Israel Matzav

Obama's nuclear summit

It looks like President Obama may have put his foot in his mouth again by making grandiose promises without thinking through how he will fulfill them. In July, Obama told the G-8 summit that we would convene a meeting in March to discuss nuclear security. The meeting ought to include all of he world's current and aspiring nuclear powers - some 25-30 nations. But whom will Obama invite? Is Israel on the list?

There’s no good choice.

Invite Israel, and open its leaders up to questions about the country’s widely reported nuclear weapons program — which the Israelis have long refused to discuss.

But leave out Israel, and the Middle Eastern nations who would seem to be a necessity at any summit discussing nuclear security would feel compelled to point to Israel’s reported efforts as a source of instability in the region.

“I see this as one giant root canal which is going to be really painful for everybody who shows up — and for everybody who doesn’t,” said Aaron David Miller, a former State Department official who worked on Arab-Israeli peace negotiations under four presidents.

“Even if you try to define the summit agenda to be nuclear terrorism and nuclear security, the people you do invite are going to bring Israel to the table, figuratively speaking, anyway,” Miller said. “They’re going to need to think this through extremely carefully.”

The summit, set for March 9 and 10, is aimed at combating nuclear terrorism, which Obama has called the “most immediate and extreme threat to global security.”

The 'most immediate and extreme threat to global security isn't just nuclear terrorism. It's Iran.

And of course, that brings up other questions. Will Iran be invited? Will North Korea? Burma (Myanamar)? Is the summit really meant to discuss nuclear terrorism or nuclear disarmament? If what's going to be discussed is techniques for preventing nuclear terrorism, do we really want Iran or Syria there? For that matter, will Syria be invited?

Experts said some Arab countries probably won’t attend if Israel is invited. The largely Muslim states most likely to be invited to next March’s summit are Egypt, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, the analysts said. The embassies of those countries, and of Israel, did not respond to requests for comment for this article.

“I’d think — if at all — Israel would be willing to take part in such a meeting only if there was an understanding between us and the [Obama] administration about what things are going to be on the table,” said Zaki Shalom, a professor of strategic studies at Israel’s Ben-Gurion University.

Do we really want to rely on the Obama administration sticking to 'understandings'? Haven't we been through that already?

“Egypt … has raised many times the Dimona project and that it must be under inspection, and Israel must relinquish its so-called nuclear project, and that there’s no justification for other states in the region to refrain from having a nuclear option when Israel is doing this, and everyone knows they have it,” he said, referring to the site of Israel’s reported nuclear program in the Negev Desert city of Dimona.

However, a former deputy national security adviser in Israel, Chuck Freilich, said the benefits to Israel of any U.S.-led meeting on nuclear security were likely to outweigh the costs.

“If it’s focused primarily on nuclear terrorism, then that’s an issue that Israel has interest in. Nuclear terrorism is a danger to Israel more than most other countries,” Freilich said. He dismissed likely complaints from Arab states as largely rhetorical.

“The Arab countries never miss an opportunity to stick it to Israel,” Freilich said, noting that Israel’s a member of the International Atomic Energy Agency with many Arab countries. “They bring it up and scream and shout and then they get on with it…Everybody has to get their one line that sounds good off for domestic consumption.”

I would look for Israel to be invited, to show up, and to have the Arab countries try to embarrass it over Israel's alleged nuclear program. And I would expect no help from President Obama.

Someone remind me again why he's doing this. It sounds like yet another disaster in the making.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 3:50 PM