Israel Matzav

Why Netanyahu can implement a de facto 'settlement freeze'

At the left-leaning Washington Note, Steve Clemons points to a Twitter entry by Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon on Tuesday in which Ayalon says

Hopes the rumored settlement freeze is just a rumor, because it hasn't gone through appropriate forums.

Unfortunately, the only thing Ayalon and his party can do if it is not a rumor is to withdraw from the government in the hope of bringing it down. And if Ayalon's Yisrael Beiteinu were to withdraw from the government, you can bet that Kadima would go in, bringing a net gain of 13 Knesset seats.

The Defense Minister has sole authority to approve or disapprove construction in Judea and Samaria, and you can bet that Ehud Barak - already under pressure from his Leftist Labor party for being in the government - is not inclined to approve new construction in Judea and Samaria whether or not the United States is pressuring Israel for a 'settlement freeze.' In theory, Netanyahu could fire Barak and bring in a defense minister who would support construction in Judea and Samaria, but the odds of that happening right now are somewhere between slim and none.

Ayalon's statement is a nice reaffirmation of support for the revenants from Yisrael Beiteinu, but it is backed up by very little of substance.

But the de facto 'settlement freeze' goes a long way in explaining why the Likud's Moshe (Boogie) Yaalon has allied himself with Moshe Feiglin. Yaalon has a better chance of forcing a change in government policy by forcing a change in the Likud's leadership than Ayalon has of forcing a change in government policy through implicit but empty threats issued on his Twitter page.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 12:22 PM