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Thursday, April 12, 2007

'Palestinian' emigration and birth rate defy demographic doomsayers

Yoram Ettinger, Israel's former consul general in Houston and an expert on demography, is reporting that demographic doomsayers like Dan Schueftan are way off base:
1. The assumption that Jews are doomed to become a minority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean has been based on grossly erroneous assumptions, including projected heavy net-immigration, over-projected Arab fertility rate and under-projected Jewish fertility rate. A 67% robust Jewish majority over 98.5% of the land west of the Jordan River (without Gaza) is a long-term documented phenomenon, benefiting from a demographic momentum.

2. According to Israel’s largest daily, “Yedioth Achronot” (April 8, 2007), and largely based on findings by the American-Israel Demographic Research Group (AIDRG, www.aidrg.com ):

* 38% of Palestinians wish to emigrate, according to a February 2007 survey conducted by A-Najah University in Nablus and a survey conducted by Nabil Kukali’s research center in Beit Sakhur. A September 2006 study, by Bir Zeit University, indicated that 44% of the 20-30 age group, and 32% of the total Palestinian population, want to emigrate.

*45,000 emigration requests were submitted to foreign Consulates during the second half of 2006.

* Yoram Ettinger, of AIDRG: until 2000 most emigrants were Christians, but since then most have been Moslems, bureaucrats, intellectuals and businessmen. Palestinian net-emigration has been a regional phenomenon since 1950.

* Palestinian annual average net-emigration has exceeded 10,000, reaching 16,000 in 2005, and a higher level in 2006, as a result of the January 2006 Hamas ascension to power. Emigration has increased substantially, while the PA has become the highest recipient of foreign aid per capita.

* Palestinian emigration increased during the oil price boom of the 1970s and declined during the oil price slump of the 1980s. The expulsion of 300,000 Palestinians from Kuwait, and the Oslo Accord, produced a rare brief net-immigration, but substantially lower than assumed (about 25,000 each). Unprecedented Palestinian terrorism – since Oslo and especially since 2000 – triggered higher net-emigration. The Norwegian institute for social research, FAFO, contended that net-emigration amounted to 100,000 during September 2000 and November 2002 [much higher than documented by AIDRG].

* 105,000 Palestinians received Israeli ID cards (through marriage) during 1997-2003, 150,000 since 1993 and over 250,000 since 1967.

3. According to Israel’s daily, Ha’aretz (April 12, 2007):

*The Jewish-Arab fertility gap has been reduced to one-child [down from a 6 children gap in the 1960s]!

*The 2006 “Green Line” Arab fertility rate is 3.6 children per woman (trending downward), compared with a 2.7 Jewish fertility rate (trending upward).
What's unsaid here is that the likes of Scheuftan will dismiss the increased Israeli fertility rate because it largely is caused by Haredim and revenants, both of whom tend to larger families. He doesn't consider them 'mainstream Israelis' or 'Israelis who count.'

'Nuff said.

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