada
-- declared the Palestinians’ “right of return” to Israel a “sacred right”
-- told a group of Egyptian youths that the Camp David Accords had “expired"
-- called for a “no-fly zone” over Gaza
-- seeks to strengthen Arab-Iranian ties
Isn't it amazing that no one seems to be addressing Egypt's internal issues, but instead they are obsessed with what to do about Israel? What could go wrong?
Labels: Amr Moussa, Egyptian regime change
Sometimes you put your wallet away
Tom Friedman 'worries' that with Hosni Mubarak gone, Israel will now have to pay '
retail' for peace with Egypt.
Let’s start with Israel. For the last 30 years, Israel enjoyed peace with Egypt wholesale — by having peace with just one man, Hosni Mubarak. That sale is over. Today, post-Mubarak, to sustain the peace treaty with Egypt in any kind of stable manner, Israel is going to have to pay retail. It is going to have to make peace with 85 million Egyptians. The days in which one phone call by Israel to Mubarak could shut down any crisis in relations are over.
Amr Moussa, the outgoing head of the Arab League and the front-runner in polls to succeed Mubarak as president when Egypt holds elections in November, just made that clear in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. Regarding Israel, Moussa said: “Mubarak had a certain policy. It was his own policy, and I don’t think we have to follow this. We want to be a friend of Israel, but it has to have two parties. It is not on Egypt to be a friend. Israel has to be a friend, too.”
Moussa owes a great deal of his popularity in Egypt to his tough approach to Israel....
The current Israeli government, however, shows little sign of being prepared for peace retail. I can’t say with any certainty that Israel has a Palestinian partner for a secure peace so that Israel can end its occupation of the West Bank. But I can say with 100 percent certainty that Israel has a huge interest in going out of its way to test that possibility. The Arab world is going through a tumultuous transition to a still uncertain destination. Israel needs to do all it can to get out of their story, because it is going to be a wild ride.
Let's set some facts straight. Israel paid retail thirty years ago. It paid retail by giving up the entire Sinai - every last inch - in exchange for a piece of paper issued by Egypt. The Sinai has both military (as a buffer zone) and economic (as a source of energy) significance. In international relations, a deal is supposed to be a deal even if there's a change in government. For the 'civilized' Tom Friedman to be writing articles in the New York Times that imply that Egypt has the 'right' to demand more of Israel than the retail price we already paid in 1979 is nothing short of outrageous. If Anwar Sadat's deal can be canceled because of a change in government in Egypt, why can't Amr Moussa's or anyone else's? And what justification is there for Israel paying more to someone else only to see that deal canceled?
Second, even Tom has difficulty claiming there's a 'Palestinian' partner for peace. But Friedman says Israel has an interest in going out of its way to test that possibility. Well Tom, we did. Most recently in 2000 (Barak at Camp David), in 2001 (Barak at Taba - remember the Clinton parameters Tom?) and in 2008 (the Olmert offer that Abu Bluff wouldn't even answer). What else do you propose that we do, Tom? Give our entire population swimming lessons?
Sorry Tom, but some things aren't worth buying at any price. We're folding up our wallets. And if Egypt attacks us, God forbid, they're going to be in for a nasty surprise. And they won't get the Sinai back again.
Labels: Amr Moussa, Egyptian regime change, Tom Friedman
Amr Moussa: Camp David accords expired
The man who would be President of Egypt says that the
Camp David accords have expired.
The Camp David Accords signed between Egypt and Israel have expired and no longer govern the situation, Arab League secretary-general and potential Egyptian presidential candidate Amr Moussa has said.
Moussa, who participated in the negotiations with Israel in 1978, made the statements during a discussion with Egyptian youth.
He added, "What governs the relationship between the two countries is the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002 and the Egyptian-Israeli treaty."
Source: Al-Masri Al-Yawm, Egypt, April 21, 2011
But I thought that the 'Camp David Accords' were the 'Egyptian-Israeli treaty.'
/Sigh
Labels: Amr Moussa, Egyptian regime change, Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty
Moussa says he would honor Egypt-Israel peace treaty
Arab League chief Amr Moussa, who is a candidate for President of Egypt, says that he
would honor the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty (Hat Tip:
Daily Alert).
Speaking to a few hundred Egyptians packed into a cultural center in the upscale neighborhood of Zamalek, Moussa said he would "listen to the young people of Egypt" and work with them to make Egypt a regional powerhouse.
When asked about Egypt's peace treaty with Israel, he said: "We as Egyptians have a responsibility to lay the foundations for peace."
"We cannot rebuild Egypt ... while adopting an adventurous foreign policy," he said, adding "we would be kidding ourselves" if Egyptians didn't recognize Israel as a state.
However, Moussa said he would possibly reconsider the terms of a controversial gas deal under which Egypt sells Israel 60 billion cubic feet (1.7 billion cubic meters) a year for 15 years.
The deal has drawn criticism at home, with some saying the gas was being sold at below-market rates. Others resent Israel's treatment of Palestinians, and say Egypt should not supply energy to Israel.
But note, as I have pointed out before,
Moussa enjoys wide popularity in Egypt, largely because of his scathing criticism of Israel, a country seen by most Egyptians as an enemy despite the 1979 peace treaty between the two neighbors.
So is Moussa becoming a realist who understands that Israel is here to say? Would he love to get rid of us but also realizes that the cost to Egypt would be too high? Or is this a tactic to mollify the 'international community' in a bid to convince it not to seek another candidate that is more amenable to friendly relations with its neighbor?
Hmmm.
Labels: Amr Moussa, Arab obsession with Israel, Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty
Amr Moussa to run for President of Egypt
Arab League President
Amr Moussa has announced that he is a candidate to be President of Egypt.
While very possibly the best alternative to the Muslim Brotherhood-backed Muhammad ElBaradei, Moussa is a flamboyant demagogue who is sure to try to score points by bashing the United States, the West, and Israel.
Syria, and thus also its ally Iran, would be pleased by his election; the Saudis will be horrified. Israel will do its best to deal with him, knowing he will be a rhetorical headache but hoping his actual behavior will be pragmatic. He will be no great bargain for U.S. interests either.
I don't see any candidate for President of Egypt that will not be anathema to American and Israeli interests. I'd be pleasantly surprised if one emerges.
Difficult times ahead....
Labels: Amr Moussa, Egyptian elections
Moussa would honor Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty?
Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa, who is the leading candidate to become President of Egypt when elections are held, implied in an interview with the Washington Post that he would
honor the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty.
Moussa said it was important that Egypt honor its international agreements and remain a steadfast ally with the United States, as equal partners. "We have major interests with the U.S." and "the U.S. also has major interests with us and the Arab world," he said. "I'm against those that believe the U.S. is an automatic enemy."
"Honor its international agreements" is not quite the same as endorsing the treaty specifically, but 'international agreements' in an Egyptian context ought to include the treaty.
Hmmm.
Labels: Amr Moussa, Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty
West's favorite Egyptian wants to 'rethink' Camp David accord
Ayman Nour, the West's favorite Egyptian, has called for his country to '
rethink' the Camp David accords between Israel and Egypt.
Ayman Nour, a former lawmaker and chairman of the Ghad (Tomorrow) party, told an Egyptian radio station that the 1978 Camp David Accords were no longer relevant, and said the country’s leadership should at least rethink the terms of the framework agreements that led to a peace deal between the erstwhile enemies the following year.
Details of the interview were revealed Sunday evening by Ehud Yaari, Middle Eastern affairs commentator for Channel 2 News.
...
“The Camp David Accords are finished,” Nour said. “Egypt has to at least conduct negotiations over conditions of the agreement.”
However, Egyptian Ambassador to the United States Sameh Shoukry said Sunday that he believed Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel would stand.
“The treaty with Israel... has been beneficial to Egypt over the last 30 years,” Sameh said in an interview with ABC’s Christiane Amanpour. “We have derived a dividend from the treaty. We have been able to establish security and stability in the region, and I believe it is a main element in terms of our foreign policy.”
Nour, 46, was imprisoned in 2005 after running against Mubarak in presidential elections. The opposition leader came in first runner-up with 7 percent of the vote in a ballot widely criticized as rigged – independent observers believe Nour may have actually received twice as many votes. A diabetic, he was released from prison in 2009 on health grounds.
Nour took a leading role in the protests of recent weeks, and on January 28 suffered a head wound when hit by a stone in clashes between pro-Mubarak and antigovernment protesters.
Nour is not an Islamist. This is not the Muslim Brotherhood calling for the treaty to be torn up. But recall that ElBaradei also
refused to reaffirm the treaty in an interview on Meet the Press with David Gregory. And Amr Moussa has called for
war on Israel, and called on Arab countries not to
normalize ties with Israel (which Egypt did - formally at least - as part of the Camp David treaty).
And then there's the Muslim Brotherhood....
And you wonder why Israelis were in no rush to see Mubarak go?
Labels: Amr Moussa, Ayman Nour, Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, Hosni Mubarak, Mohamed ElBaradei, Muslim Brotherhood
ElBaradei not likely to be next Egyptian President
As recently as two weeks ago, he was seen as a likely successor to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, but now Mohamed ElBaradei
isn't even in the ballpark in the polls. ElBaradei may yet become a prominent voice in the post-Mubarak era.
When asked by an Austrian newspaper this month if he would consider leading Egypt, he said: "Naturally I want to play a part in the future, but who stands in the election, that's really not so important at the moment. But if the people want it, of course I would be available."
Right now, despite his eloquent appearances on satellite television, or perhaps because of them, he lacks resonance at home.
"His role as a leader for change in Egypt is over," said Hassan Nafaa, former coordinator for ElBaradei's National Front for Change. "He had the historic opportunity to represent real reforms, but his frequent travels abroad cost him credibility. He didn't seize the moment, and now it's a youth rebellion forcing the change ElBaradei was supposed to bring."
In a presidential straw poll conducted last week by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 3% of Egyptians supported ElBaradei. That's two percentage points better than opposition leader Ayman Nour, but well below the 26% for Amr Moussa, a former Egyptian foreign minister who topped the list. Moussa quit his post as secretary-general of the Arab League on Friday to begin what is widely seen as a campaign for president.
"I don't think ElBaradei was ever convinced deep within himself that he was the man to lead the change," said one opposition leader who spoke on condition of anonymity. "It became a forced marriage between him, the people and the opposition."
Moussa may yet make us long for ElBaradei. His popularity in Egypt is driven by his hostility to the United States and Israel.
What could go wrong?
Labels: Amr Moussa, Hosni Mubarak, Mohamed ElBaradei
Amr Moussa goes off the wall
In an interview published in the Toronto Star, Arab League Director General Amr Moussa goes off the wall. It's not just the usual threats to cut off the 'peace talks' if the 'Palestinians' don't get their way, and to disband the 'Palestinian Authority' (as if he has the power to do so) if the 'peace talks' are stopped. It's the list of Israeli sins that exposes Amr Moussa as the
rank anti-Semite we all knew he is.
Does he really see all the kings just giving up power? Does he see Hosni Mubarak in Egypt giving up his autocratic power?
“If we succeed in solving the Palestinian problem, things will change dramatically towards social and economic development,” Moussa said. “There’ll be less threats of terrorism, less threats of violence, less regional tensions, which will open up the movement of people, more tourism, railways, highways, etc. Once we embark on it, it will happen quickly. That’s why we need peace.”
I said that sounded like an excuse.
“It was an excuse at some time and for some policies. Now it is real because we cannot move. There is a lot of tension, lot of fear that things can erupt at any time. See Lebanon, for example.”
I said that the only thing that really works across the Arab world is the elaborate security apparatus.
“Because of this problem. I sincerely believe that an end to the Arab-Israeli conflict would change the picture in the region drastically. It would introduce a new era and a new regional order.”
You got that? Because there's no 'Palestinian state,' there are autocratic rulers in Arab countries, there's terrorism and violence and there is a lack of railways or highways.
Maybe he should blame us for the weather too?
Labels: Amr Moussa, anti-Semitism, Arab blame game, Arab League, Palestinian Authority
Barry Rubin argues that divisions among Egypt's liberal parties will result in the Muslim Brotherhood controlling the country after its upcoming elections. 
