Israel Matzav

Middle East chaos makes Iran strike more likely

David Samuels: Right now, the timing for an Israeli strike on Iran — which I thought of up until a few months ago as pure hot air — seems as favorable as it is ever likely to be. The Iranian bloc in Syria and Lebanon is coming apart at the seams. The Syrian Army is in tatters. Hezbollah is in a very weak place. Obama — who Netanyahu seems to see as a strategic enemy on a par with Iran– is at a weak point, the weakest he is likely to be in the next five years, presuming he is re-elected. Morsi isn’t dumb enough to order the Egyptian Army out of their barracks no matter what happens in any back and forth with Hamas in Gaza. Plus, the Gulfies are pushing for a strike, and they own Gaza AND Egypt now.

David Goldman: After the anti-Muslim Brotherhood demonstration at the soldiers’ funeral this week, my prior was that the SCAF was the aggressor against Morsi. It may have been entirely the reverse. Morsi might have set up the Sinai incident and the protests at the funeral were a defensive response by the military (ultimately futile). That raises the questions: What are the Saudis thinking? Are they coordinating with the Qataris? Have they cut a deal with the Muslim Brotherhood? A related question is: Is Iran involved?

So a theme that bears investigation is Iran positioning for a post-Israeli strike response.

Pepe: The Saudis are not coordinating with Qataris at all; they are betting on different horses. Iran is not involved in anything in Egypt so far –apart from dragging Morsi or an underling to talks in Tehran during NAM.

David S.: Don’t you people agree that this feels like a uniquely fluid moment?

Amos Harel: David S, to continue with your line of thought: remember the date of “Cast Lead” — December 27, 2008, which fell in between Obama’s victory and inauguration. But as we were told when we were young IDF soldiers: “Every Saturday has a Saturday night”. Translation: Keep in mind there’s a price to pay later, for actions committed while you felt yourself untouchable (in the army, our commanders are not allowed to punish us during the weekend).

Pepe: I’m getting stuff from Tehran around the fact people care extremely worried about the concentration of power in Khamenei’s hands. He decides EVERYTHING — including the response in case of an attack.

Rotem Sella: It definitely seems that the confidence of Muslim Brothers is increasing, the fear of a coup is even less than it was a few days ago.

David S.: The moment things stabilize, they will stabilize in favor of Iran and against Israel. Right now, the Iranians are in trouble. And any major retaliation risks their remaining assets. Iran is weak, and everything they have from their nuclear program to their allies in the region is at risk right now is a way that may not be true a month from now, or two months from now.

Amos Harel: Keep in mind that everybody speaks of the autumn. Why not earlier? (I’m just theorizing here)

David G.: The threat is low everywhere except Egypt. Granting Pepe’s point that Iran’s direct reach into Egypt is de minimus, Qatar’s intervention to undermine SCAF definitely helps Iran — it removes an obstacle to attacks on Israel.

David S.: But if you imagine that the Salafists or the MB will control Egypt in the medium future, then this is the moment of least threat to Egypt from that direction, unless you imagine SCAF can regain solid control of the country under a new Mubarak.

David G.: David S., I agree with you: Tantawi’s departure is one more grain of sand on the scale on the side of an early strike.

David S.: If the MB is strong enough to cut Tantawi’s head off this morning, then SCAF isn’t going to be running Egypt tomorrow.

Labels: Iranian nuclear threat, Israeli attack on Iran

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 2:27 AM