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Sunday, June 12, 2011

The Turkish elections

Sunday is election day in Turkey. Michael Rubin tells us what to look for.
Alas, the polls do not look good. Here are five. The AKP is the Islamist party, the CHP is the center-left secularist opposition, the MHP is the nationalist party, and the independents are mainly Kurds. It certainly looks like the AKP won't have much trouble getting re-elected. The question is whether the MHP will break the 10 percent threshold. The way the Turkish system works, every party must get above 10 percent to win seats in parliament. If they get less than 10 percent, their seats are re-allocated in a way that benefits the largest party. That's why back in 2002, the AKP was about to win 32 percent of the vote, but win an overwhelming majority in parliament. If the MHP doesn't make it, and if the CHP underperforms, there will be no stopping the AKP from cementing its transformation of Turkey.
Read the whole thing. It sounds like it's too late to stop it.

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