Israel Matzav

Yair Lapid to be put out to pasture?

When Ariel Sharon wanted to beat down his political rival, Binyamin Netanyahu, he made Netanyahu the finance minister at a time of austerity, thinking that Netanyahu would be destroyed politically by the decrees he would have to issue in order to fix Israel's economy. It didn't work. Netanyahu was brilliant as finance minister, and made himself into Sharon's obvious successor once Ehud Olmert could be pushed aside.

Netanyahu may have had the same thing in mind when he made Yair Lapid the finance minister. Lapid, who could barely contain his aspirations for Netanyahu's job, really wanted to be foreign minister. But Netanyahu forced Lapid to be finance minister. Lapid is a disaster. He is the least popular minister in the entire cabinet, and his budget is so agenda driven as to infuriate just about everyone. Lapid is not knowledgeable about his position, and his handling of the ministry shows it.






Now Lapid may be forced into a Hobson's choice: Leave the coalition and the finance ministry, or watch his poll numbers crash completely. It couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

The poll numbers are becoming bleaker with every week that goes by. He has had to deal with growing criticism, and it seems as though this will only get worse.

He used to say that when the time came to pass a new state budget things would be different. By then everyone will have understood that the previous budget, which dealt a crushing blow to the middle class, was a consequence of the harsh reality and circumstances he had no control over, as well as a budgetary deficit that he had inherited from the previous government.

But as of late he has changed his tune. He has come to terms with the possibility that the next state budget, set to be passed some time next year, might be even worse, that the budget deficit might be even greater, and that he would have no one to share the blame with.

On the flip side, bolting the coalition now would not serve him well. The ultra-Orthodox will replace him and will kill his universal conscription bill and stifle all of his efforts to have civil liberties written into law. He would take heat for this. Last week he tried to elevate himself by issuing a strong statement on the peace process, but he realized that Opposition Leader Isaac Herzog (Labor) had already taken ownership of that turf.

During Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's most recent term, then Labor Chairman Ehud Barak used to tease some of the Labor ministers -- chief among them Herzog and MK Binyamin Ben-Eliezer -- because they kept whining and shedding crocodile tears about how life had treated them unfairly, even as they enjoyed all the perks of being ministers in the Likud-led government: from leather seats in the Knesset plenum to chauffeur-driven cars, large offices and so forth.

Lapid would be well-served by taking a page from Herzog and utilizing his vast experience, but his decision to adopt that whining posture is just mind-boggling. He likes to have it both ways; to be part of the government but to attack it from within. It is highly unlikely that the public will appreciate such behavior. 

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Lapid knows that he would not trigger early elections by leaving the government. Even if Habayit Hayehudi leader Naftali Bennett upholds the alliance with Lapid and bolts with him, the government could survive.

If Lapid leaves now, he would face an embarrassing situation: He would not be able to credibly attack a government he had left two minutes ago. He will have had practically nothing to show for in his ministerial track record, almost zero accomplishments. 

Lapid will likely do everything he can to be finance minister when the time comes to pass a new budget. 

Finance Ministry officials have devised early estimates suggesting that the budget is going to include even more austerity measures than the current one. Lapid is already laying the groundwork for using this as a pretext for his departure, in a year from now. A year is eternity in politics. 

People close to Lapid dismiss the above as speculation. They say Lapid is not on his way out, and that the controversy he has been stirring in the coalition is not a consequence of having no mission; the exact opposite is true, they insist. They say that he has been delivering on his campaign pledges. Nothing else. Lapid, they say, promised to pursue a pro-active stance on civil liberties, and that is what he has been doing. He promised that he would not sit in a government that does not hold peace talks, and he lived up to that pledge. 

His associates don't think there is a rift between Habayit Hayehudi and Yesh Atid. Every week in recent months Lapid could be seen huddling with Bennett near the Knesset plenum. This was still the case this week.

Rumors of the fraying political alliance between Habayit Hayehudi and Yesh Atid were bolstered Thursday, after Habayit Hayehudi Chairman MK Naftali Bennett was quoted as saying that the partnership between the two parties "can't work if [people] are fighting. We have to decide whether we will be forging ahead together or calling it quits."

Habayit Hayehudi and Yesh Atid have been locking horns over several issues, most recently over the former's intention to block a move that would grant same-sex couples the same tax breaks as regular couples.

Speaking at an Eilat conference hosted by Maariv daily on Thursday, Bennett admitted that the political pact struck between Lapid and him prior to January's general elections was a tactical move. "[Lapid] wanted to keep the haredim out of the government and I wanted to be in the government," he said.

No one I know will cry if Lapid leaves the government. He knows what he's against, but he has no idea what he's for.

Labels: Binyamin Netanyahu, Israeli Knesset, Jewish Home party, Likud party, Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, Yesh Atid party

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 2:29 PM