Israel Matzav

Lost causes

In the wee hours of Friday morning, I reported on a raid conducted by the Egyptian army on the offices of human rights groups in Egypt. If you note the title of that post, I said that the army was going after the very groups that fomented the revolt against Mubarak in the first place. Barry Rubin explains why.

But what does it all mean? Well, there are two ways to answer that question:

1. The military wants to keep control of the country and thus make itself more popular. Thus, the demand of the U.S. government and media that it turn over power faster to civilians is a good idea. This is the media and Obama Administration response.

2. The army knows it is going to turn over power to the new parliament and president at some point between June 2012 and June 2013. The moderate forces have attacked the armed forces and portrayed it as the enemy. Yet the moderates lost the elections and are weak. Ultimately they cannot threaten the army’s privileges.

In contrast, the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists are strong and won the election. They have made deals with the military; they no longer participate in the Tahrir demonstrations; the army has backed down to their demands on virtually every issue. The Islamists are willing to let the army have its economic power and privileges. It doesn’t mind corruption by the generals

And the Islamists also hate Western influence and know that this Western aid is benefitting their moderate rivals.

Consequently, the military is acting in its interests while also helping the Islamists get rid of their mutual—albeit weak—rival and root out Western influence. Not only is this a win-win situation for the Islamists but the army takes the blame! And what is the West’s response? To demand that the civilians—that is, the Islamist victors in parliamentary elections—get power even faster!

In short, the result is a total win for Islamists (rivals get smashed, Western influence weakened; army blamed; power handed over sooner) ; largely a win for the army (since the Obama Administration won’t dare cut off aid); and total defeat for the moderates and the West.

Read the whole thing.

If this sounds familiar, it should. 33 years ago, another revolution in the Middle East was taken over by the Islamists after another bumbling US President didn't back his ally and then didn't know how to handle the aftermath. That country was Iran and the President was Jimmy Carter. One can only wonder if the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists will at least be smart enough to let Obama be reelected before they openly take over Egypt. I hope not. At least it would spare the US a grave mistake in November if the consequences of Obama's dithering are clear.

Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Egyptian Revolution

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 9:40 AM