Israel Matzav

The way forward?

Elliott Abrams tries to propose a way forward for the Israeli - 'Palestinian' negotiations.

The way forward does not lie through fancy international conferences, and one idea still mentioned as an Obama option--proposing a final status plan--would be disastrous and unsuccessful. The way for the Palestinians to get a state is to go ahead and build it. If and when the institutions are there and functioning, from police and courts to a parliament, negotiations will reflect that fact. But the argument that settling the borders and removing the Israeli troops must come first is a path to failure. For one thing, Israel will not and should not leave until it is clear that the West Bank can be policed by Palestinians and that the region will not be a source of terrorism against Israel, as Gaza and South Lebanon became when Israel left there. No conference and no treaty can provide such a guarantee; only functioning Palestinian police forces that are already fighting and defeating terror can do so.

Such a practical approach would bring other benefits. It would enhance the status and power of Palestinian moderates who are working to improve life in the West Bank, rather than enhancing the status and power of old PLO officials who thrive on endless, useless negotiating sessions. It would put a premium on practical Israeli-Palestinian cooperation, rather than elevating precisely the final status questions (like Jerusalem or Palestinian refugees) that most bitterly divide them. It would increase the gap between the West Bank and Gaza, thereby showing Palestinians that Hamas rule brings only despair and poverty. It would press the Arab states to help real live Palestinians in the West Bank, rather than the imaginary Palestinians--all either bold jihadists or desperate widows and orphans--whom they see on Al Jazeera. In fact, except for occasional visits by Jordanians and Egyptians (who have peace treaties with Israel already), top Arab officials haven't a clue what's going on in the West Bank, for they've never been there. Not one head of state or government or foreign minister, not once. If George Mitchell wants to do something useful, he could organize a tour; take a few princes and foreign ministers to Ramallah and Jericho and Jenin, where they would find that they are neither in Somalia nor some heroic battle scene against Zionist oppressors.

Nice try, but this will never happen. The Obama administration isn't willing to adopt such a long-term strategy that is unlikely to bring it any political benefit and that is likely to lead to Obama failing to fulfill his number one foreign policy goal during his term.

And the 'Palestinians' are looking for instant gratification and glory, and not for the grind of day-to-day construction of state institutions like schools, roads, hospitals and sewers. Even Salam Fayyad - who purports to be willing to take time to build 'Palestinian institutions' puts a two-year deadline on that process.

Meanwhile, Israel would be insane to allow a 'Palestinian' state to happen unless and until its security has an ironclad guarantee. And that's the least likely thing of all to happen.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 2:55 AM