Israel Matzav

Assad playing Hariri against Hezbullah

In Lebanon, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has taken a page out of his father, Hafez's playbook. He's playing Prime Minister Saad Hariri off against Hezbullah.

According to Lebanese observers familiar with the Syrian regime’s thinking, Assad never intended to end the crisis in Lebanon , he reportedly used the Saudi -Syrian dialogue as a cover for Syria’s comeback to Lebanon and for this reason the Saudi Syrian efforts failed and so did the Qatari-Turkish efforts .

The observers believe that Assad all along wanted the crisis in Lebanon to escalate and to lead to a Muslim Sunni- Shiite strife in order for him to justify sending his troops as the savior for Lebanon , just like his father did in 1976 when he occupied Lebanon until 2005 (following the assassination of former PM Rafik Hariri ) when Syrian troops had to withdraw under Lebanese and US pressure.

In an address to the Lebanese people Caretaker Prime Minsiter Saad Hariri said he decided to maintain his candidacy for premiership and accused the Iranian backed Hezbollah led opposition of trying to kick him out of political life .

He said he made one sacrifice after another but the opposition always wanted more and “unfortunately the Saudi Syrian efforts failed ”

MP Walid Jumblatt was told by Hariri prior to his meeting last Saturday with the Syrian president : “They want me to surrender and present concession after concession … on top of that they have a gun pointed to my head,” he was quoted as saying.

Hariri also reportedly told Jumblatt that the opposition cannot be counted on in respecting agreements, as proven through its violation of the Doha agreement when the opposition ministers resigned from Cabinet.

There is no reason for Hezbollah to celebrate according to the observers because :

- Under no circumstances will Syria allow Hezbollah to completely control Lebanon for security reasons. Complete control of Lebanon will spell disaster for Syrian security , because any war between Israel and Hezbollah will mean a war on Syria too

- Once Hezbollah is in complete control of Lebanon then Iran will be in full control of the country and Syria will lose its only card in negotiating a peace agreement with Israel to regain control of the Golan Heights .

- Just like his father(the late Hafez Assad) , Bashar will invade Lebanon and his target will be ….yes Hezbollah as his father targeted his former allies the Palestine Liberation Organization in 1976.

There's no loyalty like Arab loyalty, is there?

Read the whole thing.

Labels: Bashar al-Assad, Hafez al-Assad, Hezbullah, Saad Hariri

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 6:40 AM