Israel Matzav

When 'good' weapons get into the hands of bad people

War is becoming more high tech by the day. Let's look first what happens when these weapons are in the hands of the good guys and then we'll talk a bit about these weapons getting into the hands of bad guys.

This is a US Army video from Iraq, circa 2005. Let's go to the videotape.



But what happens when countries that may not be the United States (or Israel) get these drones? For example, in Friday's Washington Post, David Ignatius tells the story of the Saudis' border war with the Houthi's in Yemen in 2009 (Hat Tip: Daily Alert):

A year ago, Saudi Arabia was fighting a nasty border war against the Houthi rebels across its frontier with Yemen. The Saudis began bombing Houthi targets inside Yemen on Nov. 5, 2009, but the airstrikes were inaccurate, and there were reports of civilian casualties.

The Saudis appealed to America for imagery from U.S. surveillance satellites in space, so they could target more precisely. Gen. David Petraeus, who was Centcom commander at the time, is said to have backed the Saudi request, but it was opposed by the State Department and others. They warned that intervening in this border conflict, even if only by providing targeting information, could violate the laws of war.

So the Saudis turned elsewhere for help - to France, which has its own reconnaissance satellites. The French, who were worried that imprecise Saudi bombing was creating too many civilian casualties in Yemen, agreed to help. The necessary details were arranged within days.

When French President Nicolas Sarkozy visited Riyadh on Nov. 17, he was ready to open the new intelligence liaison channel. A Saudi official recalls that by the first night of Sarkozy's visit, detailed pictures of the Yemeni battle space began to move electronically to the Saudis.

Using this precise satellite intelligence, the Saudis were able to monitor the Houthis' hideouts, equipment dumps and training sites. Saudi warplanes then attacked with devastating effectiveness. Within a few weeks, the Houthis were requesting a truce, and by February this chapter of the border war was over.

Well, now the Saudis want more and better satellite imagery. After all, it was such a success last year.

The lid on Pandora's box is coming open: The Saudis, understandably, now want their own satellite capability, and they will soon request bids from Western companies for such a system. Riyadh also wants drones that can see and attack enemy targets in remote places. Washington has been weighing whether to include versions of its Predator drones in an arms sale to the kingdom. Such weapons would boost Saudi ability to deter Iran, but they could also threaten Israel.

Remember those promises of maintaining Israel's qualitative superiority? They're looking pretty big right now, aren't they? After all, it's much easier to make war if you don't have to send in any troops, isn't it? (It also isn't necessarily successful - ask former IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz, who tried fighting the Second Lebanon War from 35,000 feet).

Here's another example of drones at work that may not please you.

Consider the case of Turkey: For years, Ankara has sought U.S. technology to fight what it sees as an insurgency by Kurdish rebel groups, especially the "PKK" that hides in northern Iraq. Now, that high-tech help has arrived.

The United States has quietly created a joint "centralized command center" with Turkey for surveillance drones flying over northern Iraq. Turkish officers look over the shoulders of their U.S. counterparts at the imagery and are free to target suspicious activity when they see it. The United States doesn't pull the triggers; it just shows the pictures.

And recall that Israel has been selling drones to Turkey.

It would be nice if the democracies kept these kinds of technologies to themselves. Unfortunately, greed and stupidity make it unlikely that will happen. What could go wrong?

Labels: electronic warfare, Predator drones, satellites, Saudi Arabia, Turkey

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:06 AM