Israel Matzav

Chavez is dead

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, a friend of both US President Hussein Obama and Iranian President Ahmadinejad has died of cancer. He was 58. Venezuela is apparently going to have new elections.

Chavez's death opens the way for a new election that will test whether his socialist "revolution" can live on without his dominant personality at the helm.

...

The vote should be held within 30 days and will likely pit [Vice President Nicolas] Maduro against Henrique Capriles, the centrist opposition leader and state governor who lost to Chavez in the October election.

One recent opinion poll gave Maduro a strong lead.

Maduro is Chavez's preferred successor, enjoys support among many of the working class and could benefit from an inevitable surge of emotion in the coming days.

But the president's death could also trigger in-fighting in a leftist coalition that ranges from hard-left intellectuals to army officers and businessmen.

Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves and some of the most heavily traded bonds, so investors will be highly sensitive to any signs of political instability.

A defeat for Maduro would bring major changes to Venezuela and could also upend its alliances with Latin American countries that have relied on Chavez's oil-funded largesse - most notably with communist-led Cuba, which recovered from financial ruin in the 1990s thanks largely to Chavez's aid.

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There are clear ideological differences between the 20 or so groups in the opposition's Democratic Unity coalition and without their enmity to Chavez to bind them, the alliance could splinter.

Until recently, polls had shown Capriles would beat any of Chavez's proteges. But the naming of Maduro as Chavez's heir, and the outpouring of emotion that will accompany Chavez's death, have changed the picture.

A survey carried out by local pollster Hinterlaces between Jan. 30 and Feb. 9 gave Maduro 50-percent support, compared to 36 percent for Capriles.

Wall Street investors, who would like to see a more pro-business government in Caracas but have been keen buyers of high-yielding Venezuelan bonds, will be watching closely.

Hmmm. Anything that gets them away from Iran (and Cuba) is good for the Jews....

Labels: Hugo Chavez, Venezuela

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:31 AM