Israel Matzav

Will Saudi Arabia be complicit in an Israeli attack on Iran?

Last Wednesday, I blogged a story that had Israel dropping equipment for an attack on Iran at an airfield in Tabuk, Saudi Arabia. What none of us can really be sure about is whether to believe the report. Here are some expert opinions and I will follow them with mine.

“Obviously there is much fear in the Arab world, and a clear understanding in Saudi Arabia as well as in Israel that a nuclear Iran is a great threat,” said Dr. Ephraim Inbar, director of the Begin- Sadat Center for Strategic Studies in Ramat Gan.

“This brings us together on a strategic level in that we have common interests.

Since the Arab world and Saudi Arabia understand that President Obama is a weak person, maybe they decided to facilitate this happening,” Inbar said.

“That said, I don’t think the Saudis want to burden themselves with this type of cooperation with Israel,” he said.

“They are afraid of Iran and if the Israeli action is not successful they would be vulnerable to Iranian retaliation.”

“It’s interesting that the news first came from Iran,” Inbar added. “Maybe it’s a warning [from Iran] to Saudi that we know what you are doing and we are not happy about it. It’s also possible that Saudi Arabia let the news out as a warning to America that if you don’t do something, we will.”

Dr. Eldad Pardo, an expert on Iran at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem’s Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace, argued that there was growing support in the Arab world for an Israeli attack on Iran.

“If there is military collaboration between the Israelis and countries that are officially in conflict with Israel, both sides would be sure to keep it secret,” Pardo said. “However, as the Iranian nuclear project becomes more dangerous and the regime becomes less tolerant, more and more people across the Middle East are ready to collaborate their efforts to block this project.

“That makes Israel just one player in a much larger military, economic and political effort,” he continued. “There are clearly an intensifying set of signals towards Iran that it’s not just Israel that means business. We saw it in the sanctions, which the United Arab Emirates just joined, in the quick reaction to the Turkish offer to act as a gobetween to resolve the nuclear dispute, in the Russian decision not to sell the S-300 missiles to Iran and the fact that Arab countries have not come out against reports of a new Israeli satellite and new Israeli military equipment.”

While many regional military and geopolitical analysts believe the reports of secret Israeli-Saudi military cooperation, others view such claims with intense skepticism.

“Everything is a bluff,” said Dr. Guy Bechor, head of the Middle East program at Herzliya’s Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy.

“What war with Iran? Do you believe every little report you read? It’s all a bluff.”

“These reports are just pure fantasy and have no foundation,” said Dr. Mustafa Alani, director of security and defense studies at the Dubaibased Gulf Research Center.

“The Saudis will never be part of a military action against Iran, never mind an Israeli attack on Iran.

“You have to remember that the Saudis made lots of protects when Israel used their airspace to attack the Iraqi reactor,” Alani said. “Since then the Saudis have enhanced their capabilities to defend their airspace.

“Furthermore, the Saudis are not needed and there would be no technical military reason for such cooperation,” he claimed. “The Americans can attack Iran without embarrassing all these Gulf states, not just Saudi Arabia.”

Shafeeq Ghabra, an expert on Gulf geopolitics, a professor of political science at Kuwait University and the founding president of the American University of Kuwait, argued that an attack on Iran was not in Saudi interests.

“It would be impossible for the Saudis to allow an Israeli attack on Iran,” he said. “For Saudi[s] to cooperate with a regime that is occupying Jerusalem, laying siege to Gaza and building settlements in the West Bank would undermine justice in the way the Saudis see it. It would also basically be allowing one nuclear power to attack another country that wants to be nuclear.

“Saudi Arabia will not stand for a military showdown because more than anyone else they know that this will bring chaos to the region, increase radicalization and terrorist activity,” Ghabra said.

“That is not in Saudi Arabia’s interest and quite frankly it’s not in Israel’s interest either.”

The IDF and the Foreign Ministry both declined to comment on the reports.

My first question is why Tabuk? Look at the map. Wouldn't you want something a bit further east if you were going to attack Iran? Unless all the targets are north of the Persian Gulf (which I don't think they are), Tabuk doesn't seem to gain Israel a whole lot.

Having said that, one of the first rules of survival in this region is "my enemy's enemy is my friend." That ought to make Israel a whole lot of people's friend. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt - they should all love us. Do they? Well, not enough to admit it publicly, but maybe.

I don't buy all the Arab commenters who say the Saudis would never do it. They don't know anything and would be afraid to say anything even if they did know. Guy Bechor has a lot of credibility but so does Ephraim Inbar. And no one really seriously expects Obama to attack Iran regardless of what happens, so I think you have to discount anyone who says it won't happen because the US will do it.

Bottom line: I don't believe all the details of the report were correct, but I do believe that something is afoot and I do believe that it's possible - even probable - that Israel will attack Iran at some point. What Saudi Arabia's role in such an attack might be is a separate question and I suspect that the answer will be a matter for speculation for years to come.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 11:06 PM