Israel urging Obama to commit to intervene to save the Saudis
Would Barack Obama abandon Saudi King Abdullah to a 'popular uprising'? According to Ted Koppel, that's just one of the scenarios keeping Israel's leadership up at night (Hat Tip: Daily Alert). Hearing Israeli leaders express grave concerns about Iran and its nuclear potential is nothing new. What is new is a growing worry that America's adversaries will be less inclined to take warnings from Washington seriously. Each week that passes without the overthrow or elimination of Moammar Gadhafi is perceived in Jerusalem as emboldening the leadership of Iran and North Korea."Imagine," one source told me, "how Gadhafi must be kicking himself for giving up the development of Libya's nuclear program."What could go wrong?
The Israeli government is so concerned that America's adversaries may miscalculate U.S. intentions that it is privately urging Washington to make it clear that the U.S. would intervene in Saudi Arabia should the survival of that government be threatened. That is, after all, what President George H.W. Bush did more than 20 years ago when Saddam Hussein ordered Iraqi forces into Kuwait and moved forces in the direction of Saudi Arabia. "This," President Bush said on more than one occasion, "will not stand." And it didn't.
Given the current wide range of U.S. responses to public upheavals throughout North Africa and the Persian Gulf, the Israelis are convinced that the principle needs to be unambiguously restated, if only as a reminder that Washington knows where its critical national interests lie. Absent such a public recommitment, they worry that Iran will be encouraged to even greater mischief. Wherever there is a restive and newly active Shiite minority, as for example in Bahrain, a mere causeway from the coast of Saudi Arabia, Tehran can be expected to provide assistance and stir the pot.
Just as enemies such as Iran need to be cautioned, America's traditional allies need to be reassured. That's why Israeli officials are recommending a Marshall Plan for Egypt. The overthrow of Hosni Mubarak may have been no loss in the annals of democracy, but under Mr. Mubarak Egypt was a pillar of stability and a reliable if not always warm partner for Israel. Egypt's political future at this time is uncertain enough; the Israelis believe it is essential to prevent its economic collapse. The U.S. has poured billions of dollars into Egypt since Anwar Sadat made peace with Israel, and senior Israeli officials believe the economic spigot should remain wide open.
With almost no margin for error, the Israelis have long been among the world's foremost pragmatists. While I was in Jerusalem, events in Syria were coming to a boil. Since the Syrians are closely allied with Israel's bitterest enemies—Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hezbollah's main sponsor, Iran—one might expect Israeli leaders to take some comfort in seeing the regime of Bashar Assad in trouble. But here, too, the Israelis are far more comfortable with stability on their borders. Assad, like his father before him, has maintained an uneasy truce along Syria's border with Israel, despite Israel's continued occupation of the Golan Heights.
Labels: Barack Obama, Bashar al-Assad, Binyamin Netanyahu, Egyptian regime change, Saudi King Abdullah, Syrian uprising
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 6:31 AM
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