'Our' friends the Saudis?
This is the end of a column in Sunday's Washington Post by David Ignatius. As your read this, keep in mind the all important rule of survival in the Middle East: My enemy's enemy is my friend. Arabs and Israelis are equally nervous about Obama's opening to Iran. Both fear being sold out by Obama in his eagerness for Iranian help in stabilizing Iraq and Afghanistan. Israel's new prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, put down his marker on Iran last week in a tough interview with the Atlantic: Either you stop the Iranian nuclear problem, or we will.My bet is that Israel is going to 'go it alone' on Iran, and that it will then look quietly to Saudi Arabia and Egypt to help quell the resulting firestorm. And here's another bet: If Israel times its strike correctly, there won't be a meaningful, effective military response from Iran.
The Saudis, Egyptians and other Sunni Arab countries have been sending Obama a similar message. "We don't want a war with Iran," says one Saudi source. "But we are asking whether a U.S.-Iranian understanding will recognize our interests, or will it be at our expense?" The Saudis hope that if Obama's charm offensive toward Iran fails, it will be followed by tough action. "He's building a case against Iran," predicts the Saudi source.
Obama's speech in Turkey on Monday will signal the administration's desire for negotiations in the region. But the new president shouldn't raise the curtain until he has a little better idea what will happen on stage.
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 4:48 PM
2 Comments:
"If Israel times its strike correctly, there won't be a meaningful, effective military response from Iran".
Carl, without disclosing any defense secrets to which you may be privy, on what do you base this? My greatest concern is that following any military action by Israel, Iran will counter-attack with everything she's got as well by instructing her proxies Hizbullah and Hamas to launch their rocket arsenals.
I don't believe this should deter Israel as the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran is existential and Israel must be prepared to absorb significant losses to defeat that threat. But a country led by those who seek Armageddon and happily sent over 1 million of their young to die as martyrs in the war with Iraq is not likely to roll over.
Finance Doc,
Israel has an anti-missile defense. If it works accurately, nothing should reach us from Iran. I don't believe Iran can attack us any other way.
Did you think there would be retaliation from Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007? Why wasn't there?
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