Israel Matzav

Will the US work against it?

The 'Palestinians,' says Herb Keinon, may not even bother to go to the UN Security Council to try to declare a 'state,' because they would almost surely encounter an American veto. But they may go to the General Assembly. And then the question becomes whether the US will just vote (hopefully against such a resolution) or will it actively work to defeat it?

The problem is that this type of move – taking the question to the UN – would set the ball rolling, build momentum that will be hard to contain, and it will be hard to predict where it will all lead.

While it is fairly certain the US would veto a unilateral Security Council resolution declaring a Palestinian state – though a resolution declaring the settlements illegal may be more difficult for Washington to vote against – there is an enormous amount of distance between voting against something and actively campaigning against it.

Israel would not only expect the US to vote against any such motion in any UN forum – even if the Palestinians don’t take it to the Security Council because of the fear of a veto – but also to actively campaign against it and get others to block it as well.

Last month in Vienna, Israel – with the active and intensive support of the US – was able to squash a resolution at the International Atomic Energy Agency calling for it to accede to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and place its nuclear facilities under IAEA guidelines. The US could have simply voted against the resolution and left it at that. But it didn’t; rather, it fought diplomatically, shoulder to shoulder with Israel, to defeat the measure.

One could say with a good degree of certainty that the US would not support unilateral Palestinian efforts in the UN, and will most likely vote against them. But will Washington work with Israel against them, especially if it holds Netanyahu responsible for the current stalemate because of a refusal to extend the settlement moratorium? That right now is a very open question – one the Palestinians are more than eager to pose, and one the world will deem completely legitimate as long as there is no motion. As long as there are no direct talks.

Last month in Vienna was very different than now. First, the US could delude itself that it had established a 'peace process' and getting the world to vote in Israel's favor would keep that 'peace process' going.

Second, there was (and is) a sense that the US let Israel be the sacrifice on which the 'success' of April's nuclear summit in the US would be based. It cannot have hurt the Obama administration politically to have tried to make up for that affront (calling for a conference on a Middle East nuclear free zone without Israel being at peace with its neighbors and without including other types of weapons of mass destruction).

Third, a month ago, the US was about a month and a half before midterm elections. Now, the US is about two weeks before. In two weeks' time, what will happen? What could go wrong?

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 2:30 PM