Israel Matzav

Mixed signals

Politico concludes that Israel has plenty to complain about Obama's and Kerry's behavior with respect to the negotiations with Iran.

These are weighty concerns and serious accusations. They deserve a full accounting. It is shameful to suggest that anyone who raises these questions prefers war to diplomacy. That is especially because each of these charges appears to have merit.

One would be hard-pressed, for example, to find a senior administration official saying that securing Iran’s full implementation of U.N. Security Council resolutions remains the goal of these negotiations, let alone an American “red line.” Instead, officials have termed the pursuit of suspension a “maximalist” position and prefer to cite the president’s commitment to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, a far looser formulation that could allow Iran a breakout capacity. Rejecting the Iranians’ claim to a “right to enrich,” as the administration apparently did in Geneva, is important, but it is not the same as demanding that they suspend enrichment.

In terms of the details of the “first step” agreement, administration officials argue that early sanctions relief for Iran will be marginal and limited, and that the core oil and banking sanctions will remain in place until a comprehensive accord is reached. This, however, is a promise that no administration can guarantee since sanctions are only as strong as their weakest link. No one can predict how other countries, some greedy for trade with Iran, will react to the imagery of a “first step” deal, but it is not fanciful to suggest that the sanctions regime may begin to erode once the interim agreement is reached. That underscores the wisdom of demanding the maximum possible concessions in the “first step”—i.e., a stoppage at Arak—and of countering the image of fraying sanctions by giving Iran tangible evidence that they will become tighter and more painful.

As for whether Israel was kept in the dark about Geneva, an inconsistency in Kerry’s comments suggests there is something to it. After all, he and other officials have said that Israeli leaders have been continually and fully briefed and that Israel’s critiques were unwarranted, since the Israelis didn’t know the details of what actually was on the table in the talks. Both statements cannot be true. Moreover, it is patently disingenuous to ask Israel or domestic detractors of a “first step” deal to withhold their criticism until after the agreement is signed, which is the administration’s position, since there would then be zero chance to affect an outcome already reached.

It didn’t help matters that Washington and Jerusalem had a parallel crisis of confidence on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process amid the Iran imbroglio. Kerry—who has justly earned praise for his persistence and creativity in pursuing this Sisyphean diplomacy—inexplicably lost his cool when Israel announced construction approval for 1,900 new apartments in disputed territory, itself a political response to Palestinian jubilation at Israel’s release from prison of 26 hardened terrorists. One doesn’t have to support Israeli settlement policy to note that 90 percent of those apartments are to be built either in existing Jewish neighborhoods within Israel’s capital, or on land on the “Israeli side” of the West Bank security barrier that is likely to end up in Israel’s control in any agreement.

Kerry’s surprisingly ferocious reaction was to lump all construction together and denounce it, publicly question Israel’s commitment to peace, rhetorically ask whether Israel prefers a third intifada and wonder aloud whether Israel will ever get its troops out of the West Bank—troops that have worked with Palestinian security forces to fight terrorism and prevent the spread of Hamas influence. If the Obama administration wanted to raise the blood pressure of even the least paranoid Israelis, the combination of the rush to a deal in Geneva and an attack on Israel’s peacemaking credentials was a sure way to do it.

You're not being paranoid when they really are after you. Israel is not being paranoid.

Read the whole thing.

Labels: Arak heavy water production plant, Binyamin Netanyahu, Iran sanctions regime, Iranian nuclear threat, John Kerry, Judea and Samaria construction, Palestinian terrorists, uranium enrichment

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 2:53 PM