Israel Matzav

The threat from the Egyptian border

Barry Rubin writes that a Hamas terror threat coming across the Egyptian border is not far away.

Here’s a wonderful example of how this system works in another country. In Lebanon, Hizballah is creating its own secure strategic communications network without any government sanction. In one place, local people attacked workers building Hizballah facilities in their village. The Lebanese communications minister refused to interfere, supporting Hizballah’s actions. He explained that the Lebanese government accepted the project since almost anything was justified since Hizballah was fighting Israel. The opposition publication, NowLebanon, responded that this is “a phone network that will be used by Iran and Syria (let’s not mince words) to carry out its regional ambitions.”

But Lebanon’s government has no interest in restricting any war-making activities on Israel. So what can we expect in Egypt?

What counter-forces are going to make the problems go away? The army does not have to close Hamas facilities to maintain its own interests. Nor does it have to do so to keep U.S. aid. There is nothing that is going to block this from happening unless Hamas makes the huge mistake of interfering in Egyptian politics and becoming involved with those staging armed struggle within Egypt. Hizballah made that mistake a few years ago.

Want to know how Middle East politics really work? A couple of years ago Israel noted that the Egypt-Gaza smuggling level had gone way down. Western media praised Egypt for acting. In fact, what had happened was that Egyptian officers on the border had demanded a higher price in bribes; the smugglers had refused, so the officers had cracked down until they got more money at which point they opened the gates again.

I repeat: to point out the likelihood of such contingencies is of vital importance. The Israeli government is aware of these things and working to deal with them. What kind of planning and thinking for such dangerous situations is going on in the West? Little or none, because they don’t take these things seriously.

I'm not sure how seriously the Israeli government is taking this either. The fence is behind schedule, and who knows whether its budget will remain in place long enough for it to be completed. One of the big items of news yesterday was that the 'social lobby' is pushing for free education for 3-4-year olds so that their mothers can go off to work. The amount they cited as being a typical monthly kindergarten fee for that age was astronomical - I don't know anyone who pays anywhere near that much (they said NIS 3,000-5,000 per month - we paid about NIS 500 per month for our kids). Sounds like another subsidy for Kfar Shmaryahu to me.

Labels: Egyptian-Israeli border, Hamas

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 9:42 AM