Israel Matzav

Gulf States fear nuclear Iran more than war

Shavua Tov - a good week to everyone.

This was buried in the middle of a lengthy article in Thursday's al-Guardian that discussed the Gulf States' fear of a war among the US and Israel on the one hand, and Iran on the other hand. The article states that ecologically, Iranian retaliation would be a 'disaster' and that Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant is closer to six other Arab capitals than it is to Tehran. But here's the key passage.

Privately, things may be different: "If we have to choose between Iranian nuclear deterrence and intimidation, or accept military action as a solution, we'll accept military action," says [Mustafa] Alani [of the Gulf Research Centre in Dubai]. "We in the Gulf can live with Iranian retaliation for a week or a month. That's manageable compared to the possibility that Iran will be a nuclear power."

Israel, waging an intensifying propaganda campaign over Iran - and seeking to coax Syria away from its alliance with Tehran - likes to claim that "moderate" Arab states would support an attack on Iran's nuclear installations, though passive acquiescence is not the same as active support.

"We would not be participants," Alani says of the Gulf states. "We would be beneficiaries. But no one will say this in public. We don't want premature confrontation because we still believe there is a margin for a diplomatic solution."

Hmm. Sounds like the Gulf countries are thinking like Israel after all.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 10:02 PM