Israel Matzav

Obama making last ditch effort to persuade 'Palestinians' to put off UN bid

The New York Times reports that President Obama is making a last ditch effort to persuade the 'Palestinians' to put off their 'statehood vote' at the United Nations.

The administration has circulated a proposal for renewed peace talks with the Israelis in the hopes of persuading the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, to abandon the bid for recognition at the annual gathering of world leaders at the United Nations General Assembly beginning Sept. 20.

The administration has made it clear to Mr. Abbas that it will veto any request presented to the United Nations Security Council to make a Palestinian state a new member outright.

But the United States does not have enough support to block a vote by the General Assembly to elevate the status of the Palestinians’ nonvoting observer “entity” to that of a nonvoting observer state. The change would pave the way for the Palestinians to join dozens of United Nations bodies and conventions, and it could strengthen their ability to pursue cases against Israel at the International Criminal Court.

Senior officials said the administration wanted to avoid not only a veto but also the more symbolic and potent General Assembly vote that would leave the United States and only a handful of other nations in the opposition. The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatic maneuverings, said they feared that in either case a wave of anger could sweep the Palestinian territories and the wider Arab world at a time when the region is already in tumult. President Obama would be put in the position of threatening to veto recognition of the aspirations of most Palestinians or risk alienating Israel and its political supporters in the United States.

The carrot being dangled in front of the 'Palestinians' is a new set of 'negotiations,' but it's not clear that's what the 'Palestinians' want. In fact, if anything, it is clear that the 'Palestinians' don't want 'negotiations' until and unless Israel first capitulates to the 'Palestinians' demands.

Diplomats are laboring to formulate language that would bridge stubborn differences over how to treat Jewish settlements in the West Bank, and over Israel’s demand for recognition of its status as a Jewish state. A statement by the Quartet would be more than a symbolic gesture. It would outline a series of meetings and actions to resume talks to create a Palestinian state.

The Quartet’s members are divided over the proposal’s terms and continue to negotiate them among themselves, and with the Palestinians and Israelis.

Among the issues still on the table are how explicitly to account for the growing settlements in the West Bank. The question of Israel’s status is also opposed by Russia and viewed warily by some European countries. The Palestinians have never acceded to a formal recognition of Israel as a Jewish state, in deference at least in part to the Palestinians who live in Israel.

The Quartet’s envoy, Tony Blair, the former British prime minister, visited Jerusalem on Tuesday to negotiate the terms of the proposal with the Israelis. He is expected to discuss it with the Palestinians soon.

The Israelis have so far responded positively to the draft, but the Palestinian position remains unclear.

Two administration officials said that Mr. Abbas had recently indicated that he would forgo a United Nations vote in favor of real talks. But a senior Palestinian official, Nabil Shaath, angrily dismissed the American proposal as inadequate and said a vote would go ahead regardless.

“Whoever wrote this thought we are so weak that we cannot even wiggle or that we are stupid,” he said in a telephone interview from Ramallah in the West Bank. He added, “Whatever is to be offered, it is too late.”

Read the whole thing.

I would guess that the 'Palestinians' are being offered another carrot: An absolute deadline by which the US will support a bid for 'Palestinian' statehood in the United Nations. I don't believe that will be publicly disclosed - it would be political suicide for Obama. But I believe that there will be an absolute deadline of the 2013 General Assembly.

If Obama is not the Democratic nominee for any reason, or if it is clear that he will lose the elections anyway, the US will support a 'Palestinian' bid for 'statehood' at the 2012 General Assembly. Otherwise, if God forbid Obama remains President in 2013 (an event which can only be said to be more likely if he finds a way out of this crisis), the US will support a 'Palestinian statehood' bid at the 2013 General Assembly, when Obama cannot be hurt by it domestically anymore.

This would be in keeping with Obama's reelection message, which asks that his supporters be patient, and that there will be 'change that we can believe in' tomorrow.

What could go wrong?

Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Campaign 2012, hope and change, Palestinian state RIGHT NOW syndrome, Unilateral declaration of independence (UDI)

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 1:12 PM