Israel Matzav: Syria rejects Spanish peace plan, Turkey threatening Assad

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Syria rejects Spanish peace plan, Turkey threatening Assad

Syria sent a special envoy to Syria last month to try to convince Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to accept a peace plan. The plan would have included a grant of asylum for Assad and his family in Spain. Assad turned it down.

Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero sent Bernardino Leon, who was at the time one of his senior aides, to Damascus in July "to propose a transition plan for a peaceful solution to the revolution," El Pais said, quoting sources close to Leon.

The mission was so secret that Leon travelled alone using an ordinary passport rather than a diplomatic one. He never set foot in any public building in Damascus, instead meeting with Syrian officials at their homes.

El Pais said, "successive Spanish governments have maintained ... a special relationship with Syria that is beneficial to both countries.

"Zapatero is no exception," and had maintained telephone contact with Assad since the start of the uprising.

Leon's three-point proposal to the Syrian regime included an immediate halt to the repression, the holding of a national conference in Madrid of all Syrian parties in the conflict that would outline a timetable for transition, and the formation of a new government with members of the opposition.

But the proposal was soundly rejected. "My impression is that (Assad) will not compromise on anything substantial," Leon said on his return, El Pais said. "My interlocutors were totally detached from reality."

Aides to Leon said he did not meet with Assad, but other sources told El Pais that he did. The mission was the last Leon would carry out for the Spanish government before taking up his current post as EU Special Representative for the Southern Mediterranean.

I don't believe that Assad is detached from reality at all. He is willing to murder as many Syrians as he has to in order to stay in power, and no one who is able to stop him is willing to try (see "Obama, Barack Hussein). So why is he detached from reality when he says he is willing to continue to murder his people when the world will do nothing about it? Who is threatening Assad anyway? Turkey (Hat Tip: Michael Totten).

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu has issued a stark warning to Syrian authorities to immediately halt military operations across the country or he said there will be nothing left to talk about the steps that would be taken.

Davutoğlu told reporters on Monday after full-scale military operations in a number of Syrian cities since Thursday by Syrian authorities to crush the five-month uprising against the 11-year rule of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that Turkey is demanding that all military operations that result in civilian death must be stopped immediately and unconditionally.

"If these operations do not stop there will be nothing left to say about the steps that would be taken," he said, without elaborating.

"This is our final word to the Syrian authorities, our first expectation is that these operations stop immediately and unconditionally," Davutoğlu said in Turkey's strongest rhetoric yet against its once close ally and neighbour.

I'm sure Assad is quaking in his Gucci loafers. Walter Russell Mead goes so far as to call Turkey a 'sheep in wolf's clothing.'

This looks like a sheep in wolf’s clothing; without specific consequences the threat is weak. The choices for Turkey in Syria aren’t easy, but intervention would be expensive and risky.

Does Assad call what he must hope is a Turkish bluff and continue the repression? Does he temporize, slowing down operations for a day or two? What does Turkey do if Assad ignores its warning?

My guess is that Turkey does nothing, because the last thing it needs is to take on Syria - and possibly Iran along with Syria. But Totten points out correctly:

The Turks do have a serious military and, unlike the Israelis, they can use it without most of the human race going bonkers.

Turkey’s AKP government wants to make the country a regional mini-superpower and has made a modest amount of progress so far. If it succeeds in hasting Assad’s downfall, even if it doesn’t fire a shot, it will become a serious power that Iran will have no choice but to reckon with.

Yes, of course, but Syria hasn't even used any of its weapons that it saves for external enemies (does it have any that aren't pointed at Israel?). What if he shoots chemical weapons at Turkey? They're not prepared for that! And Turkey has most of the senior command of its armed forces locked in jails on trumped-up charges of trying to overthrow the AKP. So who would lead a demoralized Turkish army against Assad right now? And for what purpose? For the greater glory of a regime that views that army as an enemy?

No, Turkey is not going to be the one to stop Assad.

What could go wrong?

Labels: Ahmet Davutoglu, Bashar al-Assad, chemical weapons, Iran, Spain, Syria, Syrian uprising, Turkey