Israel Matzav

Do you really want to go there?

Yitzchak Klein warns that the 'Palestinians' may be making a serious mistake by trying to unilaterally declare a 'state' (Hat Tip: Daily Alert).

In the near and middle term, a unilateral Palestinian application to the UN for recognition would produce bad press and a manageable level of international discomfort for Israel. In the long term, it would prove to be a serious Palestinian blunder.

The object of a unilateral application for recognition would not be to force Israel to recognize Palestinian independence in principle. Israel has already accepted the idea of “two states for two peoples.” Rather, the object would be to use UN recognition to force Israel to accede to Palestinian territorial claims in Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem without the Palestinians making any concessions in return. In this the Palestinians would almost certainly fail.

History is strewn with the wreckage of international declarations that did not correspond to actual power relations on the ground. In the long run, the international community adjusts to de facto power, and declarations that are not founded on substance fade into oblivion. This will happen to the Palestinians’ attempt to claim territory without controlling it. Palestinians right now control some towns and villages in Judea and Samaria through their American-trained police force. The writ of the IDF runs everywhere else.

UNILATERALISM IS a two-way street. By abrogating the Oslo Accords, the Palestinians make it legitimate for Israel to withdraw from its own obligations to negotiate a final settlement and to recognize a Palestinian state. If the Palestinians unilaterally seek international recognition, Israel should move with all deliberate speed to create, unilaterally, a territorial arrangement that suits its interests: Separation from the Palestinians, while establishing control over territory needed for security, for its water resources and yes, for the security and further development of communities in Judea and Samaria.

This will require a few years. Roads and fences should be constructed to ensure that Palestinians can move freely between their own population centers while never entering territory to which Israel lays claim. Israel could end up controlling up to 60 percent of Judea and Samaria. After a decent interval, Israeli sovereignty should be extended to these areas.

The result will be a Palestinian entity that is cantonized but enjoys de facto independence. The Palestinians will object to cantonization. In response, Israel should say: “If you’d like to negotiate the matter, the prime minister’s number is in the phone book.”

This policy would accord with what we know of Israeli public opinion. Most Israelis do not want to rule the Palestinians. Neither do they want to uproot more Israeli communities, divide Jerusalem or surrender territory needed for security. Most do not expect to achieve a peace treaty with the Palestinians – and couldn’t care less.

As for Jerusalem, if the Palestinians make a move toward declaring independence unilaterally, Israel should move quickly to offer east Jerusalem residents a choice in a snap referendum: Either ratify the status quo, or else choose to join the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria – losing Israeli identity cards, the right to enter Israel, to work and to receive Israeli social services. The result is likely to be gratifying and to put paid to the legitimacy of Palestinian claims to a state “in the 1967 borders, including east Jerusalem.”

Read the whole thing.

Yitzchak is making two underlying assumptions that I hope are correct but fear may not be. One is that Israel will follow his diplomatic prescription (the rest of the article) and not buckle under inevitable pressure from its allies (as Prime Minister Netanyahu is currently doing).

The other assumption is that the 'international community' - and particularly the Obama administration if it is still in power then - does not take Samantha Power's prescription for how to create a 'Palestinian state.' (If you haven't seen it before, click through to that link and watch the video).

Unfortunately, neither of those assumptions is automatic.

Labels: annexation, Palestinian state, unilateral declaration of statehood, Yitzchak Klein

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 9:30 AM