Israel Matzav

On direct talks and the 'settlement freeze'

President Obama is trying to decouple the 'settlement freeze' from direct talks. He believes that if direct talks begin, Israel will 'naturally' (i.e. feel pressured) to extend the 'settlement freeze.' And President Obama cannot afford the political capital to pressure Israel on the freeze issue between now and September. So Obama has placed the ball in the 'Palestinians' court to come to the table by calling for direct talks to begin 'well before' the settlement freeze expires in September.

Prime Minister Netanyahu would gladly extend the settlement freeze, but he has no support for doing that in his party, or in his government (he could probably not even get it through the 'septet' inner cabinet - Ehud Barak and Dan Meridor may be the only other ministers to vote in favor along with Netanyahu). So Netanyahu has also signaled that the ball is in the 'Palestinians' court.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled on Thursday he would not extend beyond September a 10-month moratorium on new housing starts in Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank.

"I think we've done enough. Let's get on with the talks," he said, when asked at the Council on Foreign Relations whether he would extend the limited freeze he put in place to coax the Palestinians into peace negotiations.

Will the 'Palestinians' rise to the challenge? Here are two indicators that they will not. First, the 'Palestinians' see a 'settlement freeze' as a precursor to direct talks and not as a reward.

"I hope [Obama's deadline] is not an attempt to pressure the Palestinians that if they don't move to the direct talks, there will be a resumption of settlement construction in the West Bank," PLO representative Maen Rashid Areikat told The Cable.

Second, 'moderate' 'Palestinian' President Mahmoud Abbas Abu Mazen is looking for Arab League support to go to war with Israel.

Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas told Arab leaders that the PA is ready to wage war on Israel if the rest of the Arab world does, according to the PA daily Al-Hayat al-Jadida as translated by Palestinian Media Watch.

“If you want war, and if all of you will fight Israel, we are in favor. But the Palestinians will not fight alone because they don't have the ability to do it,” Abbas quoted himself as having said at the March Arab League Summit in Libya.

Arab cities in Judea and Samaria were “completely destroyed” in the Israeli counterterrorism operations that took place during the Oslo War (Second Intifada), Abbas told Arab League members. “We will not agree that it will be destroyed again,” he said.

Abbas quoted his own statements to the Arab League while in a meeting with the PA's ambassador to Jordan. The statements were used in explanation of his opposition to the approach taken by Hamas. Hamas pushes for “resistance” - a buzz word used by Arabs to refer to terrorism – and refusal to negotiate with Israel.

"What we hear from everyone is that the basis is negotiations. At a time that the entire world agrees about this... We are unable to confront Israel militarily,” Abbas told the PA envoy.

But Netanyahu has no support for extending the freeze in his coalition, and Obama cannot get into another fight with the Israelis before November and expect to survive politically, so the ball is clearly in Abu Mazen's court.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 7:52 AM