Israel Matzav

Dubai's comeuppance?

Dubai has reacted with a lot of righteous indignation to the death of Hamas murderer and arms dealer Mahmoud al-Mabhouh on its territory. With the Mossad being blamed for Mabhouh's death, there's been a lot of talk about how the heretofore secret relations between Israel and the UAE have been damaged.

But if you insist on playing both sides off against the middle, you are going to get stung once in a while. Dubai may have had secret relations with Israel, but that hasn't stopped them from being the major trading port for Iran or from hosting terrorists on its territory and protecting them. In fact, as this article points out, when Mabhouh's body was first found, a top police official in Dubai said that Mabhouh need not have traveled under a false passport because Dubai would have been happy to protect him. And he was not the only one.

Iran is the principal destination of goods re-exported from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), of which Dubai is a member. The bulk of these goods go by sea -- the major Iranian port of Bandar Abbas is a mere 100 miles away from Dubai. The emirate boasts a busy dhow port for smaller vessels as well as a modern container port at Jebel Ali. It also offers numerous daily flights to and from several Iranian cities. Annual trade between the two jurisdictions has reportedly tripled to $12 billion over the past five years, and an estimated 8,000 Iranian businesses and 1,200 trading companies are currently based in Dubai.

UAE efforts to clamp down on illicit Iranian trade have grown in the face of U.S. pressure but are still a work in progress. The UAE passed its first national security export control law in 2007, and authorities have seized several illicit shipments destined for Iran. UAE officials say they are making it more difficult for Iranian businessmen to obtain and renew visas and commercial licenses. Similarly, Iranians are reportedly having trouble finding UAE banks to handle their transactions. In addition, plans have been announced to more closely regulate the dhow port on Dubai Creek, where customs supervision is currently nonexistent.

UAE initiatives do not necessarily mean cooperation from Dubai, however. Although the leading emirate, Abu Dhabi, holds nearly 8 percent of global oil reserves and often bankrolls the other six sheikhdoms, each emirate proudly preserves its independent status. Thus, while Abu Dhabi is clearly apprehensive about the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran, Dubai appears less so. In 2008, Sheikha Lubna al-Qasimi, the UAE's minister of economy and planning, explained why its authority and ability to act might be limited: "At the end of the day, Iran is still a neighbor."

...

Dubai also has experience with violent death. In 2008, an Egyptian politician paid a hit-man to kill Lebanese singer Suzanne Tamim, who was living there in an exclusive apartment block. The hit man was tracked down and arrested because, reportedly, bloodstained footprints marked his escape. The Egyptian authorities imposed gag orders on reporting of the case.

Just weeks before the Mahbouh killing, the magazine Vanity Fair claimed that the CIA had tracked A. Q. Khan during his frequent visits to Dubai and had planned to assassinate him there. The magazine's source said the hit didn't happen "because of lack of political will" in Washington. A CIA spokesperson refused to discuss the question with the magazine.

Read the whole thing. Dubai has been trying to play both sides against the middle for too long. They need to decide if they want to be in the Western orbit or aligned with the likes of Tehran and Damascus.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 1:16 AM