Israel Matzav

Mullahs throwing Ahmadinejad under the bus?

In the final days leading up to the Iranian Presidential election it's beginning to appear that the Mullahs are throwing incumbent Mahmoud Ahamdinejad under the bus in favor of his 'reformist' rival Mir Hossein Mousavi.

This surge in open support for Mousavi's bid to defeat incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been facilitated in part by Ahmadinejad's successor as mayor of Teheran, Muhammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

Ghalibaf, a conservative and an Iran-Iraq war hero, has loosened rules to allow late-night campaigning and has hung white banners in the capital as spaces for political graffiti, benefiting Mousavi's young supporters, the Los Angeles Times reported earlier this week.

Now, in an open letter, Ghalibaf has called for the removal of all campaign posters promoting Ahmadinejad, saying his "lies" and "false accusations" are un-Islamic.

Ahmadinejad has charged that former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and the family of former parliament speaker Ali Akbar Nategh-Nouri's are guilty of corruption, and has issued allegations of a US plot to kidnap him in Iraq - claims that have left many reformist lawmakers asserting misconduct.

Rafsanjani, currently chairman of the Expediency Council - the power of which lies in its advisory role to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei - has called the accusations illegal, unethical and contrary to Shari'a.

On Wednesday in the capital, scores of men and women fearlessly danced, sang and stood on the roofs of their cars cheering for Mousavi, feats that not long ago would have gotten them 30 lashes from the Islamic police.

Teheran hasn't witnessed such events since Shah Muhammad Reza Pahlavi was in power. After 30 years of suffocation, young and old paraded, burning pictures of Ahmadinejad while blasting Persian pop music.

"We have not given up hope on Mousavi," the crowds chanted.

In sharp contrast, supporters of Ahmadinejad, including tens of thousands of Basiji militiamen, converged on the city's Grand Prayer Ground (Mosalla) and largest mosque on Wednesday, shouting slogans backing him and carrying the national flag.

The Mousavi supporters moved their party elsewhere after pro-Ahmadinejad people ran over four women bearing green ribbons, the symbol of reform.

Earlier this week, the Los Angeles Times reported that "reformists and conservatives within Iran's elite have joined forces" to wage a campaign to unseat Ahmadinejad, who is seen as driving the country to the brink of collapse with his populist economic policies and his confrontational stand towards the West.

They have used the levers of government to foil attempts by Ahmadinejad to secure funds for populist giveaways and to permit freewheeling campaigning that has benefited Mousavi. State-controlled television agreed to an unheard-of series of live debates, and the powerful Council of Guardians, which thwarted the reformist wave of the late 1990s, rejected a ballot box maneuver by the president that some saw as a prelude to attempted fraud.

Some called it a realignment of Iranian domestic politics from its longtime rift between reformists and conservatives to one that pits pragmatists on both sides against radicals such as Ahmadinejad.

"Some of the supporters of Mousavi like his ideas; others don't want Ahmadinejad," said Javad Etaat, a professor of political science and a campaigner for Mousavi. "They've decided that preserving the nation is more important than preserving the government."

Those involved in the effort say they have already outmaneuvered Ahmadinejad and his allies, including supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and gained the upper hand within Iranian institutions and among voters. Most analysts say that Khamenei, who has publicly stressed that he has only one vote in the election, is quietly supporting Ahmadinejad, though he is also concerned with public sentiment and trying to appear above the competition.

On Wednesday in Tehran, Ahmadinejad was heckled by Mousavi supporters. Let's go to the videotape.



The green strips are Mousavi's campaign symbol. I have no idea what they are shouting - if anyone speaks Persian, please put it in the comments.

Will it matter in the long run? Iran is dead-set on developing a nuclear capability regardless of who is elected. Having Mousavi in charge may change the tone of Iran's discussions with the West, which could actually hurt Israel because it might make the US and its allies even less willing to tolerate Israeli action against Iran's nuclear capabilities. In the end, I believe that even if Mousavi wins, he will take a path similar to that taken by Saad Hariri when it comes to Israel: 'I'm not going to be the one to make peace.'

A Muslim leader who is prepared to emulate Anwar Sadat by proactively making peace doesn't seem to exist today.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 9:17 AM