Begin: 'Mossad opposed Osirak bombing too'
Much is being made here in Israel about the vocal opposition of former Mossad director Meir Dagan (pictured) to an Israeli attack on Iran. Dagan has been so vocal in his opposition that it is feared here in Israel that he is weakening our deterrence against Iran. This is from Yaakov Katz's weekend JPost column. Iran’s confidence also appears to have received a boost from the recent media mayhem in Israel over former Mossad chief Meir Dagan’s comments about Jerusalem’s military option vis-à-vis the Iranian nuclear issue. Dagan said it was a “stupid idea” to attack Iran, and pointed out the “impossible” regional challenge Israel would face following such an attack.In this context, the following statement by Benny Begin should be seen as a counterweight to Dagan and as a warning to Iran that they shouldn't be so confident that Israel won't disregard Dagan's advice. After all, says Begin, his father disregarded the Mossad's advice when he ordered the attack on Iraq's Osirak reactor 30 years ago last week.
For Tehran, these comments fell on welcoming ears. For years, the Iranians have questioned Israel’s military capabilities. Now here comes Dagan – their archnemesis – and gives them a reason to. Dagan’s justification for doing this – his concern with Israel’s current political leadership – might be genuine, even though it was done with the awareness that it would eat away at the deterrence Jerusalem has tried for years to create in the face of the Iranian threat.
Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe “Bogie” Ya’alon has long spoken about the importance of creating a “credible military option” for Iran’s nuclear program. According to Ya’alon, it is not enough to speak about the option; it is also necessary to show the Iranians that it is real, viable and effective.
“They need to fear that the military option is real and can be used,” Ya’alon has said in the past.
To back up this argument, Ya’alon has referred to Tehran’s 2003 decision to suspend its enrichment of uranium and weapons program. That move was based on fear that after the US invasion of Iraq, it was next in line. President George W. Bush had already listed Iran has part of the “Axis of Evil” mentioned in his 2002 State of the Union address.
Judging by its recent decisions, Iran no longer feels threatened. As it continues to provoke the world without paying a price, there is unfortunately no reason it should.
“Among those opposing Operation Opera [AL: bombing Saddam Hussein’s Osirak nuclear reactor] was an important, serious man, who had understanding and knew the secrets. He expressed his opinion clearly before the national leadership. He presented convincing arguments. He relied also on his considerable experience and reputation. His recommendation was considered. His recommendation was rejected. He was the head of the Mossad.” Minister Benny Begin in his 10 June 2011 column in Yediot Ahronot. [IMRA translation](Until Dagan, the name of the Mossad's head was kept secret and Begin continued that tradition by not disclosing the name of the Mossad head in question). Hmmm.
Labels: Benny Begin, Iranian nuclear program, Meir Dagan, Mossad, Osirak
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 12:35 PM
3 Comments:
If I were Iranian, I would not feel reassured by this Israeli debate. All seem to agree on one point - Israel has irrational leaders who will take irresponsible chances because of their love of violence or, to be more polite, their conviction that security must be based on strength (rather than accommodation or a common set of standards).
Yes, there is now space for timid Washington politicians to be "loyal" to Israel (since they seem under the illusion that they must do so) and still back a hardline faction, now that the Israeli hardliners have split into the Risk-Taking Faction (Netanyahu and Barak) vs. the Risk-Averse Faction (Dagan, Diskin, Ashkenazi). One might better label them the Short-sighted Faction and the Far-sighted Faction, now that I think of it [http://shadowedforest.blogspot.com/2011/06/reality-based-policy-making-case-of.html].
However, I have yet to see any evidence that Obama will take advantage of this opportunity to rid himself of Netanyahu's dead weight by welcoming Dagan to the White House as "advisor" on Israeli security.
Conclusion - Iran still has to worry about the irrationality of Israeli politicians.
The Iranians simply have no idea what Israel is going to do, and even less of an idea of what Israel's capabilities are. They're thinking pretty hard about it, that's for sure.
Seems kind of smart for a high profile Israeli military official to play devil's advocate in a situation like this, especially when it causes so much wild speculation. That gives Israel all the more chance to really surprise everyone. The only thing that would be irrational is for Israel to start telling the world exactly what it is intending to do.
It never fails to surprise me how willfully ignorant some people are... these morons want so much to believe that Israel is one step away from the abyss... dream on!
@ William deB. Mills
What about the irrationality of the Iranian leadership? Here's a President who keeps on talking about destruction of the Jewish State. Iran has time and again declared that Israel (Zionist enemy) should be wiped off the map. It is not Israel which has posed any existential threat to Iran, notwithstanding the fact that Israel was an undeclared nuclear power. Coupled with this is the fact that the IAEA inspectors were not allowed access to the nuclear sites and Iran's defiance on going ahead with uranium enrichment at Fordow facility.
It is Iran with its ravings and rantings and warnings about closing the Strait of Hormuz is keen on provoking an armed conflict with Israel and the West and not the other way round.
Post a Comment
<< Home