Israel Matzav

What will Asma do? Assad unlikely to attack Israel in response to US strike

The military assessment here in Israel is that in the face of an increasingly likely US attack on Syria, Bashar al-Assad will not turn his guns to Israel.

Any US military step will probably serve as a “slap” to the Syrian regime, but won’t go as far as toppling President Bashar Assad from power.

Hence, it would be an act of self-destruction on Assad’s part to drag Israel into the conflict, for any direct Syrian retribution against Israel would endanger the very existence of the embattled regime in Damascus.

With Assad in control of around 40 percent of Syrian territory, dragging Israel into the Syrian civil war would tip the scales in the rebels favor, and would be an act of madness on the part of the Syrian dictator.

Ultimately, the last thing Assad needs at this juncture is to provoke an Israeli response against him, and so long as he is guided by a self-preservation instinct, it is reasonable to assess that he will not attack Israel after a US strike.

Well, maybe. Unless Assad, egged on by Iran, decides that he can reunify his country by attacking the common enemy of the regime and the rebels: Israel. And it doesn't speak to the question of what Syria's real dictator might decide to tell Bashar to do.

The assessment that Bashar will not attack us may be for domestic consumption to avoid panic in Israel. Gas mask demand has jumped 400% here since Assad attacked his own people with chemical weapons last Wednesday.

Labels: Asma al-Assad, Bashar al-Assad, chemical weapons, Syria, Syrian army

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:59 AM