Israel Matzav

Iran's last chance? Report: War to occur before year's end if P-5+1 talks fail

The Russian online newspaper Kommersant reports that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has sent a warning to Iran, via Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, that the upcoming P-5+1 talks are Iran's last chance to avoid a military strike. This is from a Google translation of the Kommersant article.

Scheduled for April talks with Iran Six of international mediators - the last chance for Tehran to avoid war. According to "Kommersant", please convey this message to the Iranian authorities came to the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Their talks were held Monday in New York immediately after the meeting of the UN Security Council. It also cleared up and the fate of Syria: it is unlikely to threaten intervention, while high threat of war with Iran. Moscow, as it turned out, "b", for this war is already prepared.

Speaking about the probability of drawing Israel and the U.S. attack on Iran, diplomats, including Russian, now instead of an indefinite "if" use specific "when." "The invasion will happen before the end of the year - said" Y "on the eve of the UN Security Council meeting of senior Foreign Ministry. - Israel, in effect, blackmail Obama. Put it in an interesting position: either he would support a war, or he will lose the support (of the influential Jewish lobby. - "b"). "

In other words, Netanyahu told Obama that he will not wait for after the elections to attack Iran, and Obama can either join him or be dragged into a war not on his own terms and have it spoil his reelection. Plausible? Sure. But at the end of the day, it's Obama's decision to join or not to join. The 'Israel Lobby' (how come no one ever talks about the much more powerful Saudi lobby, which has just as great an interest in seeing Iran stopped?) has nothing to do with this. And what the Russians really fear is... Iranian refugees.

However, publicly calling for peace, Russia, as the "Y", just in case Iran is prepared for war. "We have calculated the action in case of war with Iran. In this case there is a mobilization readiness" - assured the "b" Defense Ministry official, insisted on anonymity. The danger he sees is that of Iran's borders with Russia, Azerbaijan, where "not yet come to a time-Karabakh," gush a huge number of refugees. Above all, says the military, fighting in Iran "could complicate the already difficult situation in the Caucasus." "You may have to close any gaps. And this is the real lives of our soldiers," - concluded the official.

The presence of Moscow's action plan in case of Iran will be hit, "Y" confirmed a senior diplomat who participated in its preparation. According to him, the corresponding program is designed for inter-ministerial committee and the protection of Russian citizens. Which of the Russian state officials worked on a document and how it is, an employee of the Foreign Ministry refused to tell. The paper explained the diplomat, who has stamped "top secret".

You think they fear another Chechnia? Maybe.

The article also claims that the US is - at least temporarily - going to weaken the pressure on Syria.

However, in Moscow, a temporary weakening of the pressure on Syria tend to explain another factor. "For the U.S. it is now important to get out of Syrian decent situation - said the source" b "in the Foreign Ministry. - Americans understand that Israel will strike Iran. A two wars in the region - this is too much."

I think it's also a recognition of the fact that for Russia - which has naval bases in Syria - Bashar al-Assad is more important than the Mullahcracy in Iran.

More on this story here.

Yes, on the whole, this story sounds plausible. So why the little boy crying wolf at the top? Because I don't believe Obama is really going to attack Iran. But I do believe that Israel will. Either this story is real, or Netanyahu and Obama agreed that Obama would tell Iran, "I can't control that maniac Netanyahu any more so you'd better stop it or else he will attack you."

What could go wrong?

Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Binyamin Netanyahu, Campaign 2012, Hillary Clinton, Iranian nuclear threat, Israeli attack on Iran, Sergey Lavrov

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 11:49 AM