Israel Matzav

Lebanon's 'unity government'

Lebanese Prime Minister Sa'ad Hariri formed a cabinet on Monday. While the cabinet may reflect unity in Lebanon, the price has been steep: Hariri has squandered his election victory and the opportunity it gave him to dictate the country's agenda, while making a future war with Israel that neither the Israelis nor Hariri want a lot more likely.

Yet for all the relief surrounding its formation, the government will continue to face deep rifts that go to the heart of Lebanon’s still-unresolved identity, with one camp defining itself through resistance to Israel and the West, and the other aspiring to a more commercial and cosmopolitan role.

The new cabinet includes 15 seats for the majority led by Mr. Hariri, 10 for the Hezbollah-led opposition, and five for President Michel Suleiman, who has struggled to maintain neutrality. But because of the role of independent power brokers — including the wily Druse leader Walid Jumblatt, an ally of Mr. Hariri’s who distanced himself after the elections — the majority will have little chance to dictate the agenda.

That limitation could be a formula for further gridlock, especially on divisive issues like the international tribunal investigating the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, the father of the prime minister-designate.

Another volatile issue, Hezbollah’s arsenal, is not even up for discussion. When Saad Hariri’s allies appeared to challenge Hezbollah’s military prerogatives in May 2008, the group and its allies seized much of west Beirut, setting off the worst internal clashes since this country’s 15-year civil war. The violence was a bitter lesson, and led to a power-sharing agreement that enshrined a cabinet veto for Hezbollah and its allies.

By choosing to bring Hezbullah into his government, Hariri has ensured that any future terror attacks by Hezbullah on Israel will be treated as an action of the government of Lebanon and not just an act of Hezbullah. And by cowering in fear of Hezbullah's weapons, he has ensured that his country will continue to be dominated by Iran and Syria.

Will the United States deal with a Lebanese government that includes Hezbullah? Under George W. Bush, the answer would have been no. Under Barack Hussein Obama, I would bet that the US will deal with Lebanon.

What could go wrong?

More here.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 6:53 PM