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Thursday, January 17, 2013

Some... different... poll results

In an earlier post, I reported on a poll that claimed that Likud-Beiteinu was weakening, while Tzipi Livni's HaBdicha party was getting stronger. I also warned you about the unreliability of Israeli polls.

How unreliable? Consider that in the poll in the earlier post, Likud-Beiteinu was winning 32 mandates out of 120. Here's a poll in which they are winning 37. And Livni, who won 9 in that other poll, is only winning 5.
The survey was conducted by Maagar - Interdisciplinary Research and Consulting Institute Ltd., managed by Professor Yitzhak Katz. It was commissioned by Israel Radio Reshet Bet for Hakol Diburim and broadcast on 17 January.
Telephone survey of representative sample of 770 adult Israelis (including Arabs)[out of 2,696 who were called on the phone]. The survey was carried out 14-16 January 2013
If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats)
Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
Please note: There are 120 seats in the Knesset. Parties must receive a minimum of 2% of the valid votes cast in the elections to be included in the Knesset - this comes to 2.4 seats. After elections are held the coalition forming a government must receive 61 votes in a vote of confidence in the Knesset.
37 [42] Likud Beiteinu (Likud & Yisrael Beiteinu)
16 [13] Labor
13 [07] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/NRP & National Union)
11 [11] Shas
09 [---] Lapid "Atid" Party
05 [---] Livni party "Hatnua" Party
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah
06 [03] Meretz
03 [---] Otzma Leyisrael (Eldad and Ben Ari)
03 [28] Kadima
01 [---] Am Shalem headed by Rabbi Haim Amsalem *
10 [11] Arab parties
* do not reach the minimum 2% so would not get into the Knesset.
And just to complete the confusion, here's another poll
The survey of 810 Israeli adults (including Israeli Arabs) was conducted by New Wave for Yisrael Hayom 15 January 2013 and published on 17 January.
If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats)
Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
Please note: There are 120 seats in the Knesset. Parties must receive a  minimum of 2% of the valid votes cast in the elections to be included in the Knesset - this comes to 2.4 seats. After elections are held the coalition forming a government must receive 61 votes in a vote of  confidence in the  Knesset.
35 [42] Likud Beiteinu
17 [13] Labor
15 [07] Bayit Yehudi
12 [---] Lapid "Atid" Party
11 [11] Shas
07 [---] Livni party (Hatnua)
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah
05 [03] Meretz
02 [28] Kadima
10 [11] Arab parties
00 [---] Am Shalem headed by Rabbi Haim Amsalem
00 [---] Otzma Leyisrael
Who is most appropriate to be prime minister?
Netanyahu 38.2% Livni 10.3% Shelley Yichimovitz 9.5% Bennett 6.5% Lapid 4.3%
What party is going to get the most votes?
Likud Beiteinu 82.3% Labor 8.5% Don't know 9.2%
Who is most appropriate to be defense minister?
Yaalon 28.2% Barak 27.3% Mofaz 25.0% Don't know 19.5%
Do you think it is possible to reach an agreement with the Palestinians?
Yes 35.1% No 61.9% Don't know 3.0%
And you want to predict this election?

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1 Comments:

At 4:58 PM, Blogger HaDaR said...

This one:
http://www.inn.co.il/News/News.aspx/250164
gives LIkud 32, Jewish Home 17.5, Labor 16...
They can't be rely on.

 

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