Israel Matzav

The 'Annapolis process:' 'Considerable progress' or an 'illusion'?

Earlier this evening, we were told that meetings between Prime Minister Ehud K. Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Feigele Livni, 'moderate' 'Palestinian' President Mahmoud Abbas Abu Mazen and chief 'Palestinian' negotiator Ahmed Qrei Abu Allah were going 'well' and that 'considerable progress' was being made.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Monday expressed readiness to make "tangible" changes in the West Bank, telling Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud that he understands that their months of peace talks must be accompanied by action on the ground, an Israeli official said.

Olmert and Abbas greeted each other warmly at the start of the two-hour meeting, held at Olmert's official residence in Jerusalem. The men embraced, Abbas signed the guest book, and Olmert bantered with Abbas' aides about European soccer teams before the beginning of the meeting at Olmert's Jerusalem residence.

...

After the meeting, an unnamed Jerusalem official reported that there had been "considerable progress on Israel and the Palestinian Authority's final borders and on security issues." However, he said that on the issue of refugees, the two sides were refusing to budge.

...

In a sign of progress, Palestinian negotiators on Sunday for the first time presented maps outlining what they envision as the borders of a future state, an official said.

He said the Palestinians want all of the West Bank as part of their state, but are ready to give up nearly 2 percent of the territory in exchange for an equal amount of land from what is now Israel.

Israel wants to keep parts of the West Bank in order to retain large Jewish settlements and for what it says are security needs. Maps presented by Israel several weeks ago sought to keep about 10 percent of the West Bank, the Palestinian official said. He said that despite the gaps, the maps indicated the sides are moving closer to a compromise on the issue of final borders. He spoke on condition of anonymity as the talks were closed.

But tonight the 'Palestinians' told a far different story:

Palestinian Authority officials said Monday that Israel was offering the Palestinians nothing more than a "mini-state of cantons" in parts of the West Bank.

The officials told The Jerusalem Post that Israel's proposals were "completely unacceptable" and "provocative."

They also claimed that the US Administration was supporting the Israeli position.

"Today it's clear to us that Israel has no intention of withdrawing from all the territories that were occupied in 1967," said one official.

"If the Israelis and Americans think that they will ever find a Palestinian leader who would accept less than the 1967 borders, they are living under an illusion."

Another top PA official said that maps presented by the Israeli government to the Palestinians in the past few weeks showed that Israel is planning to retain control over nearly half of the West Bank and large parts of east Jerusalem.

The Israeli maps, he said, "turn the Palestinian communities in the West Bank into cantons surrounded by Israeli military bases and large settlement blocks."

The official added: "We have made it clear to both the Israelis and Americans that they should throw away these maps. No Palestinian will ever agree to the presence of settlements or Israeli soldiers in the West Bank. This is in violation of [US President George W.] Bush's vision of two states living next to each other in peace."

The officials said they were unaware of dramatic changes in Israel's position regarding final status issues, adding that it was "premature" to talk about progress in the negotiations between the two parties.

They said they were surprised to hear reports in the Israeli media about certain progress that was ostensibly achieved during Monday's summit between Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

"Apparently Olmert's office is spreading these rumors to divert attention from the problems he's facing at home," the officials said, referring to the latest police investigation against Olmert.

"The Israeli government is not serious about the peace talks," said Yasser Abed Rabbo, a senior PLO official closely associated with Abbas. "We don't believe that we can reach an agreement [with Israel] before the end of this year."

Abed Rabbo accused Israel of "deceiving" the Palestinians by continuing to build settlements while talking about the need to reach a peace agreement. "Israel does not want to change its policy," he added. "Israel wants to continue settlement expansion and the construction of the separation wall."

Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat described the talks between Abbas and Olmert as "serious and thorough."

Erekat said Monday's talks focused on the final status issues. He said Abbas demanded an end to construction in the West Bank settlements and the reopening of closed PLO institutions in Jerusalem.

He said Abbas also demanded the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails, especially those who have been in prison for more than 20 years, as well as women, minors and political leaders such as Marwan Barghouti.

According to Erekat, Israel has agreed to grant residency status to 10,000 Palestinians who entered the West Bank and Gaza Strip over the past decade.

So what's really going on? For the most part, the 'Palestinians' are telling the truth. Israel is offering them much less than all of Judea and Samaria. That's happening for a few reasons, but the biggest one is that Olmert's goal in this entire exercise is not to make 'peace' (which even he knows cannot be made), but to keep President Bush happy and to keep himself in office. Olmert knows that if by some miracle he reaches a deal, it will have to be submitted to a referendum in one form or another - whether as new elections or as an up or down vote on the deal. Olmert is quite good at reading poll numbers, and he knows that a deal that gives the 'Palestinians' anything close to 100% of Judea and Samaria is not going to pass that referendum. The last thing he wants to do is reach a deal and then have it rejected and himself thrown out office.

The 'Palestinians' are correct that Israel has no intention of withdrawing to the 1967 lines. It cannot even if it wanted to because the 1967 borders are indefensible. For example, Israel cannot put itself in a position where a terrorist with a strella missile can shoot down a commercial aircraft taking off or landing at Ben Gurion Airport.

The amount of land which Israel proposes to retain for residential purposes is likely nowhere near 50% and is much closer to the 10% discussed in the first article. But retention of roads and security arrangements relating to them likely pushes the figure much higher and may even make it approach 50%. For example, it is inconceivable for Israel to give up Route 443 for the foreseeable future. The resulting traffic in the Jerusalem - Tel Aviv corridor would bring much of Israel's economy grinding to a halt. As it is, there is serious traffic congestion at the entrance to Tel Aviv from 6:30 - 11:00 AM every working day. Giving up Route 443 would make that congestion sixty kilometers long instead of twenty (starting just outside the airport where it currently starts). And Israel isn't going to start rebuilding Route 1 to go around Latrun either (see previous link).

Are the Americans backing Israel's position? I believe that they are, if for no other reason than the fact that they understand what a democracy is and they realize that Israelis really would vote down the offer Ehud Barak made to the 'Palestinians' at Camp David in 2000 (let alone the offer he made at Taba). Even the Americans realize that to this point, Israel has made all the 'concessions' while the 'Palestinians' haven't made any. So why is Condi insisting on things like removing road blocks? I think she's trying to show the 'Palestinians' that they should take what they can get and that if there's a deal, the US will make it as workable as possible for them and Israel will let them get around in whatever area they receive. But obviously she's playing fast and loose with Israeli lives by forcing the IDF to remove those roadblocks.

Is Olmert's office trying to distract attention from his legal troubles? You bet they are. The main news item here is that Tuesday there's going to be a major disclosure about Olmert's newest troubles - watch for it mid-to-late-morning on this blog. There's a court hearing Tuesday morning because the media are trying to get the gag order lifted, and although the police are opposed, my guess is that it will be at least partially lifted. Every assessment I have seen of what's due to come out describes it as "earth shaking." If Olmert goes, there are four candidates for his position in Kadima - a caretaker government headed by Livni, even with Barak's assistance, isn't going to fly. There will be new elections.

Abed Rabbo is wrong about one thing in the second article above. No one is deceiving him. Israel is continuing to build in areas it expects to retain in a 'final settlement.' He may not like that, and the Americans may shake their fingers about it, but it's kind of silly not to build when you know that there's no way you are going to give the area up. Israel has a housing shortage and people need places to live. They really have frozen building everyplace else. We know people who have been living in mobile homes beyond the 'security fence' for several years already.

The rest of the 'Palestinian' 'demands' in the second article are nonsense. Losers don't make demands.

As to the first article, I am sure there is no 'agreement' on 'refugees' and I don't expect there will ever be one. I doubt there will ever be an agreement on Jerusalem either - Arafat had that opportunity in 2000-01 and left it sitting on the table. Especially with the 'Palestinians' now asserting claims to the Western Wall, don't ever expect to see anything like what was offered in 2000 offered again.

So as between 'considerable progress' and an 'illusion' my vote is that the 'Annapolis process' is an illusion. While the 'Palestinians' keep making noise about waiting for the next American administration, that administration will likely be faced with a much more right wing Israeli government that will be much less inclined to make 'concessions' to the 'Palestinians' than Olmert. Recall that Netanyahu for most of his term in office refused to give the 'Palestinians' anything until they fought terror - and as we all know Abu Mazen is unwilling and unable to divide the 'Palestinian people' by fighting terror.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 12:46 AM